Watson got a $110M contract this offseason. The money says the Packers see him as their WR1. He has shown some flashes throughout his first 4 years, but he has already had plenty of injury issues. The asymmetrical hammy issue was really weird. Love is a competent QB, but will Watson be reliable? His career highs are only 41 receptions and 620 yards. Big risk, but is the upside just as big?
I find myself putting Jamo into the “Boom/Bust” category. He had a good stretch of games from week 6-15, but he had a bye, 2 games with literal 0, and half of those games LaPorta didn’t play. I don’t like having him as my WR2 or even my WR3/FLEX. He can win you games and also lose you games. I like drafting upside, but he feels like someone who will annoy me more times than not.
3 straight years of 1300+ scrimmage yards, 13+ total TDs, and 30+ receptions. Corum had a little bit of a useful run near the end of the season, but is that indicative of more usage this year? Does Kyren need to have 300 touches to hold his value? He has been a redzone monster and obviously the Rams are very good. Is he a good pick at current ADP?
The king is a certified stallion. He’s built different than every other RB. I don’t see him falling off. He has definitely had bad games, but he is a TD machine and always finds ways to get it done. The Ravens were mid last year and I expect them to return to form a bit this season. There might be an occasional bad game where he goes 12 for 50, but I don’t see that happening often. Will he have too many duds to be a confident RB1?
McDaniel just came out and said he will use the hot hand approach this season with Omar, Keaton, and Vidal. Omar is definitely the best back of the 3, but does this statement signify that Omar might not be used as much in the passing game? This would limit his PPR upside and possibly make his floor lower than we want as a potential RB1. He can do it all, but will he get the volume we expect other RBs drafted around him to get? I’ve been on the Omar hype train and now I’m questioning what his ceiling outcome is.
Chan has been spectacular the past couple years, but I can’t seem to get myself excited to take him this year. He is small, on a bad team, and even though that hasn’t stopped him from performing at a high level, I feel like there will be a drop off coming soon. Willis, being a running QB, might limit his receiving upside. The Dolphins passing game looks to be abysmal, which I see as a problem with stacked boxes against Chan in the running game. Does he still get close to 100 manufactured targets? Will his running efficiency stay high? I just see too many ways it can go wrong here. How can it go right for him to finish as a top 10 RB?
When I watch Nabers play, he looks like the best receiver in the league. He reminds me of Jamarr Chase. His offseason was dominated by speculation of how much missed time he would have because of the injury. At first, he was expected to miss like half the season. Now that he has been seen running on the field, he is jumping back up in ADP. I think his upside is WR1 (at least in PPG), but how many games does he miss to start the season? Does an IR stint prevent him from being drafted as a top 20 WR? At what point in the draft does the risk-reward value become a good spot to take him?
Jettas was extremely disappointing last year. JJM seems like he doesn’t have it, but O’Connell is supposed to be a QB whisperer. They brought in Kyler to take the reins so maybe he helps improve their offense. Jettas feels risky as the WR6ish at the 1/2 turn. I’m sure he’ll be better than last year, but taking him doesn’t inspire the confidence it used to. Where should he be going, and what is his range of outcomes?
12T, HPPR, Non-TEP
The Eagles had a lot of problems last year. Bad OC, OL injuries, and overall just a down year. I think he can have a big bounce back in Sean Mannion’s offense with more under-center QB formations. Good zone running scheme and play action to keep the defense honest. I have him ranked at RB6 behind JT and Cook, at the top of that big group of RBs 6-12. Is this too optimistic?
Disclaimer: I am an Eagles fan, so there is admittedly some homer bias probably creeping in the thought process.