u/Hydreigon_Lord

The era of all-male dominance may be coming to an end. That being said, we should remember that TAR35, which had an all-male finale, didn't have an all-male leg win until leg 6, so we'll have to wait and see how the season plays out.

For links to my stats spreadsheets and explanations of the stats, see here.

Individual Placements

Team	Leg 1	Leg 2
(F/F) Ali & Joanna	10th	1st
(M/F) Michelle & Matt	3rd	2nd
(M/F) Cody & Jaime	11th	3rd X
(F/F) Ann-Marie & Riley	7th	4th
(F/F) Jody & Jenn	8th	5th X
(M/F) Daisha & Dalton	12th	6th X
(M/F) Erin & Javi	1st X	7th
(M/F) Anuar & Andrea	6th	8th
(M/M) Conner & Garrett	2nd	9th
(M/M) Doug & Dylan	4th X	10th
(F/F) Dafina & Saran	9th X	11th
(F/F) Katie & Charlotte	5th	12th (X)
(M/M) Zach & Nate	13th (X)

Group Average Placements

The number in parentheses is the number of teams in that group that competed in that leg.

Group	Leg 1	Leg 2
Express Pass Users	4.67 (3)	4.67 (3)
All-Male (M/M) Teams	6.33 (3)	9.50 (2)
Co-Ed (M/F) Teams	6.60 (5)	5.20 (5)
All-Female (F/F) Teams	7.80 (5)	6.60 (5)

Individual Stats

Each continuously-varying stat is followed in parentheses by the team's percentile in that stat, compared to all other teams worldwide.

Team	Leg Wins	Leg Lasts	Racing Average	Normalized RA	Average Dominance
Ali & Joanna	1	0	5.50 (41%)	3.77 (70%)	62.5% (81%)
Michelle & Matt	0	0	2.50 (93%)	1.92 (98%)	87.1% (100%)
Cody & Jaime	0	0	7.00 (25%)	4.70 (55%)	49.2% (60%)
Ann-Marie & Riley	0	0	5.50 (41%)	3.77 (70%)	61.4% (80%)
Jody & Jenn	0	0	6.50 (30%)	4.39 (60%)	52.7% (66%)
Daisha & Dalton	0	0	9.00 (13%)	5.93 (36%)	31.4% (32%)
Erin & Javi	1	0	4.00 (66%)	2.85 (88%)	72.7% (93%)
Anuar & Andrea	0	0	7.00 (25%)	4.70 (55%)	47.3% (57%)
Conner & Garrett	0	0	5.50 (41%)	3.77 (70%)	59.5% (76%)
Doug & Dylan	0	0	7.00 (25%)	4.70 (55%)	46.6% (55%)
Dafina & Saran	0	0	10.00 (8%)	6.54 (30%)	21.2% (19%)
Katie & Charlotte	0	1	8.50 (16%)	7.25 (24%)	33.3% (35%)
Zach & Nate	0	1	13.00 (0%)	11.00 (3%)	0.0% (4%)

Pseudo-Elo Ratings

Michelle & Matt, +511 (up 247, up 264) (79%)
Erin & Javi, +292 (up 370, down 78) (71%)
Ali & Joanna, +203 (down 185, up 388) (67%)
Ann-Marie & Riley, +167 (no change, up 167) (65%)
Conner & Garrett, +108 (up 308, down 200) (62%)
Jody & Jenn, +49 (down 62, up 110) (60%)
Cody & Jaime, +19 (down 247, up 265) (58%)
Anuar & Andrea, –40 (up 62, down 102) (56%)
Doug & Dylan, –64 (up 185, down 249) (54%)
Daisha & Dalton, –230 (down 308, up 78) (44%)
Katie & Charlotte, –248 (up 123, down 371) (43%)
Zach & Nate, –370 (down 370) (30%)
Dafina & Saran, –396 (down 123, down 273) (27%)

Group Stats

Group stats are totals for leg wins and averages for all other stats.

Group	Leg Wins	Leg Lasts	Racing Average	Normalized RA	Average Dominance	Pseudo-Elo Rating
All-Male (M/M) Teams	0	1	8.50	6.49	35.4%	–109
Co-Ed (M/F) Teams	1	0	5.90	4.02	57.6%	+110
All-Female (F/F) Teams	1	1	7.20	5.14	46.2%	–45

Next Leg Probabilities

These probabilities are based on 1,000,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the next leg, based on the teams' positions in all legs so far. These simulations do not take into account Express Passes or potential U-Turns.

A bold probability indicates the most likely placement for a team, and an italic probability indicates the most likely team for a placement.

Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th	11th	Avg. Place
Ali & Joanna	25%	12%	9%	8%	8%	8%	7%	7%	6%	6%	6%	4.71
Michelle & Matt	16%	18%	16%	13%	10%	8%	6%	4%	3%	3%	2%	4.11
Cody & Jaime	16%	12%	9%	8%	8%	8%	8%	9%	8%	8%	7%	5.39
Ann-Marie & Riley	7%	11%	13%	13%	12%	12%	10%	9%	6%	4%	3%	5.22
Jody & Jenn	5%	9%	11%	12%	12%	12%	12%	10%	8%	6%	4%	5.72
Daisha & Dalton	7%	9%	9%	8%	7%	7%	8%	10%	11%	12%	12%	6.47
Erin & Javi	9%	10%	11%	10%	9%	8%	8%	8%	9%	9%	8%	5.81
Anuar & Andrea	3%	4%	6%	8%	10%	12%	13%	14%	13%	10%	6%	6.72
Conner & Garrett	6%	7%	8%	9%	9%	9%	8%	8%	9%	11%	15%	6.60
Doug & Dylan	4%	5%	6%	7%	9%	9%	10%	10%	11%	13%	17%	7.18
Dafina & Saran	3%	3%	3%	4%	5%	7%	9%	12%	15%	18%	21%	8.05

Trivia

This season ties season 38 for the most all-female teams in a U.S. season, with 5.
- This season has the most female racers of any U.S. season with two-racer teams, with 15 (beating the previous record of 14 in season 38).
- 57.7% of this season's racers are female, the third-most of any U.S. season (only behind seasons 5 and 25, which had 59.1%).
At age 73, Doug Matter is the oldest racer in franchise history, beating the previous record of 72 by Volodymyr Vasylenko (UKR1). (The previous U.S. record was 71 by Jordan 'Jody' Kelly in USA16.)
At age 19, Dylan Matter is tied for the youngest racer in U.S. history (excluding Family Edition), with Zachary 'Zac' Sunderland (USA19), Cole LaBrant (USA28), and Cameron Benson (USA28).
With 13 Express Passes, this season has the most Express Passes of any season in franchise history, beating the previous record of 10 Express Passes in TARCAN12.
When I port this season to my route database, the Detour in Leg 2 will be the 1,000th Detour in the database.
Uniqueness of teams' first two placements:
- Ali & Joanna (10th, 1st): 1 prior team (Liz & Michael).
- Michelle & Matt (3rd, 2nd): 10 prior teams, including 6 U.S. teams and 2 winners (Laura & Tyler and Kaisa & Mari).
- Cody & Jaime (11th, 3rd): 1 prior team (USA18 Jet & Cord).
- Ann-Marie & Riley (7th, 4th): 8 prior teams, including 3 U.S. teams.
- Jody & Jenn (8th, 5th): 14 prior teams, including 3 U.S. teams and 1 winner (Jason & Amy).
- Daisha & Dalton (12th, 6th): 1 prior team (Nisim & Orel).
- Erin & Javi (1st, 7th): 3 prior teams, including 1 U.S. team (Anthony & Spencer).
- Anuar & Andrea (6th, 8th): 11 prior teams, including 4 U.S. teams and 1 winner (Amy & Maya).
- Conner & Garrett (2nd, 9th): 2 prior teams (ISR5 Yael & Yosiel and Brett & Mark).
- Doug & Dylan (4th, 10th): 5 prior teams, including 4 U.S. teams.
- Dafina & Saran (9th, 11th): 4 prior teams, none of whom are U.S. teams.
- Katie & Charlotte (5th, 12th): 2 prior teams (Noy & Hadar and Emuna & Neria).
Do you have any other trivia? Leave it in the comments!

TAR39: Stats After Leg 2