Price Drops
Apparently an influential analyst released a report today that’s at least partly responsible for what’s going on. The only write ups I can find are paywalled, but according to an llm summary, the gist of the argument is that Chinese dram and nand will begin flooding the market much sooner than anyone expected, putting severe downward pressure on wholesale prices. However, this pertains only to highly commodotized.forms of memory that are used in consumer electronics, not current gen hbm and other data center/enterprise level products. According to the llm, the gist of the thesis is that micron and Hynix are fairly well insulated, but Samsung’s margins are at serious risk.
If anyone has more detailed or accurate info, please post it here.
EDIT: Respectfully, people may be missing the point of the above. The report, assuming it’s accurate, is bearish for Samsung. However, it s generally quite positive for Micron and Hynix, since they have largely withdrawn from the more heavily commoditized segments of the dram and nand markets. Nothing casts doubt on AI bottleneck. This being the case, if you feel like the report warrants portfolio adjustment, the logical move (for those in the US) is to take some funds out of DRAM and EWY, and put them directly into MU. (Sadly, Hynix isn’t available yet.). All three are right around 14.5%-15.0% off their highs, so you don’t have to take a haircut in relative terms, although you will get hit with some short term capital gains, unfortunately.