Codelco revised down its copper production guidance for 2026 to 1.29m metric tonnes of copper.
To put that into context:
2025 = 1.33mt
2024 = 1.33mt
2023 = 1.32mt
2022 = 1.45mt
2021 = 1.61mt
2020 = 1.61mt
2019 = 1.58mt
2018 = 1.67mt
Credit RBC capital markets for the great chart
Copper ETFs are becoming one of the easiest ways to gain exposure to the long-term copper thesis.
Here are 5 of the top-performing copper ETFs year to date.
"Copper is now trading at about $6/lb. There's no doubt that the world is going to need more copper going forward... Commodity prices have to go HIGHER because demand is growing without any real increase in supply."
That’s +75% since October 2023 and over +40% in the last 12 months.
Supply remains tight.
China inventories are falling.
Data center construction is exploding.
Meanwhile, disruptions at Indonesia’s massive Grasberg mine are tightening the market even more.
China’s exports also jumped +14% YoY in April, driven by clean-tech manufacturing one of the most copper-intensive industries on earth.
The world needs more copper.
The supply isn’t keeping up.
Demand keeps rising, major mines are ageing, and new supply isn’t arriving fast enough.
UBS is now calling for $15,000/tonne copper ($7.50/lb) by Q1 2027 as the supply deficit continues to widen.
2 dead, 5 injured, with part of the facility collapsing.
The critical minerals supply chain isn’t just concentrated it’s fragile.
BHP: 490,500 tonnes (-4% YoY)
Codelco: 397,076 (-3.2% YoY)
Freeport-McMoRan: 290,299 (-38.5% YoY)
The biggest producers are mostly flat to declining year over year.
At the same time, demand isn’t slowing.
Energy transition, EVs, grid expansion, and AI data centers are all pulling from the same copper pool.
And supply can’t respond quickly.
New mines take 10–16 years to go from discovery to production.
Even existing operations are struggling to maintain output.
Yes, some producers are growing:
Glencore +8.8%
Teck +9.8%
CMOC +13.6%
But that’s mostly share shifting not meaningful growth in total supply.
The gap is building.
Copper might be the most under-discussed commodity yet it’s one the entire modern economy depends on.
Copper is a relatively small input cost roughly a $300B market globally which means prices can move much higher without significantly impacting end demand.
Nickel: -28%
Copper: -12%
Palladium: -14%
Platinum: -26%
Just another reminder that supply isn’t exactly growing.
Copper wire theft has been knocking out streetlights across Los Angeles, leaving neighborhoods in the dark.
Entrepreneur Mark James of End Metal Theft proposed a $300 locking cover system, but city officials chose to focus on solar streetlights costing up to $6,000 each.
Critics say the move increases costs while theft continues to damage infrastructure and drain millions in repairs.