u/Haunting_Version

Stock at ₹782, Q4 results May 23. Here's why I'm watching 👀

TTM numbers are insane 🔥

📈 Sales: ₹3,174 Cr (vs ₹1,967 Cr FY25 — 51% growth)

💰 Op profit: ₹1,118 Cr at 35% OPM (was 20% in FY25)

🎯 P/E compressed from 57x → 26.5x because earnings caught up

🏦 Debt-free, net cash ₹157 Cr, ROCE 27%

Sep 2025 quarter was a monster 🦾

₹1,223 Cr sales (135% YoY 💥) | ₹544 Cr op profit at 44% margin

KAVACH revenue finally flowing post v4.0 certification

Why Q4 could surprise 💸

✅ ₹4,000 Cr KAVACH order book still mostly undelivered

✅ Ni-Cd exports +40% to Middle East — same heat resilience play hitting India next as summers cross 47°C 🌡️

✅ Defence batteries: missile exports to Israel/UAE, torpedo for Navy, FAA-certified for Boeing/Airbus

✅ Siemens Germany picked HBL as 1 of 2 global sources for trains 🚄

✅ Management's old FY27 target of ₹1,900 Cr is already below TTM — guidance gets revised UP

The setup ⚡

If Q4 holds the ₹800-1,000 Cr run-rate at 32%+ margins → re-rating continues

If it normalises back to ₹500 Cr → Sep was lumpy milestone billing, stock cools off

Asymmetric. Results Friday. ⏰

Risks ⚠️

P/B still 11x (not cheap on assets), KAVACH timing depends on Railways, lumpy quarters possible

Not advice, just my notes 📝 anyone else loading up before Friday? 👇

CMP ₹1011 | Mcap ₹94,500 Cr | P/E 19.9 (industry 40) | 52W ₹835–1,059

Pharma's been the most hated sector for 6 months. FIIs dumping, US tariff fear, everyone chasing defence and renewables. Meanwhile this debt-free large-cap is quietly setting up for a monster FY27.

Here's what's stacking up 👇

🩺 Cylinder 1 — Semaglutide is LIVE

Ozempic patent expired March 20. Zydus launched next day (SEMAGLYN / MASHEMA / ALTERME). The kicker: they built their OWN reusable adjustable pen — one device, all doses. Competitors are stuck with single-dose pens. 8.9 Cr Indian diabetics, ~50% cheaper than Novo Nordisk. **Revenue ramp lands in Q1 FY27 numbers.**

💉 Cylinder 2 — Pembrolizumab (Keytruda biosimilar, $31.6B drug)

Dahlia PK study done. Bioequivalence proven. Management said on Q3 call they're aiming to be the **FIRST to file BLA in the US.** Even 1-2% of a $31.6B market = ₹5,000+ Cr revenue. This is the kind of optionality nobody's pricing in at 19x P/E.

**💰 Cylinder 3 — Buyback + US M&A in same month**

- Board meets **May 19 for buyback** (next week)

- Announced **Assertio Holdings acquisition for $166.4M** — instant US oncology footprint

Two corporate actions back-to-back = management signaling.

**📊 Technicals lining up**

- 200 DMA: ₹951 → just reclaimed

- 50 DMA: ₹906 → trending up

- 52W high ₹1,059 → ~7% away

- Base built near ₹900, breakout zone right here

**📈 The numbers**

ROE 18% | Debt-free | Operating revenue ₹26,089 Cr (TTM) | Revenue growth 19% YoY | Pre-tax margin 26%

Trading at **half its industry P/E** while sitting on the best pipeline in Indian pharma.

**🎯 Levels**

Entry: ₹950-990 | SL: ₹880 | Targets: ₹1,150 short / ₹1,350 12M (analyst consensus)

**⚠️ Risks**

US 26% reciprocal tariff overhang, FII outflows, BLA execution risk, valuation already at 19x.

**📄 Full DD with financials, peer comparison, and scenario analysis:**

Report

*Not SEBI registered. Sharing my research, not advice. Positions: tracking, planning entry on May 19 buyback announcement.*

Sharing this because I came close to getting hit twice in 24 hours by what turned out to be a coordinated group. Posting so others recognize the pattern early.

How it started

I was looking for ways to pay off a debt and saw an Instagram story offering money to "rent" my Binance account for a single day. I knew it sounded sketchy, but the pitch was specific — they claimed it wasn't money laundering, just P2P USDT trading, and the need for cash was real on my end. Against better judgment, I agreed and gave them access.

Stage 1 — the actual scam (targeting the buyer, not me)

They put up a USDT sell ad on Binance P2P. When a buyer responded, they immediately pushed them off-platform to WhatsApp. From there, they sent a link disguised as a "KYC verification" step. The link was a phishing setup that drained the buyer's wallet via Trust Wallet once they interacted with it.

Binance explicitly warns users not to move conversations off-platform and not to click external links — but people in a hurry to complete a trade still fall for it.

I got lucky here. Overnight, none of the buyers they targeted clicked through. By morning I recognized the pattern, revoked their access, and locked the account down.

Stage 2 — the part nobody talks about

The next morning I got a WhatsApp message from someone claiming to be the "victim." He said I had scammed him, that he had my KYC details (which were on my Binance account), and that he'd take it to the authorities unless I paid him.

First instinct was panic — pay him off, make it go away, avoid any legal mess. I sat with it, consulted a couple of lawyers, and actually listened to his story. The gaps were obvious once I stopped being scared:

• He couldn't produce a payment screenshot
• No transaction proof of any loss
• Vague timeline that didn't match what I'd seen on the account

When I called the bluff — told him let's go to the police together, I'll be a witness to the scam done to you — he folded immediately. Stopped responding, refused to share any proof.

The takeaway

This is a two-stage operation run by groups, not individuals:

1. Stage 1: Use rented accounts to phish actual buyers (the account holder is the human shield — KYC is on them, not the scammers)
2. Stage 2: If stage 1 fails, pivot and extort the account holder using their own KYC data as leverage

Either way, the person who "rented out" the account is the one exposed. You will not get paid. Your KYC data is now in the hands of a fraud ring. And if their primary scam fails, you become the secondary target.

If you're being pitched this: don't. There is no version of this where you come out clean.

If you've already done it: revoke access immediately, change all passwords, enable 2FA, contact Binance support, and file a cybercrime complaint (in India: cybercrime.gov.in / 1930). Don't pay anyone claiming to be a victim — demand proof and offer to go to authorities together. They will disappear.

Spent the last few weeks doing deep DD on Ceinsys Tech and honestly the risk/reward here is one of the cleanest setups I've seen in a while. 🎯 Geospatial + engineering consulting, riding the government infra capex wave, with margins that are quietly expanding. 📊

🔗 Full writeup with numbers, order book analysis, and catalyst timeline here: [Report](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Uhm7kaKTqQ94ID\_SCuEXh3n9X9SlhjsE/view?usp=drivesdk)

\*\*Key points I cover:\*\* 👇

📌 Why the current valuation is mispriced vs growth trajectory

📌 The 2–3 catalysts that could drive a re-rating

📌 Risks I'm watching (because every thesis has them)

📌 Comparison with peers in the engineering services space

🐻 Genuinely want this torn apart. If you've looked at it and disagree, drop your bear case below — that's worth more than 10 upvotes. 💯

⚠️ \*Holding. Not investment advice. DYOR.\*