https://www.freightright.com/news/carriers-hold-firm-on-fuel-surcharges-despite-emerging-us-iran-peace-plans-tfx-update-wk-june-15-2026

The Lead:

The mid-point of June 2026 demonstrated that the world is moving away from broad, sweeping border surcharges toward highly targeted, regulatory trade walls. The United States actively advanced its strategy to replace expiring emergency surcharges with permanent Section 301 labor tariffs, while successfully utilizing massive Section 232 pharmaceutical duties to force international drug manufacturers into onshoring commitments. Simultaneously, the European Union acted to protect its internal market on two fronts: by closing the de minimis loophole with a new €3 flat fee on low-value online imports, and by advancing the Turnberry trade deal to secure lasting tariff peace with Washington. Ultimately, the week proved that the global economy is functioning within a highly legalistic centralized trade architecture in the West, where access to prime consumer markets requires meeting strict labor, safety, and supply-chain origin mandates. 

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The transpacific ocean freight market has officially entered a higher pricing bracket, confirming the expiration of $6,000 spot rates. Over the past week, ocean freight rates from China to both North American coasts experienced a steep climb, driven by heavy volume increases in the first half of June. 

CEA to USWC: Spot rates have broken past previous thresholds and are now officially confirmed in the low $6,000s per FEU. 

CEA to USEC: Rates to the East Coast have pushed even higher, settling firmly into the mid-$7000s per FEU. 

For comparison, Gulf Coast rates are mirroring the East Coast in the mid-$7,000s, while inland moves to the Midwest (e.g., Chicago) have reached $8,000 to $8,400. 

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $5,750 from China to US West Coast and $6,400 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

https://preview.redd.it/lx7oic1vio7h1.png?width=1076&format=png&auto=webp&s=90803209c8fcc40efb159b0c4046715792811da8

https://preview.redd.it/diue3ioxio7h1.png?width=1007&format=png&auto=webp&s=89e418d8fd3529f5f2b50db7ddebeb152241100c

https://preview.redd.it/ca150kszio7h1.png?width=995&format=png&auto=webp&s=690da9d7f5a892b4a5de8199f6c3c80cc814ed59

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Peak Season Front-Loading: Carriers reported a significant spike in cargo volumes during the first half of June. This surge is largely attributed to shippers front-loading their inventory early to avoid peak-season bottlenecks, which directly triggered carrier GRI implementations for the second half of the month.  
• Port Congestion & Rolled Cargo: Ongoing backlog from previous weeks continues to choke the network. This legacy congestion has triggered heavy rolling of bookings, severely degrading schedule reliability. 
• Strict Dynamic Quoting: Due to the daily volatility in space availability, standard quotes are no longer guaranteed. Logistics providers are forcing a subject to roll and availability clause, as space secured one day is often entirely gone by the next.

 

Looking Ahead:

The immediate outlook points to sustained upward pressure and prolonged volatility. Shippers should abandon expectations for a quick rate correction; carriers have just successfully pushed rates into the $6,000–$7,000+ range and will be highly resistant to lowering them, likely citing ongoing market uncertainty to justify keeping current fuel surcharges and base rates intact.

Furthermore, because booking backlogs are already stretching lead times out significantly, with some agents quoting the beginning of July as the earliest available space, shippers must plan and book several weeks in advance to secure equipment and vessel space. Even if the geopolitical situation in the Middle East stabilizes and a formal peace deal is signed by the end of the week, the lag in carrier operational adjustments means the earliest the market would see any tangible impact or relief on fuel surcharges would be late next week or early July. 

In the News:

WSJ: The Global Economy Is Threatened Again by Trade Imbalances
https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/the-global-economy-is-threatened-again-by-trade-imbalances-b996bc00 

NY Post: Trump warns France in exclusive interview with The Post: Kill tech tax or face 100% wine tariffs: ‘I have no choice’
https://nypost.com/2026/06/15/business/trump-warns-france-in-exclusive-interview-with-the-post-kill-tech-tax-or-face-100-wine-tariffs/ 

The Guardian: Me, worry? For US small businesses, Trump’s tariffs are now a non-issue
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/14/small-business-trump-tariffs 

Reuters: Macron maintains France will not bend to Trump over digital tax
https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-warns-france-kill-tech-tax-or-face-100-wine-tariffs-ny-post-reports-2026-06-15/ 

The Economist: A trade war between the EU and China seems inevitable
https://www.economist.com/europe/2026/06/11/a-trade-war-between-the-eu-and-china-seems-inevitable 

Subscribe for weekly updates from Freight Right.

The Lead:

Global economy adjusts to a highly transactional centralized trade architecture dictated by the US, forcing other major powers to solidify a multipolar landscape of alternative alliances. Seeking to shield its automotive and industrial sectors from American pressure, the European Union successfully brokered a major concession pact with Washington to cap general tariffs at 15%, while simultaneously signing a sweeping free-trade expansion with Mexico to open up non-US supply chains. This regional buffering was mirrored in South Africa’s aggressive hike of domestic steel tariffs to maximum WTO levels and China’s expanding zero-tariff framework with Africa. Collectively, the week proved that while the US continues to weaponize its market through strict new full value metal duties and targeted Section 301 labor probes, the rest of the world is adapting through hyper-localized regional pacts designed to bypass Washington entirely.  

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The transpacific container spot market is holding steady at highly elevated levels as the month of May comes to a close, maintaining the standard baseline established over the last few weeks.  

CEA to USWC: Rates are expected to go up to $4,600 per FEU by end of this month to early June.

CEA to USEC: Similarly, rates from CEA to USEC is also expected to increase from $4,500 per FEU to around $5,800 by the start of next month.

This current stability this end of May is acting as the calm before an impending storm. Multiple major carriers have issued aggressive General Rate Increase (GRI) indications for June. 

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $3,300 from China to US West Coast and $4,600 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

https://preview.redd.it/1719rg50824h1.png?width=1093&format=png&auto=webp&s=00d36bb7030d8ab90a2ce7612b0d36b4297d314e

https://preview.redd.it/a21463p0824h1.png?width=1004&format=png&auto=webp&s=9334a9513f348913d1087e29d3562254ea1396bf

https://preview.redd.it/ylqvua51824h1.png?width=1005&format=png&auto=webp&s=f6d2f3e5a2998229f01efc71e1e6ade81c1091c9

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• The "Traffic Jam" Ripple Effect: Ocean carrier loops originate in China before moving down to Southeast Asian hubs like Vietnam and Thailand. Delays and schedule disruptions on the Chinese leg are creating a highway-style traffic jam, triggering rolling delays and congestion throughout secondary Southeast Asian markets.
• Widespread Container Rolling: Carriers are systematically booking cargo and implementing "blanked" or changed vessel rotations only after containers are checked into the terminal. Because the equipment is locked behind customs control inside the terminal, shippers are trapped and unable to pull their cargo to switch carriers, forcing them to wait out weekly delays.
• Summer Peak and Hospitality Demand: Importers with hard seasonal requirements, specifically those handling summer peak retail products and hospitality supply chains, are aggressively pushing cargo forward regardless of price premiums, inflating short-term demand.
• Geopolitical and Fuel Pressures: Rising fuel costs driven by Middle Eastern volatility, alongside complex vessel diversions, continue to establish a high structural floor for operating costs.

Looking Ahead:

The structural setup for June points toward a brutal, highly compressed freight environment. Shippers should expect volume numbers to slide as non-essential importers choose to pause and wait out the market spikes until July or later. However, for freight forwarders, this drop in volume will likely be counterbalanced by expanding cash margins, as generating fixed percentages on a $6,000 rate container yields significantly better dollar returns than on a sub-$2,000 container.

The primary metric to watch over the next two to three weeks will be carrier capacity management. If ocean lines successfully maintain strict blank sailing counts and keep vessel rotations tightly restricted, the $4,800 (USWC) and $6,000 (USEC) thresholds will become reality. If carriers soften their blanking strategy and ease capacity constraints, the rate market is likely to cap out below the terrifying $5,000 mark. Shippers must also keep an eye on upcoming tariff timelines; with key 10% structural tariff exemptions expected to expire around July, any subsequent shifts in trade policy could heavily influence late-summer booking behavior.

In the News:

Bloomberg: The Race for US Tariff Refunds Gets Off to a Quiet Start
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-05-26/trump-tariff-refunds 

CNBC: Trump said he'd 'remember' companies that didn't apply for tariff refunds. Many of them are anyway
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/22/trump-tariff-refunds-walmart-home-depot-target-apply.html 

Financial Times: The power struggle in the world’s narrow seas
https://ig.ft.com/maritime-chokepoints/ 

Reuters: Mexico, EU sign stalled trade deal as they aim to diversify from US
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexico-eu-sign-stalled-trade-deal-they-aim-diversify-us-2026-05-22/  

WSJ: World Trade Grew Strongly at Start of Year on AI Boom
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/world-trade-grew-strongly-at-start-of-year-on-ai-boom-c522479c 

Subscribe for weekly updates from Freight Right.

full article: https://www.freightright.com/news/ocean-freight-rates-double-since-march-as-carriers-aggressively-squeeze-capacity-tfx-update-wk-may-18-2026

The Lead:

Mid-May 2026 saw a dramatic intersection of legal reprieve, aggressive threats, and targeted diplomacy defining global commerce. The US executive branch successfully stabilized its immediate economic policy as an appellate court paused a ruling that had briefly neutralized the nation's 10% global surcharge. Empowered by this judicial lifeline, Washington escalated its transactional pressure on Europe by threatening to raise tariffs on EU automobiles to 25%, citing unmet trade concessions. However, the week’s most significant breakthrough occurred in Asia, where a high-profile summit culminated in China committing to buy $17 billion annually in U.S. agricultural goods. This massive purchase agreement offers a strategic cushion to American farmers, even as China's overall share in the U.S. import market continues to crater under the weight of a near-37% effective tariff rate. 

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The ocean freight market has experienced sharp week-over-week rate increases across major lanes from China/East Asia (CEA) to North America. Spot rates to both coasts have surged, effectively doubling compared to early March baselines where pricing sat around $1,600 to $1,700 per container.  

CEA to USWC: Rates increased by roughly $500 to $600, bringing the current pricing to $2,800–$3,400 per container. 

CEA to USEC: Rates have climbed to $3,700–$4,500 per container.

While a few special agency rates remain scattered across the market, ocean capacity is severely constrained.

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $2,800 from China to US West Coast and $3,787 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

https://preview.redd.it/ctjte0nz713h1.png?width=1090&format=png&auto=webp&s=698cae3fae8475727c2903198cc595f4a2f2746d

https://preview.redd.it/tmfp57m0813h1.png?width=1333&format=png&auto=webp&s=7301bcbdc06532bee703e4054c380a27fff08d94

https://preview.redd.it/3cnpuoa1813h1.png?width=1328&format=png&auto=webp&s=aa3b5947e04d6728014a7846b9fa96a6959edbb9

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Artificial Capacity Cuts: The sudden spike in rates is not driven by an influx of consumer demand or improving market volumes, which remain relatively flat. Instead, carriers have intentionally pulled vessels out of rotation, creating an immediate space shortage that has forced prices upward.
• Extreme Space Tightness and Rolled Cargo: Vessel space is extraordinarily tight across all major shipping lanes. Carriers are heavily restricting space approvals, resulting in a massive surge of rolled shipments across the industry.
• Involuntary "Summer Product" Shipments: Importers of highly seasonal summer goods have reached a critical point in their product lifecycles and have no choice but to ship immediately to avoid missing their sales windows.

Looking Ahead:

The short-term outlook indicates further friction for typical importers. Carriers have already signaled intent to push rates even higher moving into June, a sign that they anticipate capacity restrictions will successfully hold.

If this upward trajectory persists through June, it could fundamentally disrupt the traditional Q3 peak season (July through September). Because shippers are scrambling to pull demand forward right now out of fear of future space shortages, the industry may see a flat or non-existent peak season later this summer. This would mark the second or third consecutive year where traditional seasonal shipping patterns have dissolved in favor of artificial, carrier-driven market cycles.

A potential demand buffer may arrive in approximately two months as government tax refunds flow back into the market, potentially stimulating consumer spending and easing liquidity constraints for smaller importers. Until then, only enterprise brands with massive negotiating leverage or seasonal shippers with zero scheduling flexibility will maintain consistent volume, leaving the rest of the market sidelined.

In the News:

Bloomberg: US Asks to Keep Collecting Trump’s Tariffs After Court Loss
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-11/us-asks-to-keep-collecting-trump-s-new-tariffs-after-court-loss 

New York Times: Trump Touts ‘Fantastic Trade Deals’ With China, but Details Are Scarce
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/15/business/economy/trump-china-deals.html 

AP News: Trump and Xi dialed down the trade war, but challenges lurk at their China summit
https://apnews.com/article/trump-xi-china-summit-trade-tariffs-2eee658298ba8f064fe232e8832bd2ea 

Reuters: China signals tariff cuts, advances in farm market access after Trump-Xi summit
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-signals-tariff-cuts-advances-farm-market-access-after-trump-xi-summit-2026-05-16/ 

WSJ: China Says It Has Agreed With U.S. to Set Up Trade and Investment Bodies
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-says-it-has-agreed-with-u-s-to-set-up-trade-and-investment-bodies-f4752b03 

Subscribe for weekly updates from Freight Right.

Foreign trade for the U.S. is facing legal headwinds and threatening to upend the nation's leverage against foreign trading partners. Following some comprehensive research, I was able to map out and identify what's been happening with regard to trade (on the U.S. side), how it effects this country's advantages for negotiations, and the ramifications of the legal hurdles presented in recent months. This is something that goes underreported but shouldn't be overlooked.

The Lead:

The second week of May 2026 saw a significant shift toward a multipolar landscape as the US judicial system dismantled the administration's latest attempt at a centralized trade architecture. The US Court of International Trade’s ruling that the 10% global surcharge was illegal has created a vacuum in American trade enforcement, forcing a wave of appeals and a scramble for new legal justifications. Meanwhile, the G7 formalized a united front against industrial overcapacity, and China solidified its South-South trade axis by offering zero-tariff access to nearly the entire African continent. As the World Trade Organization (WTO) prepares to potentially revive its digital trade moratorium, the week concluded with a global trade system that is increasingly defined by regional safe harbors and a fierce competition for the loyalty of emerging markets.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The ocean freight market is experiencing a significant upward shift in pricing as we move into the second half of May. While the first half of the month saw rates hovering in the mid-to-high $2,000 range, a new round of rate increases is pushing the market toward higher thresholds. 

CEA to USWC: Rates are currently running around $2,600 – $2,800, but are projected to increase by $300 – $400, bringing the market rate to the $3,000+ level as of May 15. 

CEA to USEC: Rates are showing even stronger upward pressure. Currently positioned at approximately $4,400, they are expected to climb higher as carriers implement mid-month adjustments. 
Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $2,600 from China to US West Coast and $3,600 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

https://preview.redd.it/4ehv9a8jua1h1.png?width=1061&format=png&auto=webp&s=4a6cb611887877d6e1752729e3a8007c8a65972b

https://preview.redd.it/kdlxtrpjua1h1.png?width=1001&format=png&auto=webp&s=1e54c92bff53c7a6f94029a97d974d6a1c032c67

https://preview.redd.it/fk15sl5kua1h1.png?width=996&format=png&auto=webp&s=064fc31d93055c6c0f03aec5696c99fdb071cb1a

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Post-Holiday Backlog: The rush to move cargo before the May 1st long holidays in China created a temporary surge in demand that is now filtering through the ocean pricing models.
• Carrier Rate Hikes: Ocean carriers are filing for another round of rate increases for the second half of May, aiming to capitalize on stabilized volumes.
• Air Freight Divergence: Unlike ocean freight, air freight rates have dropped post-holiday due to a decrease in urgent demand. This has created a rare scenario where air is cooling while the ocean is heating up.

Looking Ahead:

The immediate outlook suggests a period of low volume but high cost. As rates climb toward the mid-$3,000s for the West Coast and mid-$4,500s for the East Coast, the increased cost of entry is expected to further dampen shipping volumes through the end of May.

However, the optimistic view for June hinges on the aforementioned tax and duty refunds. If importers reinvest their IEEPA refund capital into new inventory, the market could see a contrarian spike in demand despite the higher freight rates. For now, shippers should prepare for a tightening market where margin management becomes more critical than volume chasing.

In the News:

Bloomberg: Trump Appeals Latest Legal Setback to His Tariff Regime Rollout
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/trump-s-latest-10-tariffs-declared-unlawful-by-us-trade-court 

The Washington Post: Court rules against the tariff Trump enacted after Supreme Court defeat
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/05/07/tariffs-trade-court-ruling-trump/ 

Financial Times: ‘Worst’ still ahead as oil price swings darken global trade outlook
https://www.ft.com/content/9ad38fc0-24bd-4378-997c-4dc215a9a7fd?syn-25a6b1a6=1 

Reuters: What are China's current tariffs on US energy and agriculture goods
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/what-are-chinas-current-tariffs-us-energy-agriculture-goods-2026-05-12/ 

WSJ: Trump Delays Move to Lower Tariffs on Beef Imports
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-clears-way-for-more-beef-imports-aiming-to-bring-down-record-high-prices-acf83faa 

Subscribe for weekly updates from Freight Right.

Full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/blank-sailings-and-rollovers-dominate-may-freight-market-tfx-update-wk-may-4-2026

The Lead:

The turn of the month in May 2026 signaled a definitive move toward a centralized trade architecture in the US and a multipolar landscape elsewhere. The provisional launch of the EU-Mercosur agreement represented a major victory for European industrial and agricultural sectors, providing a vital hedge against rising US protectionism. Simultaneously, China’s total elimination of tariffs for 53 African nations solidified a new South-South trade axis designed to secure resources outside of Western influence. While the US formalized its "America First” agenda, using 100% pharma duties and 15% surcharges to force domestic onshoring, the IMF warned that these fragmented trade policies are creating fault lines that threaten to stall global growth for the remainder of the year.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The ocean freight market is currently characterized by relative rate stability compared to the end of April, despite significant operational shifts.

CEA to USWC: rates are still holding at approximately $2,600-$2,800 range per FEU. 

CEA to USEC: Rates to USEC on the other hand, are hovering between $3,700-$3,900. 

These figures include the implementation of Emergency Fuel Surcharges that kicked in at the start of the month. 

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $2,500 from China to US West Coast and $3,550 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

https://preview.redd.it/5onx3v0ahqzg1.png?width=1079&format=png&auto=webp&s=8fe36c4ede72410046f4142c92ed973bc7bb9785

https://preview.redd.it/ur5tj8vahqzg1.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=d90874e99b19506f629a870245d5ded244a328d0

https://preview.redd.it/2jba6dtbhqzg1.png?width=1008&format=png&auto=webp&s=87681a9be4b74dadacb6bee161f767cbc8cc1212

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Rollover Risks: While space is technically available to book, the reduction in vessel capacity means a high percentage of shipments are being rolled to subsequent weeks. 
• Operational Overloading: To compensate for fewer ships, carriers are overloading active vessels, sometimes forcing unplanned discharges at intermediate ports like Busan to lighten the load for the transpacific crossing. 
• Labor Day Holiday: The market experienced a lull in movement this week due to the Labor Day holiday in China, with many businesses closed until May 6th. 
• Blank Sailing Surges: Carriers are aggressively pulling vessels out of circulation, with blank sailings occurring at a higher frequency than in April.

 

Looking Ahead:

The outlook for the remainder of May suggests continued volatility in transit reliability even if rates remain stable. Shippers should expect the overloading trend to persist as carriers manage capacity through tactical blank sailings. This will likely lead to longer lead times and unpredictable routing changes, such as the new trend of transshipment through Busan for traditionally direct China-to-LA routes. Furthermore, if oil prices do not retreat, the market may see another round of rate hikes or increased surcharges across both ocean and air modes before the end of the month.

In the News:

Bloomberg: A New Contest for Global Influence Is Emerging in the Caucasus
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-05-04/china-to-russia-us-and-eu-chase-trade-mineral-stakes-in-caucasus 

New York Times: President Threatens E.U. With Higher Car Tariffs
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/05/01/us/trump-news 

Financial Times: How the Trump-Xi threats of trade war softened into a quieter rivalry
https://www.ft.com/content/27bb8e7b-c4f3-4c83-9952-dd140f6ba794?syn-25a6b1a6=1 

Reuters: Global trade group SEMI sees robust demand for chips despite geopolitical risks
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/southeast-asia-needs-expand-semiconductor-production-global-trade-group-semi-2026-05-05/ 

CNBC: Trump says he’s raising EU auto tariffs to 25%
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/01/trump-eu-auto-tariffs.html 

Subscribe for weekly updates from Freight Right.