u/Hypergeomancer

▲ 33 r/Pauper

Who Goes First? A Riddle Hidden in Your Deck

Sitting down for a playtesting session with a friend, I reach for my dice bag: gone. Left at home.

Since we are running a known, specific matchup, I propose this procedure to decide who plays first:

  1. My opponent calls Even or Odd.

  2. I shuffle and cut my deck, then reveal a random card and look at the collector number of it.

  3. If the parity matches his call, he goes first. Otherwise, I go first.

Neither of us knows the collector numbers of our cards by heart. The cut is genuinely random. The procedure is followed exactly and in good faith.

Here's the puzzle:

(a) Is this a fair coin flip?

(b) If yes, why? If no, how can my opponent exploit it for an edge?

Drop your answers and thoughts in the comments. No spoilers: full solution revealed in one week!

(Hint: you don't need to know a single collector number to crack this.)

reddit.com
u/Hypergeomancer — 2 days ago
▲ 34 r/Pauper

Grixis Affinity vs Mono Red Rally | MTGO Pauper League Gameplay | April 2026

I'm Hypergeomancer, mathematician and competitive Magic player.

I started a new Pauper gameplay series featuring Grixis Affinity. Today’s match is against Mono Red Rally, and we will be in need of doing some real-time math to decide whether to keep a hand or not.

https://youtu.be/kIyfypq83SE

Math bless your draws

u/Hypergeomancer — 7 days ago
▲ 78 r/Pauper+1 crossposts

Probability of Transforming Delver of Secrets — the Full Mathematical Paper

I'm Hypergeomancer, mathematician and competitive Magic player. I've learned that knowing the maths behind the game can give you a genuine edge — a mindset that's carried me to Paupergeddon Top8, among other results.

One of the most iconic questions in Magic has always been: What are the actual odds that Delver flips?

The full paper is now released.

It develops an exact probabilistic framework for Delver of Secrets using hypergeometric distributions, conditional probability, and large-scale Monte Carlo validation, covering:

• Natural Flip probabilities

• Brainstorm Flip odds

• Complete- and Incomplete- information models (from player’s and opponent’s perspectives)

• Turn-2 flip probability in realistic game scenarios.

This is also the biggest and most mathematically complex Magic-related paper I released so far, both in depth and formal rigor.

📄 Full paper: https://zenodo.org/records/20137975

▶️ Video Series

Part 1: https://youtu.be/9bD-Ghp6GsU

Part 2: https://youtu.be/FmcfVn09uYk

Part 3: https://youtu.be/Q6_DPwFnSPA

🖥️ Try it yourself! Use this interactive calculator to test your own deck: https://hypergeomancer.github.io/delver-of-secrets-flip/

If you enjoy gaining edges from mathematics instead of vibes, this one’s for you.

Math bless your draws.

u/Hypergeomancer — 9 days ago
▲ 28 r/Pauper

I'm Hypergeomancer, mathematician and competitive Magic player.

I started a new Pauper gameplay series featuring Grixis Affinity, the beautiful deck that has carried me to Paupergeddon Top8.

Today’s match is against Dimir Terror.

https://youtu.be/31AgI0ULVac

Math bless your draws.

u/Hypergeomancer — 14 days ago
▲ 20 r/Pauper

I'm Hypergeomancer, mathematician and competitive Magic player.

I started a new Pauper gameplay series featuring Grixis Affinity, the beautiful deck that has carried me to Paupergeddon Top8.

Today’s match is against Boros Bully, a classic archetype that still holds its ground in the current metagame.

https://youtu.be/FLBQa\_TUKIc

Math bless your draws.

u/Hypergeomancer — 19 days ago
▲ 41 r/Pauper

I'm Hypergeomancer, mathematician and competitive Magic player.

I started a new Pauper gameplay series featuring Grixis Affinity, the beautiful deck that has carried me to Paupergeddon Top8 in the past.

The first video covers some early matches against Mono R Madness and initial impressions in the current meta. Still refining lines and sideboard plans, so feedback and discussion are very welcome.

https://youtu.be/SP2pxjI3jh8

Math bless your draws.

u/Hypergeomancer — 23 days ago