Translation:

As the European Union begins disbursing €90 billion to support Kyiv through the end of 2027, Ukraine is already asking for an additional several dozen billion euros. Europe is looking for solutions and may have to reopen the debate over using Russian assets frozen on the continent.

The meeting was highly anticipated. On Tuesday, September 29, Ukraine's main donors, from the European Union and G7 members to Norway and South Korea, met with a Ukrainian delegation at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, in the presence of representatives of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The goal was to assess Kyiv's needs, as Ukraine is already requesting additional funding despite the aid that has already been pledged.

Against a backdrop of tight budgets, with European public opinion increasingly reluctant to tighten their belts to support Ukraine, Europeans know the issue is politically sensitive. As a result, the debate over using the €210 billion in Russian funds frozen in Europe since the beginning of the war, which divided the 27 EU member states a year ago, is bound to resurface.

Since August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly stressed that his country needs more money than its international partners have committed to providing. During a Coalition of the Willing meeting in Kyiv on August 24, he surprised his counterparts by saying that Ukraine faced a $27 billion (€23 billion) "gap" in its budget for 2026 alone.

"It feels like watering the desert"

"We have found ways to reduce this amount," Ukrainian Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko said Monday at a conference hosted by the European Policy Centre think tank in Brussels. However, he added, Ukraine needs to find around €69 billion for 2027, including €40 billion to cover military spending and €29 billion to keep state services running.

The intensification of Russian bombardments in recent weeks has damaged the country's economy and reduced tax revenues, Kyiv says. At the same time, the blockade of grain exports through the Black Sea, which has led to a 60% drop in agricultural exports, is depriving Ukraine of valuable foreign currency.

These calculations take into account bilateral aid pledged by Kyiv's partners, as well as the €90 billion that the 27 EU member states plan to borrow jointly to cover Ukraine's financial needs in 2026 and 2027. Each year, €30 billion is to be used to arm the country and €15 billion to support its budget.

By mid-September, Brussels had already disbursed €15 billion to finance military equipment purchases. "Since February 2022, the EU and its member states have provided nearly €225 billion in aid to Ukraine and Ukrainians," European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos told donors on Tuesday. This comes as the United States has not provided Kyiv with any further funding since Donald Trump returned to the White House in early 2025.

"It feels like we are watering the desert," a dismayed European diplomat said. Despite the dire situation Ukraine is facing, the new request for additional funding is struggling to gain support in Brussels. It comes at a politically difficult time. The 27 EU member states are engaged in extensive negotiations over the bloc's next multiannual budget, which includes a €100 billion package for Ukraine for 2028-2034. But Germany and its "frugal" allies want to cut the budget by several hundred billion euros, making it difficult to announce additional aid for Kyiv.

A series of crucial national elections is also scheduled for 2027 in France, Spain, Poland and Italy, where funding for Ukraine is particularly sensitive. In France, National Rally candidate Marine Le Pen, whom polls show as the frontrunner, has already announced that she would end financial aid to Kyiv if elected.

For now, Brussels is holding off. "We are waiting for the details of the needs, and we will see how we can respond. The discussion is expected at the meeting of finance ministers on October 9, and possibly at the European Council in mid-October," a European diplomat said. Several of his colleagues also point out that the Ukrainian government has not yet used the €15 billion allocated to cover its operating expenses.

The disbursement of this money is conditional on a series of reforms Ukraine must implement, particularly measures to fight corruption, following a number of scandals involving people close to Volodymyr Zelensky during the summer. "Our message to our Ukrainian friends is clear: implement the agreed reforms so that we can continue to provide you with financial support," Marta Kos stressed.

"The Rada is due to reconvene in mid-October, and I hope it will make progress on the requested reforms," Marchenko said. "Nevertheless, some of the EU's demands concern the introduction of new taxes. This is not the right time to raise taxes on our businesses, which are already suffering greatly."

All available options

Before launching any new initiative, the European Commission is proposing to use all of the bloc's available financing mechanisms. In mid-September, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed using funds still available from the €150 billion loan the EU executive raised to finance Europe's rearmament. Each country benefiting from the funds would be responsible for repaying the amount it uses. Around €20 billion remains unallocated and could therefore be used to finance purchases of drones and other interceptors for Kyiv. However, member states would first have to agree to take on the repayment. At present, this is considered unthinkable in Berlin or Paris.

In the immediate term, the European Peace Facility, with €6.6 billion in funding, could be partially used to help Kyiv. The possibility had long been blocked by Hungary's veto but became viable again following Viktor Orban's electoral defeat in April. Europeans could also bring forward the disbursement of funds planned for 2027 under the €90 billion loan, but this would only postpone the problem.

That leaves the €210 billion in Russian state assets frozen in Europe, including €180 billion held by Euroclear in Belgium, which Kyiv has been calling for months to seize. Germany, which opposes any new joint European borrowing, had already sought to promote this solution in 2025, with support from Sweden, the Netherlands and others. However, Belgium strongly opposed it, forcing Chancellor Friedrich Merz to accept the solution of a new €90 billion joint loan.

Berlin and its allies are now pushing the idea again, but Belgium does not appear ready to change its position, and the Commission has not yet found a solution that would shield the country from legal action. Given the situation in Ukraine, Fabian Zuleeg, director of the European Policy Centre, said that "even if we were to use the frozen Russian funds, it would be a temporary solution. Europe needs to think about a sustainable and permanent solution," because the financial needs, both during the war and afterward for reconstruction, will be enormous.

Translation:

In Zvenyhorodka, Cherkasy region, a 54-year-old man who was on his way to undergo a military medical examination (VLC) ended up on the operating table with multiple rib fractures and a ruptured lung after visiting the local Territorial Recruitment and Social Support Center (TCC).

This was reported by Dmytro Lubinets, the Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights.

According to the victim, he was supposed to be taken from Zvenyhorodka to Uman for the regular official VLC procedure. Instead, he says he was subjected to violence inside the Zvenyhorodka TCC.

"At the Zvenyhorodka TCC and SP, he was beaten and doused with cold water. The man came for an official procedure and ended up in intensive care several days later with serious injuries. How could this happen?" the ombudsman said.

After visiting the TCC, the man was taken to the operating room in intensive care, where doctors fought for his life. He suffered multiple rib fractures, a ruptured lung and pneumothorax.

"In 54 years, I have never experienced such humiliating treatment and abuse," the Zvenyhorodka resident said.

The regional military command has already responded to the incident. The head of the Zvenyhorodka district TCC and SP was dismissed.

Lubinets stressed that the investigation should identify not only those who carried out the beating, but also those who witnessed the crime or attempted to cover it up.

"How can it be that a person enters a state institution to undergo an official procedure and ends up in intensive care with a punctured lung? This time, fortunately, the man survived. But such cases can have much more serious consequences, people can die. And this is no longer just about one particular case, it is about people's trust in the state. If a person is afraid that they may leave a state institution after being beaten, that is already a problem," he said.

Translation:

Russia is preparing new drone attacks in Europe, this time targeting Mediterranean countries. U.S. intelligence has gathered information on the Kremlin's plans for escalation and shared it with several European governments. "They will use drones launched from the sea, hidden inside a ship's container. It is not difficult at all," a source close to Lithuania's Defense Ministry said on condition of anonymity.

The justification for such an escalation has been raised repeatedly. Moscow has argued that the supply of weapons, intelligence and military advisers to Ukraine makes Western countries participants in the war and legitimate targets. So far, Russia has operated below what experts call the "war threshold," avoiding actions that could trigger a coordinated NATO response, while carrying out an expanding sabotage campaign against targets in countries supporting Ukraine, as well as isolated incidents apparently intended to test European limits and responses.

A first escalation came a year ago, when 19 unarmed drones veered into Polish airspace. The major turning point was the recent incident involving armed drones at Leipzig Airport, which German authorities attributed to Russian intelligence.

Lithuanian authorities now reportedly know the type of drone Russia could use against Spain, France or Italy. It would be a Gerbera, approximately two meters long, with a 2.5-meter wingspan, weighing up to 18 kg, reaching around 160 km/h and having a stated maximum range of 600 km, depending on its explosive payload and factors such as wind. A merchant ship could carry several of them and launch them more easily than the considerably larger Shahed or Geran drones.

From 200 to 300 km off the coast, the flight would take roughly 1.25 to two hours, depending on its actual speed. Its small payload would not be enough to destroy a major facility, but could start a fire, damage exposed equipment or temporarily close a port or airport. The intended effect could be political and economic as well as material.

Lithuania, along with other countries, has reportedly had this information since shortly after CIA Director John Ratcliffe's mysterious trip to Moscow on August 25. Ratcliffe arrived on a U.S. military aircraft that had stopped in Riga, on NATO's Baltic flank. There is no public record of him holding meetings in Latvia, although diplomatic sources from a Baltic country confirmed that they knew about the trip in advance and were later briefed on its contents. The Wall Street Journal and Politico reported that Ratcliffe went to warn Russia against any attack or provocation against NATO.

According to sources familiar with the warning, the governments of Spain, France and Italy were also informed that Russia was preparing a possible drone operation against one of those countries. The warning coincides with an unusual response from Emmanuel Macron. After convening the Defense Council on September 16, he invited the leaders of all political parties and candidates for the 2027 presidential election to the Élysée Palace two days later. Several defense analysts consulted by El Mundo confirmed that they were aware of a CIA report circulating among European foreign ministries, describing the potential attack in considerable detail and which French officials reportedly considered highly credible.

Why Spain, France or Italy? All three countries have elections in 2027 and political movements that could exploit public fear and war fatigue over Ukraine. France and Italy, in particular, have figures or positions viewed as close to Kremlin interests. On September 23, left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon attributed the intensification of the Russian threat in Europe to Ukraine's "long-range attacks" on Russian territory.

Keir Giles, a British analyst specializing in Russian military strategy who has worked for the UK's Defence Academy, warns that Spain's distance from Russia does not guarantee its security. "It is not necessarily the frontline countries that will be targeted. The target will be wherever Europe's weakest point is," he said. Among potentially vulnerable countries, he cited "countries such as the UK or Spain, which have not invested in adequate integrated air and missile defense systems for the Russian threat."

The main purpose of an attack using Gerberas launched from a merchant ship would not necessarily be to cause major destruction. With an explosive payload of around four or five kilograms, the drone could be used to close an airport, start a fire, fly over a military facility or demonstrate that Russia can reach Europe's rear areas. "Russia looks at where any action would have the greatest impact because of a lack of resilience, civil defense and political fragility," Giles said. He described target selection as "an equation that constantly changes," with Moscow calculating where it could achieve the greatest effect with the risks and resources it is willing to commit.

The idea of launching drones from ships against NATO was raised by the Ukrainian outlet Defense Express exactly a year ago. It reported that Gerberas could be transported aboard tankers from Russia's shadow fleet and launched using catapults from international waters. "The Russian Federation had already practiced launching unmanned aerial vehicles from ships. For example, in 2020, ZALA, a Russian drone manufacturer linked to the Kalashnikov arms conglomerate, conducted demonstration launches from a moving vessel."

In October 2024, Russia resumed these experiments from an almost stationary maritime platform. Beyond the exercises, there has already been an incident in the Baltic. In February, a Swedish naval unit detected a drone taking off from the Russian signals-intelligence vessel Zhigulevsk in the Øresund Strait. Sweden jammed the drone and described the flight as a violation of its airspace. At the time, the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle was in Malmö. The drone remained more than 10 km away and was not identified. On September 14, a Russian warship fired two emergency flares at a Danish military helicopter conducting routine surveillance in international waters in the Baltic Sea.

Russian circles close to the military establishment are already presenting the southern Mediterranean flank as a potential route for threatening France and have even circulated a list of possible targets. On September 19, one day after Macron's meeting, the influential Telegram channel Rybar published a map of the Mediterranean titled "Russian medicine for French arrogance." The post speculated about supplying Geran-5 drones to Algeria and claimed they could reach aircraft factories, military bases, nuclear power plants and petrochemical facilities in southern France.

"The impression the Russians want to create is their own Spider Web," the Lithuanian source said, referring to Ukraine's spectacular operation in which drones were hidden in containers transported by trucks across Russia without the drivers' knowledge, then released near Russian airfields to destroy several aircraft. Baltic intelligence sources link Russia's increased aggression to the damage Ukrainian attacks have inflicted on its energy sector.

The recent intensification of Russian sabotage activity has several objectives: reducing support for Ukraine, creating divisions within NATO and alarming the European population. Poland is also reportedly handling similar intelligence. Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned of possible Russian drone or missile attacks against countries supporting Ukraine and said countries have already demonstrated their ability to stop such operations or identify those responsible and their sponsors. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys warned: "Russia will not hide. We simply need to prevent the consequences."

The Gerbera's wingspan is slightly wider than the typical internal width of a shipping container. It could potentially be transported with its wings detached, folded or positioned diagonally and prepared on deck. Gerberas have already entered EU airspace. A Gerbera-2, a variant of the Russian drone recently recovered off the Polish coast, carried a fragmentation warhead with a detonator and around four kilograms of explosives. That incident was not a naval launch and the drone probably arrived from Kaliningrad through Lithuania.

The method is not exclusive to Russia. Ukraine already launches aerial drones from maritime platforms, and some analysts believe Russia's move could prompt a response. In a Bloomberg report, a person close to the Kremlin warned of an intention to punish Europe for supporting Kyiv.