u/Fine_Personality_999

As this team has aged—rapidly under Jeff Jackson then a little less under Bowman—the Oilers 5v5 scoring has also declined.

While 5v5 goals for aren’t the number #1 indicator of success (goal differential and xGF% are far better measures) it is noticeable that this team scores about 20 less goals a season at 5v5 than they used to.

I have my concerns about this team’s 5v5 offense this season, especially as Hyman, Nuge and Ekholm all age.

Really hoping Savoie, Podz, Howard and perhaps Colton Dach (and even Josh Samanski) can help pick up the slack.

This team is in desperate need of 2-3 of these guys becoming 20 goal scorers as McDavid and Draisaitl age.

First, I have massive respect for what Daryl’s built in terms of an arena and investment in Edmonton. He’s stabilized the franchise and helped (along with McDavid) turn it into a profitable powerhouse of business.

I give him huge props for doing this. He kept the team in Edmonton. He loves the city and the fans and the game.

But that’s basically where this ends…

From Steve Tambellini, the McTabish hiccup, to Peter (the terrible) Chiarelli, to Ken Holland and now Stan Bowman, it’s becoming very apparent Daryl can’t pick GMs.

And not only can he not pick GMs, Jeff Jackson and Bobby Nicks would like a word from the presidential suite.

The pattern seems to be: Daryl hires hockey man with hockey reputation. He gives them free rein. They fuck up. And he sweeps in and attempts to clean up the mess, with more hockey-men like thinking.

And it’s becoming extremely clear that this multi billion dollar franchise—which through luck of the Gods and sheer incompetence has the world’s best player—is being run on the whims of the owners emotions.

Not analytics.

Not best practices.

Not patience.

Emotion from a fan who owns the team, loves the team, but can’t seem to recognize his own pattern of destructive behavior in creating the very messes the team now finds itself in.

EDIT: Not to mention that during this 15-ish year period of Daryl’s patterns, a hockey analytics revolution was happening, driven by fans of the Oilers (and the Oilers managements poor decisions).

It’s rather poetic that a former early analytics Oiler employee and diehard fan—Tyler Dellow—is now the AGM of the Carolina Hurricanes (the most analytics driven team in the league) playing in the cup finals. And that the Oilers were just beat by another fan and former blogger, Sunny Metha, in Florida, who’s now the Devils GM… you just couldn’t make this up. It’s stranger than fiction.

We’re not even in the offseason and this “offseason” (not to mention the return of Coffey mid-season) has been a soap opera.

I pray someone close to Daryl maybe steps in, has a word, preaches some sanity.

Like I get, Daryl. I wanted Knob gone. I don’t think Stan has done the “great job” when you and us needed him to do at least to do a “good job” to keep this window open as GM.

But Daryl, you hired these men. You threw a lot of money at them. And you’re paying them to not work for you.

Something has to give here, because this pattern isn’t working.

2018-19 Leafs had:

Tavares

Matthews

Marner

Nylander

Kadri

Kapanen

C. Brown

Marleau

Hyman

Morgan Reilly

Jake Gardiner

Jake Muzzin (30 games)

Not only does Babcock have the baggage, he’s also a dinosaur and has a poor track record of coaching teams 5v5 in recent history.

The Leafs became a possession juggernaut under Sheldon Keefe (but always did Leaf things come playoffs).

Reminded that Carolina (1st) and VGK (4th) are two of the top teams at 5v5 in xGF% playing in the finals right now.

Never underestimate the 5v5 fancy stats come playoffs.

Not only did VGK control the play the majority of the series versus COL, they've also been arguably the best team in the NHL for the last 3 months.

Bet on the numbers.

Bet on the players that drive play.

Bet on a system (Cassidy, Torts, Brind'amour, Maurice) that consistently get these results at 5v5.

Any coach the Oilers hire SHOULD have a consistent track record in delivering quality possession hockey.

Bruce Cassidy's Knights delivered.

For the record, Craig Berube's Leafs ranked 16th (2025) and 26th (this season) over the last 2 seasons in xGF% at 5v5.

Don't hire Craig Berube.

Find a coach that can coach a possession-heavy system.

Every year the fancies tell us the same story.

Watch out for the top xGF% teams at 5v5.

YES, both CAR and COL could lose in the 3rd round (or even this round, though it's statistically unlikely). But it's amazing how consistent this model is at predicting playoff success.

OTT was 3rd (lost to CAR in rd 1).

TBL was 4th (lost a heartbreaker to MTL).

VGK was 5th (still playing, beat UTAH who was 6th in xGF% during the regular season).

This 25-26 Oilers team did have elite stretches of play, most notably when Connor went nuclear through November+December, and post-Olympics when Drai was healthy.

But this Oilers team, be it the coaching (possible) or the roster itself (also flawed), never got it together like previous teams.

The Oilers 24' team was 2nd in 5v5 Expected Goals %. The 25' team was 3rd.

FLA was top 3 both seasons they won the Cup too.