Has USCIS completely lost control of the T Visa? 2025 numbers are looking very concerning
I’ve been following T Visa groups both on Facebook and here on Reddit, as well as constantly reviewing official data published by USCIS regarding average processing times and approval rates, and I’d like to share an updated overview.
When I was gathering evidence for my own case back in November 2024, the estimated processing time was around 14 months. However, the situation has changed significantly since then. We are now seeing estimates reaching approximately 29.5 months, which clearly reflects a substantial increase in wait times over the past year.
A simple example of this shift can already be seen in receipt processing trends: cases filed between November and December 2024 have started experiencing delays of several months, and for those who applied in 2025, this delay has become even more noticeable.
Looking at the most recent Form I-914 fiscal year 2025 report, there is also a significant drop in the approval rate, which has fallen to around 20.59%. In addition, the annual processing volume does not match the growing demand. There are currently approximately 44,000 cases in backlog as of September 2025, while only about 3,760 cases were processed during the fiscal year (excluding derivatives), highlighting a clear imbalance between incoming applications and adjudications.
Given this scenario, if no effective action is taken by USCIS to address this backlog, the trend is likely to continue, with wait times extending even further and potentially reaching several years in some cases. When we look at the history of other categories, such as the U Visa, which also faced extended backlogs for years, we can see how these bottlenecks can persist for a long time before any meaningful normalization occurs.
Another factor impacting the system is the reported increase in cases considered inconsistent or fraudulent within the category, which, according to community discussions and analysis, may indirectly affect the review process for applicants who genuinely meet the eligibility requirements.
Overall, the current environment reflects slower processing and stricter scrutiny. For those with receipts from 2025, a conservative projection suggests that decisions may only come in later years of the cycle, potentially around 2029 or 2030, depending on how the backlog evolves and USCIS processing capacity.
Finally, it is important to emphasize that these figures may change over time due to administrative adjustments, immigration policy shifts, and operational capacity, so any projection should be interpreted with caution.