u/FuckTheWallStCunts

The chart has materially improved, with price above both the 8‑day EMA and the 21‑day EMA; the 8‑day is flat-to-rising and the chart has now printed “Trend Repair.” My Bottom Watch is at 6, with positive MACD, RSI around 69, and a “Starter Add” setup already active. The late‑July base has developed into a real short‑term recovery rather than just another one-day dead‑cat bounce. 

The caution flag is that RSI around 69 is getting close to overbought territory, and ATR is contracting. This can mean the move is consolidating constructively, but it can also mean don’t expect a straight line upward after a sharp run. For the first time in a while though, the chart’s burden of proof has shifted; it is now holding above rising short-term support instead of repeatedly failing beneath it. 

The notable institutional move and visible bear is still D.E. Shaw, which recently became the publicly disclosed short seller. It was reported at 0.59% of shares (about 2.09M shares), with a later reported increase to 0.62%. This is not an enormous short-squeeze setup by itself, but it is a clear public bet against the company while the tape has turned higher. 

The bottom line is the chart repair is real, D.E. Shaw remains publicly short, insiders are locked out, and August 27 is the next fundamental checkpoint. Great-looking chart momentum is not earnings results, of course, but after the long bleed, this is the most constructive technical setup SIVEF has shown in weeks.

D.E. Shaw has increased its short position in Sivers to about 0.59% of the share capital, roughly 2.09M shares. That puts them over the 0.5% Swedish reporting threshold, which is why they’ve now shown up as a publicly disclosed short seller.

According to the Swedish rules, positions over 0.1% have to be reported to the regulator, and anything over 0.5% becomes visible to the market. So D.E. Shaw hasn’t just opened a tiny bet, they’ve scaled it enough that it has to be posted on the board.

At the moment, they’re listed as the only public short, but total short interest (including smaller, non‑public positions) sits around 2.6% of the share capital. So, there’s one big quant fund taking a visible swing, plus a bunch of smaller shorts hiding below 0.5%.

It doesn’t tell us the direction of the next candle, it tells us who’s on the other side of the trade. A major quant shop is now officially betting against Sivers at current levels.

For anyone tracking the “Sivers vs. shorts” narrative, this marks a transition from the earlier situation (one disclosed short dropping below the line) to a new one: D.E. Shaw stepping in as the flagship public bear.

As always, it’s one puzzle piece. Sivers still has to execute on POET/CPO, AI datacenter, and Q2/Q3 numbers; shorts still have to manage their risk if the story goes against them. No guarantees either way, just more information on who’s pushing from the downside.

SIVEF chart says “first signs of stabilization, not a full‑blown bottom.” 

Price is around $3.87, green on the day. EMA8 has finally gone flat/up instead of pointing straight down, while EMA21 is still sliding but less steep than in June/July. The candle is up near EMA8, not buried under it, and my Bottom Watch panel has lit up with Bottom Score 5, “EMA8 Flat/Up,” “ATR Expanding,” RSI7 in the high‑50s, MACD histogram firmly positive, and that bright Starter Add tag down in the lower chart. So, momentum and volatility are improving, and the system thinks a tiny probe position wouldn’t be insane, but the big banner still says NO BOTTOM YET. This is an early repair attempt inside a damaged trend, not a confirmed higher‑low structure.

On the insider/institutional front, there’s nothing new on the tape since the lock‑up expiry/AGM cluster in July.

Today’s Starter Add doesn’t magically erase the downtrend or guarantee a moonshot. It just says the tape has finally shifted from “straight bleed” to “trying to base,” while insiders sit locked up and the next real fundamental catalyst (Q2 and any POET/CPO updates) is still in front of us. Whether this turns into a true higher low or just another dead‑cat bounce is something the chart will answer in the coming weeks, not something any indicator can promise today.

Today finally looks a bit different from the slow bleed we’ve been watching.

On the daily SIVEF chart: 

Price is around $3.35, green on the day and pushing up into that little cluster of recent candles instead of sagging under them. 

Back‑to‑back EMA8 Reclaim tags now, and the 8‑day EMA is starting to flatten instead of pointing straight down. It’s still below the 21‑day, but the gap is closing instead of widening. 

My Bottom Watch has bumped up to a Bottom Score of 4, still flagged as EMA8 Down / ATR Expanding / NO BOTTOM YET, but RSI7 has climbed into the low‑40s and MACD histogram is a small positive green bar. That’s early repair, not full‑on trend change. 

Volume picked up on this move…the latest bar is one of the bigger yellow/green sticks we’ve seen in this consolidation zone, which is the first time in a while buyers are doing something other than just catching falling knives. 

To sum it up for those of you from California public schools: 

The stock finally stopped oozing lower and put in a legit bounce with improving momentum. EMA8 is curling, Bottom Score is waking up, and green volume actually showed up. But EMA8 is still under EMA21, the system banner still says “NO BOTTOM YET,” and we don’t have a confirmed higher low or Trend Repair signal. 

Translation is “The patient has a pulse again, but still in triage.” Any real bottom probably gets called in hindsight after we see EMA8 cross 21, a higher low stick, and this volume pattern repeat, not off a single nice candle.

On today’s daily chart, SIVEF does look like it’s trying to “tickle” some kind of short‑term bottom, but my tools still treat it as a damaged trend.

Price is around $3.12, green on the day. Short EMA(8) is still below EMA(21), both EMAs are drifting down, but the slope is a bit less steep than a couple of weeks ago. The latest candle is right around EMA(8) rather than way below it, so the selling pressure has cooled off compared to the June/early July flush. My Bottom Watch readout shows Bottom Score: 1, EMA8 Down, ATR Expanding (small bounce but still choppy), RSI7 ~38.7, MACD hist ~0.057, HL Line: 0, and the big label at the top still says “NO BOTTOM YET / NO ADD.” All the strong signals (Trend Repair, Starter Add, confirmed higher‑low attempts) are still sitting back in the May/early June run. In this new zone we mostly have tiny bounces and an “EMA8 reclaim” tag that hasn’t yet turned into a real base.

If you squint, the stock is flirting with a short‑term floor; volatility is lower than the peak, momentum isn’t melting down, price isn’t free‑falling anymore. But structurally the chart still reads like “downtrend with early signs of stabilization,” not a clean bottom. With insiders locked out of trading until August 27, the next real catalyst is the Q2 print; until then, we just watch whether this tentative grind around $3 turns into a proper higher low or just another staging area for the next leg.

 

Quick check‑in on Sivers now that we’ve hit the EU closed period...

On the insider side, nothing new has hit since the company’s own “lock‑up expiry and insider transactions” release from late July. That press release basically locked in the post‑lockup picture: CEO Vathulya bought 70k more shares and now holds ~4.54M plus stock options; chairman Bastani sold 275k, donated 60k and gifted 70k, but still owns about 381k; Todd Thomson’s Headwaters vehicle sold around 950k and donated 50k, with 477k left under a one‑year lock‑up. Kairos Ventures exited its ~3.5M block via that big Pareto cross, so that fund‑level overhang is already out of the way. As of today, July 28, the MAR closed period is in force ahead of the Q2 report on August 27, which means none of these insiders are allowed to trade at all between now and the earnings release. The selling and buying they wanted to do around the lock‑up appears largely done, and we shouldn’t see new insider prints until late August.

On the institutional/short side, the picture is more about who’s stepped back than who’s newly shorting. Earlier in the year, short interest was reported up around the low‑single‑digit percent of float, with a couple of quant shops visible. One of the bigger ones has now dropped below the Swedish 0.5% reporting line and no longer shows a live short position. There’s still a single disclosed short around the 2–3% mark, but the wave of shorting that chased the blow‑off top has clearly cooled down. On the long side, institutional ownership in the Sweden listing and related instruments has climbed into the mid‑teens percentage range, but the bulk of the stock is still retail and nominee accounts. So, there’s a mix: one big fund out, some board trimming, the CEO leaning in, shorts less aggressive, and a decent chunk of the float still in the hands of small players.

On today’s daily SIVEF chart:

Sitting around $2.95, another red candle. EMA(8) is still under EMA(21), both EMAs are sloping down, and price lives below the short EMA again after that brief “EMA8 reclaim” from mid‑July. My Bottom Watch study shows a bottom score of 1 out of 7, EMA8 Down, ATR Contracting, RSI7 ~29.5, MACD histogram barely positive, and the higher‑low line still at zero. The big status bar across the top is unchanged: “NO BOTTOM YET / NO ADD.” All the “good” signals (Trend Repair, multiple EMA8 reclaims, Starter Add arrows and “Higher Low?” bubbles) are still clumped back in the May-to-early June run. The recent action is a grind of lower highs and lower lows with small, failing bounces against a falling 8‑day and 21‑day EMA.

Structurally, the Kairos fund overhang is gone, insiders have done their post‑lockup moves and are now in a legally enforced quiet period, shorts have backed off a bit, and a CEO with millions of shares has leaned further into his position. At the same time, the tape is still telling a pretty simple story: Downtrend intact, volatility off the peak, no confirmed bottom formation yet. From here until August 27, there shouldn’t be any new insider trades to move the stock; the next real catalyst is the Q2 report. Between now and then, it’s just the market chewing on a broken chart, a mixed insider narrative, and whatever expectations people are baking into those numbers.

 

Quick state of play based on public info and my own daily chart. Not advice, just a summary.

The short‑interest picture has shifted. One of the bigger quants, Two Sigma, has dropped below the Swedish 0.5% reporting line and no longer shows an active disclosed short. There’s still a single reported short position around 2.7% of the float, down from the 4%‑ish peak earlier in the year. Between the block trade and the short data, a fund overhang has been removed, some board‑level de‑risking, the CEO is leaning in, and the most aggressive shorts are quietly stepping back.

An important calendar change of note is under EU MAR, Sivers starts a formal “closed period” on July 28 ahead of its Q2 report, which is scheduled for August 27 before the Stockholm open. During that window insiders are not allowed to trade the stock at all. The current batch of insider buys/sells is basically the last we’ll see until late August; from here on out, the tape will be driven by regular market activity and whatever the quarterly numbers say, not new insider prints.

On today’s daily SIVEF chart price is sitting around $3.16, another red candle. EMA(8) is still below EMA(21), both are sloping down. The most recent EMA8 reclaim from earlier in the week has faded, and price is back under the short EMA. My Bottom Watch study shows a bottom score of 2 out of 7, EMA8 down, ATR contracting, RSI7 around 31, MACD histogram only slightly positive, and the higher‑low line still at zero. The big status label across the top hasn’t budged: “NO BOTTOM YET.” All the strong signals including Trend Repair, multiple EMA8 reclaims, Starter Add arrows and “Higher Low?” tags are still clumped in the May/early‑June run. The current area is a string of lower highs and lower lows with small bounces that don’t yet resolve into a proper base.

The last few days have actually clarified the insider story. The CEO has added, some board members have lightened up but remain invested, Kairos is out, and short interest has backed off a bit. The stock is still trading well below its medium‑term moving averages, the daily trend is down, and my own indicators keep classifying this as “post‑panic, not a confirmed bottom.” From here, there won’t be any new insider trades until after August 27, so the next real new information is the Q2 report. Until then, the tape is just the market digesting that mix of CEO conviction, board trimming, and a chart that hasn’t repaired yet.

SIVEF has been absolutely crushed. It is the classic combination of an overheated sector, major dilution, aggressive short selling, and a lockup window that has traders on edge.

Where SIVEF Is Right Now

·         The stock ran from pennies into the high single digits on an AI photonics, defense, and Nasdaq-listing narrative.

·         It has now fallen back into the mid-$3 range.

·         Anyone who sized up near $8 is sitting on a brutal drawdown.

This is no longer a clean momentum trade. It has turned into a high-risk, high-volatility small-cap situation with a broken chart and a damaged narrative.

What Hit the Stock

Sector-wide AI chip pullback

The broader semiconductor and AI complex had a huge first-half rally and then started to unwind. Profit-taking hit the group, ETF flows reversed, and investors began questioning whether AI capital spending had gotten too far ahead of itself.

SIVEF got caught in that wave. It was not singled out. It was part of a larger de-risking move across semiconductors, memory, photonics, and AI-adjacent names.

Major dilution

At the end of June, Sivers announced a directed share issue worth roughly 700 million SEK. That meant discounted new shares and significant dilution for existing holders.

The market read was simple:

·         The company wanted cash while the stock was still elevated.

·         Existing shareholders now own a smaller percentage of future upside.

·         The story became riskier on a per-share basis.

For a small-cap growth stock that had already gone vertical, a raise of that size is often enough to cause major damage even without a sector correction.

Short sellers were already there

SIVEF had already become a favorite short target. From the bearish point of view, the setup looked obvious:

·         An explosive multi-hundred-percent move.

·         A company still not consistently profitable.

·         A valuation built heavily on future promises.

·         A Nasdaq listing story that kept traders excited but still left room for disappointment.

·         Thin enough trading that downside pressure could become self-reinforcing.

Shorts pressed into the raise and the sector selloff, and so far they have been rewarded.

Lockup expiry and insider anxiety

Key insiders were locked up until today, July 16, which means they were restricted from selling until now. Most of the collapse into the $3 range happened before they were free to sell.

That matters because it weakens the claim that the entire dump was caused by insiders racing for the exit. At the same time, the lockup expiry creates a fresh overhang because the market now knows selling is at least possible.

So far, the market reaction looks more like a mix of sector weakness, dilution, and short pressure than confirmed insider abandonment.

Where Things Stand Now

At this point, SIVEF is no longer trading like a clean growth breakout. It is trading like a speculative small-cap trying to stabilize after a violent repricing.

The short side has won the first round. The question now is whether the easy money on the downside has already been made or whether there is still more air to come out of the trade.

What Happens Next

Near-term possibilities

There are really two paths in the short term:

·         More downside if insider selling shows up, the semiconductor complex keeps weakening, or the company fails to rebuild confidence.

·         A violent relief rally if insiders do not dump, short sellers start covering, and traders decide the dilution has already been priced in.

Because the stock is small, emotional, and heavily narrative-driven, either move could be fast and exaggerated.

Medium-term reality

For SIVEF to recover meaningfully, it needs more than hype. It needs:

·         Real revenue follow-through.

·         Better visibility into execution.

·         Confidence that the capital raise was enough.

·         Sector stabilization in semiconductors and AI infrastructure.

·         Some proof that the photonics and defense story is turning into tangible business results.

Without that, the stock risks becoming another classic small-cap AI story that ran too far too fast and then spent a long time digesting the move.

The Bottom Line

The short sellers were not just throwing random hate at SIVEF. They saw a thin, speculative AI name that had gone vertical, was still dependent on future execution, and then hit shareholders with a large dilutive raise right as the semiconductor sector started rolling over.

So far, they have been right.

From here, the real debate is not whether the shorts won the last move. They did. The real debate is whether SIVEF can survive the dilution, ride out the semiconductor pullback, and eventually deliver enough real business progress to force the market to believe the story again. I am long, so I’ve been told…