Oakland is worst performing housing market in America, SF is the hottest
The SF housing market is the hottest in the country, but unlike what we saw from 2012-2019 there has been no trickle over to Oakland from the AI boom.
In fact, Oakland is one of the worst performing housing markets in America since 2019 and is the single worst this year. Rockridge is the one exception as homebuyers looking outside of SF look for safety/schools.
$100K invested in a down payment in 2019 would be worth $70K today.
Whether we like it or not, Oakland’s economic growth is tied to being a bedroom community for SF. It looks more and more like that is not the case in this cycle given Oakland’s reputation on quality of life issues like crime, schools, unsheltered homelessness, and illegal dumping.
Perhaps this is a win for the activist/anti-gentrifier crowd. It’s certainly not a win for Oakland’s tax base and existing homeowners. If BART shuts down or sees dramatically lower service levels, look out.
The Oakland as Brooklyn thesis appears to be dead, at least for now.