[OC] Reliability diagram for an AI football prediction model — does "65% home win" actually mean 65%?
Built a football prediction model for the Big 5 leagues and wanted to verify it's actually calibrated.
The reliability diagram shows: when the model assigns X% probability to an outcome, does it happen X% of the time?
Data: 35,749 historical fixtures (Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, Ligue 1) Tools: XGBoost + Isotonic calibration, Python/matplotlib Current Brier score: 0.207
Full interactive version: matchmind.dev/track-record
u/DisastrousYard5949 — 3 days ago