u/Equivalent-Cable9992

My backtest looks good on recent data, but performs poorly in the past. Is this normal?

My backtest looks good on recent data, but performs poorly in the past. Is this normal?

I’m testing a strategy across a basket of futures/assets. One of the assets shows a strong equity curve in recent years, but the older part of the backtest is almost flat or weak.

Is this usually a sign of overfitting, market regime change, bad data/rollover issues, or could this be normal for certain short-term strategies?

I’m trying to understand whether this means my code is wrong, or whether the edge only appeared in more recent market conditions.

u/Equivalent-Cable9992 — 22 hours ago