u/FI_321

I’m early retired and playing with the trial version of Boldin. It’s giving me $156K per year as my upper guardrail. That seems a bit overly optimistic. I use the spreadsheet from ‘early retirement now’ that uses historical data including market conditions (S&P level and CAPE). With the S&P at an all time high and a CAPE >20, my chance of success using $156K per year is less than 50%. The spreadsheet doesn’t show worse than 50%, but based on the numbers, $156K is probably in the low 40% chance of success range.

I wish that $156K number was realistic, but historically at least, it’s super risky.