u/FBG05

My guesses:

2005: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Aviator) or Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)

2006: I want to say it would be Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain) since he was in a strong BP runner-up, but his age and the material have me skeptical. If he doesn't win in PSH's place, then I'm guessing Joaquin Phoenix (Walk the Line) would.

2007: Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond)

2008: George Clooney (Michael Clayton)

2011: I want to say Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network) probably takes it, but similar to Heath Ledger, his age has me skeptical. If he doesn't win in Colin Firth's place, then I'm guessing Jeff Bridges (True Grit) would.

2013: Ideally Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) would win, but the Academy didn't seem to like that movie too much despite giving it three acting nominations. I think Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) might end up taking it, considering how well SLP performed in the ATL categories.

2016: Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs) or Matt Damon (The Martian)

2018: Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out). Although if DDL (Phantom Thread) doesn’t get nominated for either There Will Be Blood or Lincoln, he probably wins this one (but I’m not really viewing this post as a single hypothetical)

2020: Adam Driver (Marriage Story)

2022: Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) or Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick...Boom!)

My guesses:

2001: Ideally Ellen Burstyn (Requiem for a Dream) would've won, but I think Juliette Binoche (Chocolat) probably takes it, given that she made all 4 precursors and had Weinstein power behind her.

2006: Felicity Huffman (Transamerica)

2011: Annette Bening (The Kids Are Alright)

2014: Sandra Bullock (Gravity)

2015: I want to say Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl) could've won but I have a feeling that Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything) would've won instead due to being in a stronger awards contender.

2016: Cate Blanchett (Carol)

2018: Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)

2020: Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)

2026: While Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I'd Kick You) was probably the runner-up this year, I have a hard time seeing both actress categories going to lone nominees, so my guess is that Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) wins with a Buckley-less field.

Edit: Forgot to include Helen Mirren (The Queen) as a sweeper in 2007. I think Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada) or Kate Winslet (Little Children) would've won if she wasn't nominated.

My guesses:

2004: Marcia Gay Harden (Mystic River)

2007: Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal)

2010: Vera Farmiga (Up in the Air)

2012: Jessica Chastain (The Help)

2013: Sally Field (Lincoln)

2015: Emma Stone (Birdman)

2017: Naomie Harris (Moonlight) or Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

2018: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

2020: Florence Pugh (Little Women) or Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)

2022: Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)

2024: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)

2025: Ariana Grande (Wicked)

I plan on doing this with each acting category but decided to start with this one since it's particularly prone to sweepers.

My guesses:

2008: Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)

2009: Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt)

2010: Matt Damon (Invictus) or Woody Harrelson (The Messenger)

2012: Jonah Hill (Moneyball)

2015: Edward Norton (Birdman)

2018: Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), although if this movie just ceases to exist altogether then maybe Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

2019: Sam Elliott (A Star is Born) or Adam Driver (BlacKKKlansman)

2020: Joe Pesci (The Irishman)

2021: Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah) or Paul Raci (The Sound of Metal)

2024: Ryan Gosling (Barbie)

2025: Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)