I will explain why TVK won based on a few points.
First, the political situation in Tamil Nadu. It is a bit similar to Kerala where governments change even if the ruling party has performed decently. People are politically aware and don’t stick to one side blindly. But unlike Kerala, we don’t have a strong national party presence here. So naturally, the state needs two strong regional parties.
When AIADMK joined with Bharatiya Janata Party, it created a gap. People started looking for another regional option, and that helped TVK grow.
Next, since around 2011, people have been wanting a new party apart from DMK and AIADMK.
People also realized something important. Earlier, DMDK had a chance, but it was not fully supported. The party made mistakes, but people also feel they should have supported it more. Because of that, now voters are more ready to support a new party like TVK.
Also, the points I have shared here are mostly things that are not really up for debate. There are other reasons too, but those are more debatable, so I am not including them here.
Now coming to an important broader point. If people don’t create strong regional options, it can lead to situations like what we are seeing in West Bengal, where Bharatiya Janata Party has gained ground. This shows that if voters don’t build alternatives that match their ideology, they may end up choosing options they don’t fully align with. Even if a ruling government gives decent governance, people still look for ideological comfort. So it is better to create strong options within the state itself
A similar issue can be seen in Andhra Pradesh, where the lack of stable political alternatives at the right time created instability. By the time voters shifted their support, it was already too late. This again shows why having strong internal options is important. Rotating power between parties also helps keep these political options strong and prevents the people from choosing options that is ideologically dangerous
Now coming to the main point. On the ground, TVK was actually strong. I personally felt they could even form a government if Vijay had done more rallies and direct meetings.
In this election, many places where TVK lost were the places where Vijay did not go in person. Also, in many of those constituencies, the losing margin was very small. That clearly shows the support was already there.
A lot of people are just following media narrative, so they are confused. But if you see what actually happened on the ground, TVK’s performance was much stronger than what is being shown.