u/HappyOrangeCat7

The highly anticipated US-China summit just wrapped up, and despite the positive PR spin, Trump left Beijing without securing a concrete agreement on rare earth exports. Shipments of critical metals like dysprosium and terbium are still down roughly 50% year-over-year due to Beijing's licensing delays and export controls.

China knows they control 90% of the refining capacity, and they are actively weaponizing it. If Western defense and tech supply chains cannot rely on diplomatic truces to secure their raw materials, the premium on fully refined, physical metals is going to skyrocket. Are we about to see aerospace and EV manufacturers start panic-buying on the open market to build emergency stockpiles?

A new Reuters report shows China exported 60 tons of Yttrium oxide to the US in March, 50% more than they’ve shipped since the export controls started last April. Yttrium prices went up an insane 6,900% over the last year because of these controls, causing production stoppages in aerospace and semiconductors.

While some are cheering this as a sign that China is relaxing its grip, to me it highlights the terrifying reality of relying on a single state actor for critical tech and defense metals. Beijing can turn the spigot off, cause a 69x price spike, and turn it back on whenever they want to inflict maximum political pain. For those of us holding the RARE basket, doesn't this kind of extreme volatility validate the thesis? Industrial buyers are going to pay massive premiums for predictable, Western-vaulted supply so they don't have to beg Beijing for table scraps every time a trade war flares up.

Trump leaves Beijing with no rare earth deal confirmed