u/DistributionClear164

I’ve been building NBA prop models for a while and rebound props have always been one of the more interesting ones to break down.

You can’t just model player averages, minutes, opponent rebounding rank, recent form, line value, etc.
I used to and hit the same roadblock for Rebounds every season, that’s when I found it’s the wrong starting point.

A guy can be an elite rebounder, but if the matchup pulls him away from the rim, the opponent does not miss much, or he is sharing the floor with another rebound vacuum, the average starts lying pretty fast.

I started testing rebound props less like:
“is this player a good rebounder?”
and more like:
“is this game going to create the right kind of rebound chances for his role?”
⚠️ The first filter that stood out was rest advantage for bigs.

Filter:
Centers / PFs
24+ min per game
2+ days rest
opponent on second night of a back-to-back
REB props only

2023-24 season:
104 qualifying games
Over hit 56.8%
Average line: 9.2
Average actual: 10.1
Delta: +0.9 rebounds
2024-25 season:
98 qualifying games
Over hit 58.1%
Average line: 9.4
Average actual: 10.4
Delta: +1.0 rebounds

Not some insane “retire tomorrow” edge, but it held across both seasons and the mechanism makes sense. The rested big isn’t always the better rebounder it’s just the environment is just better. (Not including Wembanyama)

That is the part I think people miss with rebound props.
They look at the player average, but the better question is where the available rebounds are coming from.

A missed rim attempt is not the same as a missed above-the-break three. A corner three does not rebound the same as a pull-up middy. A center guarding a stretch 5 is not in the same rebounding position as a center sitting near the rim all night. Or a forward playing next to a weak rebounding small-ball lineup is not the same as a forward sharing minutes with two glass cleaners.

Same player. Same line. Completely different rebound environment.

Player projects for 32 minutes, opponent creates above-average missed shot volume, matchup keeps him near the rim, no second rebounder is stealing boards, and the line is still priced near his season average.
That is a very edge opened bet.

Curious if anyone on reddit models rebounds this way?
I’m happy to share the SQL filters / schema if anyone wants to replicate it or poke holes in it.

Okay to be clear, I did \~$2M rev across all the business I launched in the 3 years and took home -30% profit. So take home roughly -$600k.

Now I had shiny object syndrome, I got a nice condo downtown, got a nice car, and swiped my card on way too many irrelevant purchases that kept compounding.

So for reference the business ventures I have started have all been interesting to say the least;

I launched a D2D sales company and scaled that across 4 states and to 40 employees at 18yrs old. I grew that to 7 figures and then shut it down after ethically growing tired of the issues with running sales teams.

I also launched a recruiting company that I ran in the same office, I kept that company pretty lean but was doing 5 figures MRR. But when I shut down the sales company I had to shit down the recruiting company aswell.

After shutting that down I launched a cry-pto software that was generating me 5 figures MRR for a few months, however after a dispute with my co-founder that turned south overnight.

Now since, I have been working on a startup idea me and my cofounder believe is Y-Combinator caliber. Yet we haven’t had any initial luck and it’s been now a year since I have made any serious money.

I have all the skills, I have a 148 IQ, an AI wizard, I know how to lead operations, close deals, public speaking, software engineering. Not to mention I am a workaholic, work life balance isn’t really for me, I will work till I retire extremely young and then live life out the rest. The only thing I can’t do is speak another language and I am working on it.

But like what do I do now? I don’t want to return to sales that’s my last resort, I don’t have the network to just find a high paying role somewhere.

Let me know yall’s thoughts or if you guys have questions

When news breaks, books move the obvious stuff fast and thats stars, role players take time. Primary beneficiary's line adjusts in 15 minutes. But the second and third order effects just sit there for 30-90 minutes, sometimes longer. That's where you eat.

Injury reports. A starter gets ruled out and everyone jumps on the next man up. Cool. But the third guard who goes from 12 to 22 minutes, the backup big who gets 8 more minutes of run, the wing whose usage ticks up because the offense runs through a different hub now, their props don't move for another 45-60 minutes. That's the window. Also: when a guy goes from probable to questionable, the public barely reacts because everyone assumes he'll play. When he goes from questionable to out, the public overreacts on the obvious beneficiary but completely misses the cascade effects. Look at the third and fourth guy in the usage chain, not the first.

Usage shifts. This is the most reliable edge I've found period. If a player's usage goes from 18% to 24% because the main ball handler went down, their counting stats jump like 30-35%. But the prop line might move 10-15% because the market is still stuck on season averages. This window lasts 3-5 games for obvious changes, 5-10 for subtle rotation stuff, sometimes 10-20 if it's genuinely under the radar. Last night Castle's assist line was 6.5, he dropped 12. His role shifted weeks ago and the line was pricing him like it was November. Champagnie's rebounding share basically doubled with rotation changes around Wemby, line still sat at 5.0, he pulled 12.

Starting lineups. Posted 30 minutes before tip. If a bench player gets a surprise start, their prop is still priced like they're coming off the bench. You're getting starter minutes at bench numbers. Window is 15-30 minutes and the good numbers vanish fast.

Pace. A fast team (102 possessions/game) against a slow team (96 possessions/game) has fewer scoring opportunities than season averages say. Small effect for points, maybe 1-2, but meaningful for rebounds and assists. If the pace gap is 6+ possessions and the rebound or assist line is sitting at the season average, the under on the fast team and the over on the slow team both carry edge. This one isn't time-limited, it's just there for the whole life of the line.

Rotation changes. A coach moves someone from bench to starter, cuts a veteran's minutes, goes small against certain matchups. The market takes 5-10 games to catch this because you can't see it from season averages. If a player's minutes jumped 5+ per game over the last 5 and the line moved less than 1 unit, they're probably mispriced. Especially in the first 2-3 games after a trade or long-term injury.

Back to backs and schedule stuff. Second night of a b2b, players see a real minutes drop (2-5 per game) and efficiency tanks. Altitude games in Denver crush visiting team stamina. Cross-country travel on short rest means slower pace and lower scoring. None of this gets priced into individual props consistently. Under on role players in b2b situations, especially guys whose minutes get cut first, hits over and over.

How I actually work this: injury reports and shootaround stuff in the morning. Active/inactive lists and lineups 30-60 minutes before tip. When news breaks, 15-30 minutes for the obvious plays, 60-90 for the cascade effects. Track usage and minutes over the last 5-10 games vs season averages and see if the market's caught up. The best spots are when both hit at the same time: a player whose role shifted recently who also gets a minutes bump from a late scratch that night.

okay hear me out, ill start by saying ive been profiting past 3yrs ina row before anyone comes for me in the comments, now lets say you flip a quarter 6 times (aka 6-legs) and that quarter has a 90% chance of landing on heads (aka moneyline -600 through -1000), well what do you think the chance is it lands on heads all 6 times?

well its about 50/50, you hear that? 50% chance all 6 quarters land on heads meaning my 6-leg is 50/50 now the only part that goes off the napkin is the props that are in those moneyline values and what your model/guy says about specifics in those rage but realistically;

~50/50 odds on a 3-6x and youre not doing any of this of extras, hope this helps what yall think though?

i’ve been messing with nba prop models for a while now and one thing that keeps standing out is that fg3m is way cleaner than people give it credit for.

not saying made threes are not volatile. they are. if you only look at makes, it looks disgusting.

but i think that is where people mess up.

fg3m should not be modeled like a shooting luck stat first. it should be modeled like an attempt environment stat.

the make is the output. the actual edge is usually before that.

the chain is more like:

minutes → role → 3pa volume → attempt type → creator availability → defensive allowance → line threshold

when you look at it like that, fg3m becomes a lot cleaner than points.

points are messy because there are too many ways for the outcome to happen. a guy can get there through free throws, transition, midrange, garbage time, usage spike, foul game, blowout run, whatever. there are a lot of hidden paths in a points prop.

fg3m is more discrete.

either the player is in a role where he is going to get repeatable 3pa or he is not.

that is why i think 3pa stability matters more than raw 3pt percentage for props.

if a player is projected for 6.5 to 8.5 attempts, and those attempts are mostly role generated, catch and shoot looks, corner looks, or spacing based volume from normal rotations, that is a way different bet than someone who needs self created pull ups to get there.

same line, completely different structure.

the part i’ve been testing more is threshold sensitivity.

1.5, 2.5, and 3.5 are not just different numbers. they are basically different bets.

for example:

2+ threes can be volume supported pretty often if the attempts are stable.

3+ starts needing either stronger volume or better shot quality.

4+ usually needs a very specific environment unless the player is an elite volume shooter.

so when people say “he is a good shooter” i think that is usually the least useful part of the read.

the better questions are:

- what is his realistic 3pa distribution tonight?
- is the volume stable in this rotation?
- are the attempts role generated or self created?
- are the creators who feed him active?
- does the defense allow his shot type, not just threes in general?
- does he need above average efficiency or just normal efficiency?
- did the line move from a playable threshold into a dead one?

that last one is big.

a lot of fg3m props die when the line moves up one threshold. people still treat it like the same pick because it is the same player, but it is not the same bet anymore.

that is probably the biggest thing i’ve noticed.

fg3m looks noisy if you model makes directly.

it looks a lot cleaner if you model attempt environment and then price the threshold.

curious if anyone else here separates fg3m from points/scoring props in their models. i feel like 3pa distribution and attempt quality are getting underweighted compared to generic scoring form.