Betting on the Story
SpaceX is looking at a $1.75 trillion IPO valuation, and the numbers are absolute wild. We are talking about 94x trailing revenue here, which makes Nvidia look cheap.
The revenue mix shifted heavily toward Starlink, pulling in over $11 billion and basically keeping the lights on since the launch business is capital heavy and the newly merged xAI segment is burning massive cash. The 2025 net loss sits at $4.9 billion, and they are carrying nearly $30 billion in debt, with a massive short-term bridge loan due right after the IPO.
But looking at the $28.5 trillion addressable market they are targeting across connectivity and AI, this isn't a traditional value play anyway. They are scaling compute power, pouring 76% of Q1 capex into AI, and tying everything to the flight rate of Starship. If they pull off the narrative of orbital AI compute and global tech dominance, the upside potential is massive. This is pure growth, and the premium is all about buying into the future scale. Let's see how the market prices this kind of ambition.