u/Gambizy

I am on a plane bored and wired on coffee and nicotine, so I thought I’d run some numbers on MF performance. This analysis is only for stock advisor their most popular and successful premium service and only goes back 15 years. After I will post some personal thoughts, but interpretation is up to you.

26 7 +.35. 245
25 24 -.1 -240
24 24 -.32 -768
23 23 -.33 -759
22 22 -.54. -1188
21 20 -.98 - 1960
20 20 -.46 -920
19 16 -1.00 -1600
18 19 -.21 -399
17 18 5.02 9036
16 16 1.42 2272
15 12 .48 576
14 8 .67 536
13 9 6.68 6012
12 11 21.12 23232
11 8 5.54 4432

Column 1 is the year.
Column 2 is the # of picks.
Column 3 is the average return against market
Column 4 is the total weight of the year.

Thoughts
- MF has done pretty bad since 2017 and doesn’t beat the market until the nvda 81x pick
- Many people in this sub complaining started in 2021, that was a brutal year for their picks
- 2012 tsla 193x pick is insane, hopefully there is a diamond or two in the rough of these past 7~ years of picks
- The picks that are discontinued don’t show in the websites data, so the numbers are higher than true returns
- It is natural to increase investment size over time as income grows/inflation. Recent losses hurt more because of this.
- I know one of the main people in MF left in recent years, it’s possible these recent years are a result of his departure

Would love to know others thoughts and interpretations from this data

I have been a champion for motley fool since I started in 2020. I last defended them here at the beginning of 2025 against people who bought a couple stocks at the peak of a growth sector rally and complained when the market was tanking. Obviously their picks were doing bad. They didn’t follow the philosophy of buying all picks and waiting a significant time. I’ve felt that frustration when the market declines because growth is always hit harder.

My doom post stems from the fact that since that early 2025 debate the market has turned around. It’s primarily on the back of AI stocks and growth stocks. The problem is that they aren’t MF picks. This is the first rally where the MF picks haven’t been the drivers and are mostly completely out of it. Some of their growth stocks that they have recommended many times are actually down during this bull run. Have they lost their edge?