Where Are the Tariff Refunds for American Consumers?
newyorker.comu/DryCommunication9639 — 3 days ago
u/DryCommunication9639
A sinking ship? Why the EU and China could be heading for a trade war
scmp.comu/DryCommunication9639 — 2 days ago
US East Coast Freight Targets $4,500 Threshold
The Lead:
The second week of May 2026 saw a significant shift toward a multipolar landscape as the US judicial system dismantled the administration's latest attempt at a centralized trade architecture. The US Court of International Trade’s ruling that the 10% global surcharge was illegal has created a vacuum in American trade enforcement, forcing a wave of appeals and a scramble for new legal justifications. Meanwhile, the G7 formalized a united front against industrial overcapacity, and China solidified its South-South trade axis by offering zero-tariff access to nearly the entire African continent. As the World Trade Organization (WTO) prepares to potentially revive its digital trade moratorium, the week concluded with a global trade system that is increasingly defined by regional safe harbors and a fierce competition for the loyalty of emerging markets.
This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets
China-US Ocean Freight Market:
The ocean freight market is experiencing a significant upward shift in pricing as we move into the second half of May. While the first half of the month saw rates hovering in the mid-to-high $2,000 range, a new round of rate increases is pushing the market toward higher thresholds.
CEA to USWC: Rates are currently running around $2,600 – $2,800, but are projected to increase by $300 – $400, bringing the market rate to the $3,000+ level as of May 15.
CEA to USEC: Rates are showing even stronger upward pressure. Currently positioned at approximately $4,400, they are expected to climb higher as carriers implement mid-month adjustments.
Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $2,600 from China to US West Coast and $3,600 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.
Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.
What Happened This Past Week
- Post-Holiday Backlog: The rush to move cargo before the May 1st long holidays in China created a temporary surge in demand that is now filtering through the ocean pricing models.
- Carrier Rate Hikes: Ocean carriers are filing for another round of rate increases for the second half of May, aiming to capitalize on stabilized volumes.
- Air Freight Divergence: Unlike ocean freight, air freight rates have dropped post-holiday due to a decrease in urgent demand. This has created a rare scenario where air is cooling while the ocean is heating up.
Looking Ahead:
The immediate outlook suggests a period of low volume but high cost. As rates climb toward the mid-$3,000s for the West Coast and mid-$4,500s for the East Coast, the increased cost of entry is expected to further dampen shipping volumes through the end of May.
However, the optimistic view for June hinges on the aforementioned tax and duty refunds. If importers reinvest their IEEPA refund capital into new inventory, the market could see a contrarian spike in demand despite the higher freight rates. For now, shippers should prepare for a tightening market where margin management becomes more critical than volume chasing.
In the News:
Bloomberg: Trump Appeals Latest Legal Setback to His Tariff Regime Rollout
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-07/trump-s-latest-10-tariffs-declared-unlawful-by-us-trade-court
The Washington Post: Court rules against the tariff Trump enacted after Supreme Court defeat
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/05/07/tariffs-trade-court-ruling-trump/
Financial Times: ‘Worst’ still ahead as oil price swings darken global trade outlook
https://www.ft.com/content/9ad38fc0-24bd-4378-997c-4dc215a9a7fd?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Reuters: What are China's current tariffs on US energy and agriculture goods
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/what-are-chinas-current-tariffs-us-energy-agriculture-goods-2026-05-12/
WSJ: Trump Delays Move to Lower Tariffs on Beef Imports
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-clears-way-for-more-beef-imports-aiming-to-bring-down-record-high-prices-acf83faa
u/DryCommunication9639 — 7 days ago
Trump administration asks US court to pause ruling against tariffs
reuters.comu/DryCommunication9639 — 10 days ago
Trump's Tariffs Trashed the Economy. Why Won't We Say That? (w/ Matt Bennett)
thebulwark.comu/BulwarkOnline — 9 days ago
u/DryCommunication9639 — 15 days ago
Full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/blank-sailings-and-rollovers-dominate-may-freight-market-tfx-update-wk-may-4-2026
The Lead:
The turn of the month in May 2026 signaled a definitive move toward a centralized trade architecture in the US and a multipolar landscape elsewhere. The provisional launch of the EU-Mercosur agreement represented a major victory for European industrial and agricultural sectors, providing a vital hedge against rising US protectionism. Simultaneously, China’s total elimination of tariffs for 53 African nations solidified a new South-South trade axis designed to secure resources outside of Western influence. While the US formalized its "America First” agenda, using 100% pharma duties and 15% surcharges to force domestic onshoring, the IMF warned that these fragmented trade policies are creating fault lines that threaten to stall global growth for the remainder of the year.
This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets
China-US Ocean Freight Market:
The ocean freight market is currently characterized by relative rate stability compared to the end of April, despite significant operational shifts.
CEA to USWC: rates are still holding at approximately $2,600-$2,800 range per FEU.
CEA to USEC: Rates to USEC on the other hand, are hovering between $3,700-$3,900.
These figures include the implementation of Emergency Fuel Surcharges that kicked in at the start of the month.
Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $2,500 from China to US West Coast and $3,550 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.
Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.
What Happened This Past Week
- Rollover Risks: While space is technically available to book, the reduction in vessel capacity means a high percentage of shipments are being rolled to subsequent weeks.
- Operational Overloading: To compensate for fewer ships, carriers are overloading active vessels, sometimes forcing unplanned discharges at intermediate ports like Busan to lighten the load for the transpacific crossing.
- Labor Day Holiday: The market experienced a lull in movement this week due to the Labor Day holiday in China, with many businesses closed until May 6th.
- Blank Sailing Surges: Carriers are aggressively pulling vessels out of circulation, with blank sailings occurring at a higher frequency than in April.
Looking Ahead:
The outlook for the remainder of May suggests continued volatility in transit reliability even if rates remain stable. Shippers should expect the overloading trend to persist as carriers manage capacity through tactical blank sailings. This will likely lead to longer lead times and unpredictable routing changes, such as the new trend of transshipment through Busan for traditionally direct China-to-LA routes. Furthermore, if oil prices do not retreat, the market may see another round of rate hikes or increased surcharges across both ocean and air modes before the end of the month.
In the News:
Bloomberg: A New Contest for Global Influence Is Emerging in the Caucasus
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-05-04/china-to-russia-us-and-eu-chase-trade-mineral-stakes-in-caucasus
New York Times: President Threatens E.U. With Higher Car Tariffs
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/05/01/us/trump-news
Financial Times: How the Trump-Xi threats of trade war softened into a quieter rivalry
https://www.ft.com/content/27bb8e7b-c4f3-4c83-9952-dd140f6ba794?syn-25a6b1a6=1
Reuters: Global trade group SEMI sees robust demand for chips despite geopolitical risks
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/southeast-asia-needs-expand-semiconductor-production-global-trade-group-semi-2026-05-05/
CNBC: Trump says he’s raising EU auto tariffs to 25%
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/01/trump-eu-auto-tariffs.html
u/DryCommunication9639 — 15 days ago
“This will be indeed the golden age of America,” President Donald Trump proclaimed on April 2, 2025, better known as Liberation Day. On that day, the president lauded tariffs as a way to “make America wealthy again.”
Americans invested in the market lost about 10% of their wealth as the market reeled with one of the worst short-term crashes in recent memory, with the Dow shedding nearly 4,600 points as it tumbled 11% over four days. The tariff regime was rolled back, then reinstated bit by bit, then ruled illegal, but tariffs fueled inflation all the while.
That was just the appetizer, according to Mark Zandi. “The higher energy and other commodity prices caused by the war threaten to do even more economic damage than the tariffs, further undermining growth and pushing inflation higher,” the Moody’s Analytics chief economist said in a post on X.
Americans are facing a barrage of economic headwinds. Many employers have paused hiring, adopting a wait-and-see approach thanks to Trump’s tariffs. A growing number of tech firms have cut workers in the wake of AI adoption. Inflation also remains hard to tame, down from a high of 9.1% in July 2022, though stubbornly above pre-pandemic levels.
But while many economists predicted at the beginning of 2026, the tariff-related headwinds would begin to relent, the Iran war threw a wrench in those plans. Inflation is now trending upward as a result of the energy shock stemming from the war. And Zandi predicts job growth will stagnate, developing a noxious combination of higher inflation and slow growth.
Read more: https://fortune.com/2026/05/05/iran-war-oil-prices-mark-zandi-donald-trump-tariffs/
u/DryCommunication9639 — 15 days ago
u/DryCommunication9639 — 24 days ago
USPS 8% rate increase: who's raising shipping prices? And who is sucking it up?
u/DryCommunication9639 — 22 days ago
Source: https://www.cbp.gov/trade/programs-administration/trade-remedies/ieepa-duty-refunds
Keep seeing the same questions pop up after people submit in the refund portal. Here's a plain-English breakdown of each status.
ENTRY SUMMARY UPDATED
Good news. Your entries passed, CBP is removing the IEEPA duties, refund comes in 60-90 days. Nothing else to do on your end.
UNABLE TO CALCULATE DUTY
Sounds worse than it is. Usually means your entry is on a liquidation extension or hold. CBP took it but can't finalize the math until the hold clears. Your refund is still coming, it just shows up later when the entry liquidates normally instead of on the 60-90 day timeline. Not a rejection.
If your entry isn't on extension and you're still seeing this, email IEEPARefunds@cbp.dhs.gov with the entry number.
ENTRY SUMMARY IS IN FINAL LIQUIDATION STATUS
CBP finalized this entry more than 80 days before you submitted. The portal only covers entries finalized within the past 80 days. If yours was finalized between 81 and 180 days ago, you still have a separate option called a Form 19 protest. Older than 180 days, there's no path left through CBP.
STATEMENT PROCESSING NOT COMPLETE
The batched duty payment cycle for this entry hasn't closed in CBP's system yet. Shows up a lot on recent shipments from March or April 2026. Wait 2-3 days and resubmit just that entry in a new file.
NO IEEPA HTS ON ENTRY
CBP doesn't see an IEEPA tariff code on this entry. Either the entry genuinely had no IEEPA tariffs, or your broker filed them in a non-standard way. Worth a quick call to whoever handled your original shipment.
Side note: Section 301 China tariffs are a completely different program and are NOT refunded through this portal. If your entries are showing 9903.88 codes, those don't qualify. That's correct, not a bug.
ACCOUNT MISMATCH
The importer ID number on the original entry doesn't match what's registered in your ACE account. Common when DHL, UPS, or FedEx filed the entry under their own importer number instead of yours. Pull the Form 7501 from your broker and look at who's listed as Importer of Record. If it's a carrier name, they're the ones who get the refund, not you.
SERVER ERRORS / portal keeps timing out
Not your file. CBP's system is getting hammered. Try before 9am Eastern, hold times and load both drop significantly. A few people have had better luck using login.cbp.gov directly instead of going through the main ACE login page.
One thing worth knowing before you hit submit: once an entry goes into the portal, you can't file corrections on it until CBP finalizes it. If anything needs fixing, do it first.
More detail on each status including the ones CBP hasn't documented yet: es-003.com/cape-errors-guide
Full CBP guidance: cbp.gov/trade/programs-administration/trade-remedies/ieepa-duty-refunds
u/Constant_Juice_5852 — 29 days ago
u/DryCommunication9639 — 1 month ago
The Lead:
Last week was defined by a massive administrative rebalancing in the United States and a deepening war in global economic policy. The launch of the CAPE refund system represents a historic victory for US importers against executive overreach, yet this liquidity injection was immediately offset by the threat of a new 50% tariff on China over its alleged ties to Iran. This geopolitical tension was reflected in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, which characterized the global economy as living in the shadow of war, with trade fragmentation and rising defense spending threatening to erase recent productivity gains. While the US focuses on reciprocity through its Section 122 surcharge, the EU and China are aggressively building alternative corridors, the former through tech deals with South Korea and the latter through tariff-free access for Africa, effectively creating a world of competing trade fortresses.
This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets
China-US Ocean Freight Market:
CEA to USWC: general market rates are holding at approximately $2,600 – $2,700 per FEU. However, special discounted rates are available for high-volume shippers, ranging between $2,100 and $2,200. Rates have remained largely stagnant compared to the previous week, though they represent a significant increase of $300 – $400 since the beginning of the month.
CEA to USEC: Rates are not explicitly quoted in dollar amounts, the lane is facing more severe operational challenges than the West Coast. Carriers are struggling to maintain the current $2,700 sticker price during this off-peak period, suggesting potential downward pressure on rates in the coming weeks despite aggressive capacity management.
Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $2,070 from China to US West Coast and $3,150 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.
Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.
What Happened This Past Week
- Increased Booking Rolls: There is a notable rise in "rolled" bookings, where cargo is pushed to later vessels due to the reduced number of active sailings.
- Volatile Sailing Schedules: Schedules have become highly unreliable; in one instance, a scheduled sailing for the final week of April disappeared from carrier websites entirely, with the next available slot pushed to early May.
- Shipper "Wait-and-See" Tactics: Many importers are withholding regular shipments, betting that current rate levels are unsustainable and will drop by May.
- Downsized Urgent Cargo: For necessary shipments, customers are opting for smaller, more frequent batches to mitigate the high costs of both ocean and air freight.
Looking Ahead:
The outlook for the first half of May suggests a period of continued friction between carrier capacity management and low market demand. Carriers are expected to continue their strategy of limited capacity to defend the current rate floor, but this will likely be challenged by the ongoing off-peak slump.
As sailings are pushed into the first week of May, shippers should prepare for rate adjustments at the start of the new month. If volume does not pick up significantly, the gap between special discounted rates and official sticker prices may widen, eventually forcing a correction in general market rates. Shippers currently withholding cargo are likely to re-enter the market in early May, which could provide the volume necessary to stabilize these higher levels or, conversely, lead to further booking congestion if blank sailings persist.
In the News:
Bloomberg: Global Trade Policy Reacts Swiftly to Iran War Disruptions
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-04-16/trade-policies-introduced-to-counter-iran-war-fallout
New York Times: Trump Administration Takes Steps to Refund $166 Billion in Tariffs
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/us/politics/trump-administration-tariff-refunds.html
Financial Times: Are global trade imbalances just ‘one really big surplus’?
https://www.ft.com/content/30e59f44-647e-496d-a4fa-ac3595dcb6f2
Newsweek: Iran Issues New Threat to Further Destabilize Global Trade via Red Sea
https://www.newsweek.com/iran-new-threat-destabilize-global-trade-red-sea-11833027
CNN: The tariff refund process is finally kicking off
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/20/economy/tariff-refund-process-kicks-off
u/DryCommunication9639 — 1 month ago
▲ 2 r/FreightRight
Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/space-tightens-on-china-us-routes-despite-weak-underlying-volume-tfx-update-wk-april-13-2026
The Lead:
During this week, the global trade landscape transitioned into a period of aggressive industrial restructuring. US formalized its 2026 agenda, signaling that it will use 100% pharmaceutical tariffs and 50% metal duties as leverage to force domestic onshoring and global "reciprocity." This move has effectively ended the era of global pharmaceutical exemptions and forced the European Union into an emergency expansion mode. By fast-tracking deals with Mercosur and Australia, the EU is attempting to build a resilient middle trade bloc that can survive the inflationary pressures of high energy costs and the U.S. surcharge. However, with the WTO's growth forecast falling to 1.9% and the U.S. trade deficit failing to narrow despite these measures, the week concluded with rising concerns that the world is entering a period of permanent "smarter trade" at a significantly higher cost to the consumer.
This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets
China-US Ocean Freight Market:
The ocean freight market has seen a period of rate stabilization following adjustments earlier in the month. As of mid-April 2026, current rates are being extended through the end of the month. Current market rates from China/East Asia (CEA) are as follows:
CEA to USWC: Rates are currently holding between $2,600 and $2,700 per container.
CEA to USEC: Rates are trending higher, ranging from $3,600 to $3,700 per container.
While these represent the standard Freight All Kinds (FAK) rates, special or blended rates have emerged from specific origins, particularly Southern China and Southeast Asia. These blended rates, often originating from fixed agent contracts, can bring costs down to approximately $2,100 - $2,200 for the West Coast, depending on the carrier and volume ratios.
Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.
What Happened This Past Week
- Carrier-Driven Scarcity: Carriers are aggressively utilizing blank sailings to artificially tighten space and prevent rates from sliding. This has resulted in some bookings from the beginning of the month being rolled to later vessels.
- Blended Rate Ratios: To maintain volumes in a market with weak organic demand, agents are mixing low-cost fixed contract rates with FAK rates. For example, a carrier may require one container at full FAK price for every four containers shipped at a discounted contract rate.
- Air Freight Spillover: Due to the volatility and "messed up" state of ocean transit, importers requiring speed are pivoting to air freight, driving those rates up to $7.00 - $8.00+ per kilo.
Looking Ahead:
The market appears to be entering a phase of forced stability through the end of April. While demand remains soft, the "aggressive" blank sailing strategy employed by carriers suggests they are committed to defending current price floors rather than allowing a slide back to previous lows.
Expect the blended rate phenomenon to be a temporary fixture. As risk profiles increase and margins tighten, forwarders will likely have to move back toward market averages to sustain operations. For shippers, the immediate outlook suggests less price volatility but continued equipment and space challenges as carriers continue to pull ships out of circulation to manage capacity.
In the News:
Bloomberg: Global Trade Customers Ask Container Lines to Keep Digital Transition Moving
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-04-14/global-goods-trade-and-digitization?srnd=homepage-europe
New York Post: US Court of International Trade considers challenge to Trump’s 10% global tariffs
https://nypost.com/2026/04/10/us-news/us-court-of-international-trade-considers-challenge-to-trumps-10-global-tariffs/
CNBC: Trump threatens 50% tariffs on China as report suggests plans for arms shipment to Iran
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/13/trump-threatens-50percent-tariffs-on-china-as-report-suggests-plans-for-arms-shipment-to-iran.html
WSJ: US trade court challenges Trump's basis for 10% global tariffs
https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-trade-court-weighs-legality-trump-10-global-tariff-2026-04-10/
Reuters: Italy's surprise rise in exports to US masks deep fragility to tariffs
https://www.reuters.com/business/italys-surprise-rise-exports-us-masks-deep-fragility-tariffs-2026-04-14/
u/DryCommunication9639 — 1 month ago
When the Trump administration began its tariff campaign in 2025, some of the loudest critics focused on the consequences for Midwestern farmers or for border states. A year in, the impact of tariffs has become clearer, and some research suggests no state has emerged completely unscathed.
Early last year, the Trump administration established one of the most sweeping tariff regimes in the country’s history, including a 10% duty across the board and country and commodity-specific penalties, in some cases as high as 50%. These tariffs were widely expected to have a biting effect on the economy. But while some observers assumed the immediate pain would be confined to agricultural producers or states heavily reliant on international supply chains, the shock proved far more widespread.
Trump’s tariffs effectively revealed 50 different trade vulnerabilities across the country, each dictated by a state’s own production and consumption patterns, according to a paper published last week by researchers at Ohio State University and Cornell University. By the end of 2025, even states that had never depended on buying goods from abroad were feeling tariff tremors in their own way.
Read more: https://fortune.com/2026/04/14/how-tariffs-dealt-economic-blow-in-all-50-states/
u/DryCommunication9639 — 1 month ago
▲ 1 r/FreightRight
Read full article here: https://www.freightright.com/news/carriers-pivot-to-weekly-rate-updates-amid-global-fuel-volatility-tfx-update-wk-april-6-2026
The Lead:
The beginning of April 2026 saw the US extend its national security tariff umbrella to the healthcare sector, imposing a massive 100% duty on foreign pharmaceuticals to decouple medical supply chains. This aggressive unilateralism stands in stark opposition to the EU's recent diplomatic successes, such as the inevitable ratification of the Mercosur deal, which seeks to secure critical minerals through cooperation rather than coercion. Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization's latest figures highlight a shifting global guard, with the UAE's rise to a top-10 exporter occurring just as the organization slashes global growth forecasts to 1.9% amidst a surging energy crisis. Collectively, these events suggest that while the US is doubling down on protectionist fortress economics, other major powers are aggressively forming new, non-US aligned trade corridors to mitigate the inflationary impact of $110 oil and high Western tariffs.
This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets
China-US Ocean Freight Market:
Ocean freight rates from China to the U.S. remain highly volatile week-over-week, with this week’s increases driven primarily by fuel surcharges rather than base rate adjustments.
CEA to USWC: Rates are holding relatively steady at the base level, but all-in pricing has increased to approximately $2,700 per FEU, up from roughly $2,400–$2,500 last week due to a newly introduced ~$300 fuel surcharge per container.
CEA to USEC: Similarly, USEC pricing is experiencing incremental increases driven by fuel costs, with all-in rates trending upward in line with USWC dynamics.
Notably, carriers have shifted from bi-weekly rate releases to weekly updates, reflecting a highly volatile environment. While base ocean freight rates have remained relatively constant, the overall cost to shippers has increased due to the implementation of significant surcharges.
Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.
What Happened This Past Week
- Carrier Profitability Strategies: Airlines and ocean carriers are aggressively managing space to maximize profits. This includes the continued use of blank sailings to ensure services remain sustainable and profitable.
- Stagnant Volume: Despite the increase in costs, actual freight volume remains slow with no significant spikes in demand observed.
- Air Freight Spillover: Air freight rates remain high at $8–$9 per kilo, with severe space constraints as airlines hold back capacity for the highest bidders, adding pressure to overall logistics budgets.
Looking Ahead:
The outlook for the remainder of April remains unstable. The industry is moving away from predictable bi-weekly rate extensions; it is anticipated that the second half of the month will continue to be broken into smaller, weekly pricing portions.
As long as fuel price volatility persists, shippers should not expect a simplification of the rate structure. The market is currently in a "wait and see" posture, with no signs of the current upward pressure slowing down for at least the next week. Importers should prepare for continued "headwinds" where pricing remains high despite sluggish volume.
In the News:
Financial Times: The future of global trade won’t depend on the Strait of Hormuz
https://www.ft.com/content/2c895663-16d5-4b7a-8c9b-45204c362c84
The Washington Post: The backward logic of pharmaceutical tariffs
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/wto-suffers-fresh-blow-reform-push-hits-wall-cameroon-meeting-2026-03-30/
BBC: A year on: Four ways Trump's tariffs have changed the global economy
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c79j1rd92ypo
WSJ: How Trump Rewrote the Rules of Global Trade in One Year
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/how-trump-rewrote-the-rules-of-global-trade-in-one-year-e37332fd
Reuters: Bourbon demand is down and tariffs aren't helping. But distillers keep building.
https://www.reuters.com/business/bourbon-demand-is-down-tariffs-arent-helping-distillers-keep-building-2026-04-07/
u/DryCommunication9639 — 1 month ago