Chapter 36 Theory
Amado has his own shinjutsu, and he's Shibai's Black Zetsu
I think Amado has a personal shinjutsu: a narrow prescience that only shows him the moment the Karma is transplanted into Akebi and the steps needed to make it happen. This is different from Kashin Koji's Ten Paths (which shows many possible futures in irregular updates) and different from Ada's Senrigan (which shows all past and present since her birth). Combined with his own genius intellect, this would make Amado something closer to Kaguya's Black Zetsu: a figure everyone assumes is pursuing his own goal, who is actually executing the will of a dormant Otsutsuki.
Chapter 36 evidence: The official V Jump tagline reads:
策謀の果てに 望む未来は— "At the end of his scheming, the future he desires is—". Note: I used the internet to translate this from a cover scan.
Note the framing: a desired future, not a confirmed one. In the same chapter, Amado asks Koji if Ten Paths has ever shown Kawaki successfully implanting Karma into Akebi's clone. Koji says no, it's never happened in any future he's seen, and Jura kills Kawaki in nearly all of them.
So if the chapter shows the transplant succeeding in panels without Koji's usual reel-border framing, that's not one of Koji's visions, which confirms KK saying that outcome doesn't exist for him. That leaves someone else's sight rendering it. Amado is the obvious candidate since he is talking in those panels.
Shibai's Omnipotence: Described as "the programming language of creation," the ability to bring one's own desires into reality. Eida only has a diluted, subconscious fraction via inherited DNA; in Shibai's own hands it can reportedly rewrite life and history itself however he wants. We know Amado can be affected by omnipotence as he was affected by Eida's. If Shibai's will survived in some form tied to his DNA, and Amado has spent the whole series handling and distributing that DNA, Shibai wouldn't need to deceive Amado after the fact. He could simply will Amado's grief and his entire motivating memory of Akebi into existence in the first place. Amado's devotion to resurrecting his daughter could be the very mechanism Shibai is using to resurrect himself.
Black Zetsu parallel: Black Zetsu spent the entire original series manipulating events toward one goal, Kaguya's resurrection, while it was assumed he served Madara or Obito. Amado fits the same structural role. It was Amado who found Shibai's remains and distributed his DNA into Eida, Daemon, Code, and Kashin Koji. If that DNA carries a dormant will the way Kaguya's cells did with Zetsu, then Amado spending the entire story engineering the return of "his daughter" while actually serving as the vessel for Shibai's resurrection is the same, except with a brilliant scientist being manipulated into manipulating everyone else.
Bottom line: Amado isn't lying to us. He believes every part of his story. But his belief itself might be the manufactured piece, seeded by an Omnipotence-capable Otsutsuki whose remains he's been carrying around and using for parts this whole time. His apparent genius for staying several steps ahead of everyone, despite not having Koji's ten paths, would be explained by a narrow, vision tied only to this one outcome: the moment his "daughter" is reborn.