u/DrCesarMg91

What tracking CLV taught me about my own "edge" (a humbling writeup)
Built a Poisson-ELO model for football and tracked closing line value on every pick. Two lessons that hurt: (1) my "+14% CLV" on cards was a mirage — median was 0%, all outliers from stale thin-market lines. (2) The real, repeatable edge lives in secondary markets (corners), not 1X2 where books are razor-sharp.
Anyone else find their edge evaporates once you filter for line liquidity + min bookmakers? Curious how you gate for stale lines.