The Gas Tax is a distraction
Now, I'm not against taxing gas but I just think we've missed the time, this would have been a great issue to have brought up in the 2000's - 2010's, but now we should be focusing on shutting down this dying industry for the good of the planet and focusing on new issues.
First of all 95% of gas sales are held in long term contracts with most starting to expire from 2030 onwards. Changing these contracts would activate"change-in-law" clauses which would mean huge renegotiating and lawsuits, as well these kind of changes are detrimental to the trust in your economy. Also the Australian government's own Treasury modelling shows the value of gas exports will fall 50% by 2030. Exports to China, our largest market, have been falling 28% year on year. Which based on the snail pace of major policies like would likely be when this gets implemented.
Secondly the gas tax argument sources almost all of its information from The Australia Institute. In 2025 it was reported that the Minderoo Foundation, a charity established by mining magnate Andrew Forrest, made an undisclosed donation to the Australia Institute described by multiple sources as "substantial" (that could be anything from a guy with a $31.6B net worth). Shortly after, the Institute began heavily promoting the 25% gas export tax. It usually pays to check where your information comes from, especially when someone is offering a solution so simple to a problem so complex.
Andrew Forrest represents one of the largest figures in the iron ore industry. Iron ore has a very small real royalty rate of around 5% of its export value (slightly more than what gas pays). However the iron ore industry is around 25% of our exports, twice the size of gas, and is not going anywhere .
Adding just a 15% export tax would raise $17.4 billion per year more than what The Gas Tax would raise in an industry that will be growing for another 50 years. As well if WA were to bring the royalties up to the levels we have for coal that would raise another $3.5B a year.
This is the same industry that spent $100 million on a advertising to oust Kevin Rudd after he proposed the Super Mining Profits Tax — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-ucuQcOXz4
#TaxIron
https://ieefa.org/australian-gas-and-lng-tracker
https://michaelwest.com.au/australias-existing-lng-contracts-might-be-the-last/
https://ieefa.org/australian-gas-and-lng-tracker-june2025
https://www.inkl.com/news/mining-magnate-andrew-forrest-s-minderoo-charity-makes-undisclosed-donation-to-the-australia-institute
https://michaelwest.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/A-Fair-Share_-Royalties-Report.pdf
https://thestringer.com.au/miners-were-not-responsible-for-rudds-downfall-3576