u/EmotionalBaby9423

Image too wild to not share... Thank you to all first responders!

Alright let's try this again. Disclaimer: A Water Year is defined from October 1st to September 30th and standard use in hydrology and meteorology in the American West because of the distinct wet and dry seasons we experience.

Since we have an El Nino winter coming up and the internet is already full of hot takes and half-information, I figured I would share some statistically relevant data. The graphic you are looking at shows the Pearson correlation between the variable in the row and the variable in the column.

For example: 60% of the variation in average temperature in the period of record can be explained by increase in Water Year (simplified: more time in the dataset = higher temp). I would like to direct your attention to ENSO Mode vs WY Precipitation, that is "how much of the variation in water year precipitation can be explained by ENSO?". The answer is: None.

Do with that information what you will, this is just pointing out that deciding to book ski passes for Tahoe based on this being a strong El Nino has no scientific basis. Probably preaching to the choir here anyways. Hit me with questions!

Data is taken from the Global Historical Climate Network daily (GHCNd) dataset and looks at period of record (1903-2026). Caveat: I only have ENSO data available from 1947 onwards, so ENSO Mode correlations are calculated only for 1947 through 2026.

Edit: Since some dude tagged his vibecoded mess in the comments, I want to emphasize that this model was not built using any LLMs.

A day late, thanks for pointing out all the errors/concerns in the previous iterations. I updated the script to hopefully have resolved all issues... Let me know if not though!

If the weighted favorite won each of their knockout games, this is what the rest of the world cup would look like. Working now to introduce a randomizer or let your preferred team advance if you want to know how that changes the remainder of the sim.

It is not coming home...?!

Do not ask me why the tournament tree is upside down, it decided to have the games in descending order for one reason or another. In bold are the teams that are modeled to advance in 100k runs simulations (though of course after the rd of 32 those will be less for the fixtures presented here).

Argentina makes it to the final 35.3% (!!!) of simulations. France + Germany combined make it about 36.7%; so a final of Argentina vs France/Germany does not seem terribly unlikely now.

Update to last week's post accessible here.

Matchday 2 finished, so I updated the simulation. Funny situation in Group B where Bosnia is favored to win against Qatar but has lower chances to make it to the Knockout Stages because 3 points and the expected goal difference would not be enough while 4 points would be.

Most frequent final now is France vs Argentina in 7.3% of simulations; followed by Spain vs Argentina and Germany vs Argentina. Argentina has won the pot in a whooping 18.1% of simulations, France follows at 16.1%. Interestingly, Brazil is now simulated to win in 9.5% of all cases, which puts them at distant third. Bonus Graphic #13 shows the progression through the tournament for the five teams that are now most favored to win.

The most favored matchup in the round of 16? France v Germany in 68(!!)% of all simulations. The winner of that match has pretty decent chances to make it to the final.

Current mean performance for the worst third place to advance to knockout is 3 points and a -4 GD.

Title says it all - today was the fourth earliest 90°F+ day on record and the earliest 92°F by some five days. The GHCN record for us stops at 1937 so I can't actually capture the 92°F on May 15th, 1924 (which is the closest 92°F+ occurrence to today).

The y-axis shows the month fraction. 5.0 = May 1st; 5.5 = May 15th and so on. On the x-axis we just have each year.

Let me know if you have any questions!

Edit: The +/- x days denotes one standard deviation in the data. Realistically three standard deviations occur regularly so we could probably go +- 6 weeks but then the text is irrelevant anyways. Also, no world in which we would get a first 92°F day on July 30th or later in the 21st century. Do with that what you will, just take that bit of text with a grain of salt!

Edit 2: This graphic is created by me, myself, and I; there is no guarantee for accuracy (though I would like to think it is!) and this is not affiliated to anyone else. The data comes from GHCN-daily https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datasets/GHCND/stations/GHCND:USW00023185/detail and is visualized via Python.