Sal Stewart figured out what pitchers were doing to him in early May and adjusted.

If you've been wondering what happened to Sal in May like I was, the pitch data explains it. Pitchers came into the month with a plan: pitch him low-and-away, then sneak a fastball up and out of the zone once he started hunting the low pitch. In the first two weeks of May, it was working. He was chasing out-of-zone fastballs more than half the time (55%), his swing rate ballooned to nearly 55%, and his contact quality dropped.

Then something clicked around May 15. His overall chase rate got cut almost in half , his out-of-zone fastball chase went from 55% to 18%. He stopped fishing for changeups and sinkers out of the zone, too.

This fits who Sal Stewart actually is. His whole approach is built around being "late" on fastballs by design: he waits, lets the ball travel deeper in the zone, then drives it the other way instead of pulling (when he does barrel the ball to the pull side, the ball can go 441ft like it did today in Philly). When he's disciplined, pitchers have to come to him. When he was chasing in early May, he was he was whiffing and making bad contact due to the "late" nature of his swing mechanics.

The number to watch going forward is his chase rate on out-of-zone sliders. That's the one pitch he hasn't solved. It's running at -0.94 run value per 100 pitches for the season, and pitchers throw it to him 32% of the time. If his OOZ slider chase rate stays below 25%, I'd say his adjustment is sticky. If it climbs back toward 40%, expect some inconsistencies at the plate from him.

Full article with pitch zone chart and data breakdown

I spent this week trying to figure out what's actually wrong with Ke'Bryan Hayes, because the early-April "unluckiest hitter in baseball" pieces don't quite explain what I'm seeing anymore. The upshot, for Reds fans wondering whether to keep the faith:

Hayes overhauled his swing this winter. He's elevating the ball more than at any point in his career, squaring it up at the highest rate of any qualified hitter in the league, and his contact quality has jumped across the board. The mechanical change is real, and it's the kind of work most coaches would point to as a textbook adjustment.

The problem is where he's putting all that better contact. Hayes is still spraying the ball to all fields like he's a slap-hitter. He's also pounding fly balls 380 feet to dead center. He's not unlucky in the way the takes claimed. He's hitting the ball harder, in the air, to all the wrong places.

So the question for Reds fans isn't "when do the hits start falling," It's "can he learn to pull the ball." Either he turns on inside pitches more aggressively to pul the ball to left field where the field is shorter, or he walks the launch angle back toward where it was in 2023, when he sprayed the ball to all fields a hit .271. Either move gets him from "useful regular with a great glove" to a real middle-of-the-order third baseman. IMO, he's got to choose one because he doesn't have the natural power to do both.

If you watch one number the rest of this season, watch his hard-hit pull-air rate. That's the lever between the player projections wanted and the player his slash line has been telling us he is.

Full piece, with the charts here.

The Reds (23-21) head to Cleveland for a three-game set against the Guardians (24-21) starting tonight. It's the Ohio Cup, and both teams come in playing decent baseball, with the Guardians a half-game up in the AL Central and the Reds are fighting to get their early season mojo back.

JJ Bleday has been the hottest bat on the roster over the last two weeks (.319/.438/.744 with five homers and ten walks since the call-up from Louisville), and the underlying numbers say it's real. His expected slug agrees with the actual one and pitchers are already pitching around him. Watch his first at-bat each game, where he's been jumping on early-count fastballs. Elly De La Cruz (.884 OPS, 10 HR, 9 SB) is hitting .339 over the last 14 days but with zero homers. If you predicted a .299 average halfway through May, congrats. Watch what he does on borderline pitches against Cleveland's breaking stuff.

Sal Stewart's April fire has cooled (.166 with 14 K's over the last two weeks), and pitchers have started attacking him with sliders. The full-season profile is still a Rookie of the Year frontrunner, but fans should watch his breaking-ball recognition. Spencer Steer has been steady (.300 in May with the expected average sitting in the 85th percentile), pulling breaking stuff with authority. Watch how Cleveland's lefties attack him. Nathaniel Lowe's April thunder has gone quiet (.176 with 17 K's lately), with his chase rate creeping up against breaking stuff. Lowe has always been streaky, with hot months and cold ones running through his career, so this stretch isn't out of pattern. The Reds need that bat back.

Matt McLain is still pressing (.664 OPS) but the bat has perked up in the last 14 days with a couple of homers and a good walk rate. TJ Friedl's bat has been a problem (.537 OPS, .176 in May) but his defense in center is rock-solid. Tyler Stephenson is search for consistency. Watch whether he can lay off the slider down and away. Also keep an eye on Blake Dunn, who's swung a hot bat in his first MLB stretch, including a homer and a steal.

On the mound, Andrew Abbott gets the ball tonight (4.47 ERA, 4.38 FIP). Two recent gems, and the changeup is the put-away pitch. Chris Paddack goes tomorrow in his first start as a Red (7.63 ERA, 4.97 FIP). His ERA is terrible but his FIP says some of it is bad luck...he lives 92-94 with a deep mix. He has to hit his spot to succeed. Brady Singer wraps it up Saturday (5.79 ERA, 6.18 FIP) and his sinker keeps getting hammered. The slider is the one pitch working consistently. He hasn't put together back-to-back clean outings, so watch whether Cleveland sits on the sinker early.

The Guardians counter with Tanner Bibee tonight (4.17 ERA), who bounced back from a rough outing with nine strikeouts over six against Minnesota. The changeup is his put-away pitch. Gavin Williams goes tomorrow (3.74 ERA) and he's been hittable lately, with five earned runs in back-to-back starts. The fastball still touches 99 with ride, but he's leaving too many in the zone. He can play it well against his changeup, though. Joey Cantillo (2.98 ERA) wraps it up Saturday and he's on a heater. He's a lefty without overpowering velocity, so the Reds should make him throw strikes and drive his pitch count up.

Regarding the Guardians lineup, Chase DeLauter is the most dangerous bat right now (.380/.458/.547 over the last two weeks). He doesn't chase, he barrels what he swings at, and Reds pitchers will need to bury everything off the plate. José Ramírez (.706 OPS, 6 HR, 18 SB) is in a quiet stretch at the plate (.170 lately) but the eye hasn't gone anywhere...11 walks in the last two weeks. He's a probable Hall of Famer and a Guardians legend already, and you ignore him at your peril. Rhys Hoskins is hitting .160 over the last two weeks, but has two homers and nine walks in that stretch. And watch Travis Bazzana, the 2024 first overall pick who's two weeks into his big league career. He's hitting .256 with ten walks already, and the plate approach the got him into the Show is apparent. The Aussie lefty's swing is smooth and he can run.

Full heat check with every player card, stat breakdowns, and series projections at exit-velo.com.

The Reds (22-19) host the Nationals (19-22) for a three-game set starting tonight. Cincinnati is coming off a series win against Houston after an eight-game losing streak.

Elly De La Cruz (.875 OPS, 10 HR, 9 SB) continues to hit the ball as hard as almost anyone in the sport and is electric. Sal Stewart has ten homers and keeps alternating between quiet stretches and violent explosions...the strikeout rate is creeping up and it looks like pitchers are starting to adjust to him. Let's see if he adjusts back. JJ Bleday has been the hottest bat on the roster since getting regular at-bats, with a 1.035 OPS and four homers. The exit velocity spike is real and the swing changes from Triple-A are translating. Nathaniel Lowe has six bombs and an .877 OPS...he's been crushing everything over the middle. Spencer Steer's power surge continues with seven homers after hitting 17 all last year, barrel rate and exit velocity both up from 2025.

TJ Friedl's bat has been inconsistent (.541 OPS) but his defense in CF is rock solid. Tyler Stephenson is in the same boat...hitting the ball hard but nothing is falling. I'm sure he's as frustrated as fans are. Also keep an eye on Blake Dunn, the recent call-up who homered in his first week and swings hard enough to do damage if he gets at-bats. I always forget how fast he is on the base paths.

On the mound, Brady Singer gets the ball tonight (2-2, 5.63 ERA). The sinker has been getting hit hard and the slider is the only pitch working consistently. He hasn't put together back-to-back clean outings yet, so watch whether Washington sits on that sinker early. Nick Lodolo goes tomorrow in his second start back from the IL...his return against Houston was shaky, but when the curveball is right it's unhittable. Our guy needs to get his walks under control. Chase Burns wraps it up Wednesday (4-1, 2.11 ERA, 9.2 K/9). His revamped slider generates swings like crazy and he can throw it in the zone for strikes now, and he just proved against the Astros that he can carry a game by himself.

The Nationals counter with Miles Mikolas tonight, the veteran who signed with Washington after years in St. Louis. He's been getting hit hard (7.44 ERA) and lives on location rather than velocity...if the Reds are patient and wait for pitches over the plate, he's very hittable. Jake Irvin starts tomorrow with a 5.22 ERA but a 9.3 K/9...the curveball generates whiffs, but the fastball and sinker get crushed. Foster Griffin is the guy I'm most interested in. He's a soft-tossing lefty with seven different pitches, a 2.12 ERA, and terrific results so far, but the underlying numbers suggest he's on thin ice. If the Reds can identify his pitches early, the whole thing falls apart.

Regarding the Nationals lineup, James Wood is the most physically gifted hitter Cincinnati will face all series (.917 OPS, 11 HR, 7 SB). He combines raw power, bat speed, and his plate discipline has improved this season. CJ Abrams has been scorching the ball (.916 OPS, 9 HR, 7 SB) and is dangerous when he gets ahead in counts, though the glove at shortstop remains a liability. I expect Larkin will have a thing or two to say about that. Nasim Nunez has 17 stolen bases but has almost no power...he's a pure speed threat who can change a game on the bases. And watch Brady House, who has five homers and raw power but is still figuring out how to put it all together consistently.

Full heat check with every player card, stat breakdowns, and series projections.

Edit: Got the records wrong. Time to commit seppuku.

I wrote a deep dive on what Burns has actually changed between 2025 and 2026, using all 719 pitches from his eight starts this season. Three things stood out:

1. The slider is elite now. Burns's slider has evolved over the offseason. He traded sweep for depth while maintaining the same velocity. As a result, he's able to locate it in the zone for strikes, and he's generating more whiffs and more run value. Against righties, half the swings against his slider are misses. I think it's the best breaking ball on the Reds' staff right now.

2. He moved his release point ~4 inches toward center and compressed the gap between pitches. This affects his entire arsenal and makes his pitches tunnel better. Although he rarely throws his change, the gap between it and where his fastball leave his hand compressed from 5.2 inches to 3.2. The gap between his fastball and slider release points are also slightly tighter. Batters have less time to distinguish pitch types.

3. The changeup is the one thing holding him back. The shape and velo are improved, but the command isn't there yet. His changeup ball rate is 42.6%, so he can't throw it for strikes consistently. That matters most when lefties see him a third time through the order. They just sit fastball and he can't punish them with the change.

The realistic outlook: The 2.11 ERA will likely regress, which is totally fine and expected at this point in his development. FIP is 3.77, projections say 3.82–3.98 ROS. He'll be lights out some weeks and uneven others. That's fine for a 23-year-old with less than a year of service time.

The obvious comp is Hunter Greene, who survived as a two-pitch starter because his stuff is nasty and he learned to locate. Burns is on the same path but arguably has a higher ceiling if he's more durable than Greene. If the changeup develops, I think Paul Skenes-level production is the ceiling (not Skenes' arsenal, but that kind of output).

The numbers I'm watching are his changeup ball% and his in-zone Whiff% on the slider. I think he only needs to hold or improve one of these metrics to outperform his projections and x-stats. If he keeps throwing the change, and his ball% drops below 35% by mid-June, I think a legit third pitch had landed. If it doesn't, he's still a 23-year-old who rebuilt his slider in one offseason.

Full article with charts and more detail: https://exitvelo.us/articles/chase-burns-has-one-problem-left.html

The Reds (20-18) come home for a three-game set against the Astros (15-23) starting tonight. Cincinnati just finished a brutal road trip in Pittsburgh and Wrigley.

The lineup still revolves around Elly De La Cruz (.847 OPS, 10 HR, 8 SB), who's been hitting the ball as hard as almost anyone in the sport but went through some quiet stretches on the road trip. Sal Stewart is cooling off after a monster April...he went hitless in Pittsburgh and stayed quiet at Wrigley. To me, it looks like pitchers have started throwing him more junk on the edge of the strike zone to disrupt his timing and get him to chase bad pitches. Sal needs to show a little more patience, because he seems to be pressing more than he was before.

JJ Bleday and his revamped swing are hot right now, but it's still a small sample size. Four homers in 39 PA since getting regular at-bats, with a 1.138 OPS and an exit velocity spike since last season. It's unfolding just as I thought, and he looks good as long as he keeps hitting the ball in the air. Nathaniel Lowe has six bombs and has been crushing everything he swings at, though he went quiet in Pittsburgh before bouncing back at Wrigley. Spencer Steer's power surge continues...six homers after hitting 17 all last year, with barrel rate and exit velocity both up. I don't think he was 100% last season, so this is good to see. Also keep an eye on Dane Myers, who's been elite in contact quality every time he gets in the lineup.

On the mound, Chase Burns gets the ball tonight (3-1, 2.20 ERA, 10.1 K/9). The slider is unhittable right now and the fastball sits upper 90s. Andrew Abbott goes tomorrow and it's been a coin flip every start...the changeup is still a weapon, but everything else is getting hit (5.13 ERA). He's looked excellent recently, so let's see if he keeps building on that success. Nick Lodolo returns from the IL for the series finale, blank slate, no idea what we're getting but when he's right the curveball is nasty. Unfortunately that curve relies on a pitch grip that's given him blisters, so we'll see if a modified grip will be as effective as before.

The Astros counter with Mike Burrows tonight, whose ERA (5.97) is lying. His changeup and curveball both fool hitters and the underlying numbers say he's been genuinely unlucky, but the fastball gets crushed when hitters sit on it. Spencer Arrighetti (4-0, 1.96 ERA) is a house of cards...he walks way too many guys (5.5 BB/9) and the ball is getting hit hard when it's in play. The curveball is elite, everything else is a disaster waiting to happen. Peter Lambert is the one who's actually pitching well with legitimate command of his sinker-slider mix. Ultimately, the Reds can beat these guys if they're patient...easier said than done.

Regarding the Astros lineup, Yordan Alvarez is the most dangerous hitter Cincinnati will face all series. He hits the ball harder than almost anyone alive, but he is cooling off a little. Christian Walker has been mashing with a violent swing and Gold Glove defense at first. Isaac Paredes has the slowest bat swing in baseball and somehow it works...he sees everything and rarely misses. And watch Cam Smith, who swings the bat faster and runs faster than almost anyone in the lineup but hasn't fully translated the tools into production yet. Brice Matthews posts competitive ABs and is dangerous on the base paths...he also has sneaky power.

Full heat check with every player card, stat breakdowns, and series projections.

I wasn't able to find the time to write one of these up for the Pirates series...work's been nuts and it's birthday party season for the kids. Luckily, I just finished this one up:

The Reds head to Wrigley Field for an important four-game set against the Cubs starting Sunday. Cincinnati is looking to bounce back after getting swept by the Pirates, while the Cubs just swept Arizona and have won five straight.

The lineup still runs through Elly De La Cruz (.890 OPS, 10 HR, 8 SB), who just became the first player since 1900 to reach 115 extra-base hits and 115 stolen bases in his first 300 career games. Sal Stewart is the NL Rookie of the Month after barely striking out and walking at a career-best rate. The bat-to-ball skills are absurd for someone this young. Nathaniel Lowe has been feast or famine...five homers in eight games against Tampa and Detroit, then striking out in more than half his at-bats against Colorado and Pittsburgh.

Spencer Steer has been getting steadier every week with his barrel rate and exit velocity both up from last year. JJ Bleday came back from Triple-A and just started mashing with two homers in his last two series with his exit velocity against Pittsburgh jumping to 107. Also watch his platoon-mate Dane Myers, who has one of the best contact quality scores on the team despite limited plate appearances.

Chase Petty gets the ball Sunday in what amounts to a second chance after a brutal 2025 (19.50 ERA in three MLB starts). His 2026 AAA numbers have been encouraging (nearly 11 K/9 with an improved K-to-walk ratio) but Wrigley against a hot Cubs team is a tough draw for a 23-year-old. Andrew Abbott follows Monday, and each start has been a coin flip: six innings of two-run ball against Colorado, then seven runs in three innings against the Angels. Brady Singer goes Tuesday, followed by Rhett Lowder the next day. Nick Lodolo is predicted to return to the rotation on Thursday, thank God.

The Cubs counter with Edward Cabrera on Sunday, whose curveball and changeup both generate whiffs at an elite rate but whose command can waver. Jameson Taillon goes Monday. His sweeper has been nearly unhittable, but when his 93 mph fastball drifts to the middle of the zone, it gets crushed. Colin Rea has worked his way from bulk reliever to starter. He induces a fair number of grounders, but he's actually getting hit pretty hard. Shota Imanaga will start the final game, and IMO he's the hottest pitcher the Reds will face this series.

Regarding the Cubs lineup, Ian Happ has the most complete bat with an elite walk rate, real power, and patience to work deep counts. Moisés Ballesteros is surging this season. He's a young catcher/DH with a .597 slugging and a barrel rate that has nearly doubled from last year. Keep an eye on Seiya Suzuki, who is heating up since coming off the IL (knee) with a .928 OPS and a compact swing that plays well at Wrigley. PCA continues to look like Skinny Pete from Breaking Bad.

Full heat check with every player card, stat breakdowns, and series projections.

The Rockies come to Great American Ball Park for a three-game set starting Monday. The Reds are 18-10 and have won four of their last six heading into the off day.

The lineup still runs through Sal Stewart (.987 OPS, 9 HR) and Elly De La Cruz (.907 OPS, 9 HR), who continues to hit the ball harder than almost anyone in the major leagues. Stewart is the NL Rookie of the Year frontrunner, alternating between quiet stretches and five-RBI explosions. Elly's strikeouts are still elevated, but when he connects, nothing leaves the park faster.

Chase Burns gets the ball Monday with a 2.57 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 28 innings. He got hit around by the Angels but has been dominant in every other start, including shutting out the Giants and striking out eight Rays. The slider is the pitch. If Colorado's free-swinging lineup chases it, this could be a short night for the Rockies.

Brandon Williamson goes Tuesday, and the walks have been the story: six against the Angels, four against the Twins. He survived Minnesota allowing just one run, but the Rays tagged him in his last outing.

Andrew Abbott wraps it up Wednesday, and each start has been rougher than the last. Seven runs against the Angels, three against the Twins, five against the Tigers. The changeup still works, but the fastball is getting crushed. Colorado is a forgiving matchup, but he needs to get ahead early.

The Rockies counter with Tomoyuki Sugano on Monday, the veteran who came over from Japan. The splitter is his out pitch, but the Dodgers tagged him for five runs and nine hits when they jumped on him early. If the Reds are aggressive in the first few innings, they can get to him.

Kyle Freeland goes Tuesday with a 2.30 ERA through three starts, each one better than the last. He's a sinker-and-command lefty who paints corners rather than overpowering anyone. The Reds need to stay patient and make him work deep into counts.

Wednesday is Michael Lorenzen, the former Red returning to GABP. He pitched here from 2015 to 2021 and the crowd will remember him. He's trending up, capped by seven innings of one-run ball against the Mets. Reds hitters know his changeup. If they can lay off it and force the fastball, they'll have their chances.

Mickey Moniak is the hottest hitter on the roster (1.036 OPS, 8 HR) and is on a tear, though the underlying numbers don't fully support the production. Hunter Goodman has 7 homers and elite raw power, but the strikeout rate is nearly 38 percent, so he's boom-or-bust in every at-bat. Worth watching: Edouard Julien, the former Twin who has one of the lowest chase rates on the team and makes pitchers work.

On the Reds side, Spencer Steer has been getting louder every week, with his best exit velocity and production coming in the last two series. Ke'Bryan Hayes finally broke out of a brutal slump with a 1.159 OPS in Tampa Bay after going hitless in Minnesota, then kept it going with a solid series against Detroit. The underlying quality has been respectable all month, so the question is whether the last two weeks were a real turning point or just a hot stretch. Also watch Dane Myers, who has one of the lowest chase rates in the lineup and some of the best contact quality on the team despite limited plate appearances. Keep an eye out on his platoon-mate JJ Bleday to see if his swing adjustments from AAA translate to more MLB production.

Full heat check with every player card, stat breakdowns, and series projections.

So Bleday's swing change last year in Oakland backfired pretty badly, and his spring training numbers in Arizona were somehow even worse: 56% ground balls. The guy was beating the ball into the dirt and getting away with it when he occasionally elevated.

Then the Reds optioned him and he rebuilt his swing. His ground-ball rate in Louisville dropped to 16.7%, his line-drive rate jumped to 38.3%, and his exit velocity averaged 93.7 mph, which is five full mph above his career MLB average. He was hitting .341/.462/.659 with a 194 wRC+ when they called him up. That 2026 AAA column in the table is wild compared to everything else.

Small samples, sure, but the direction is dramatic. The thing I'm watching is his ground-ball rate. Under 30% in a Reds uniform means the Louisville swing made the trip. Back above 40% means he's reverted to the version that didn't work.

I wrote a full breakdown with the swing data, career tables, and what went wrong in 2025: https://exitvelo.us/articles/meet-jj-bleday.html](https://exitvelo.us/articles/meet-jj-bleday.html)