u/Icy-Dog-3713

Please yall as always these are not all the approvals that were listed or all the ones that get approved those days. Just a small part of of what is available to see for free lol but shows enough for me to see patterns. Mostly IOE09 but generally IOE9 show similar patterns.

The reason I do this is because on Facebook groups and everywhere else, everyone thinks that if no one is posting their timeline, things aren't moving.
If you are still waiting, comment your submission date below. I believe the pattern is them catching up on stuck applications. I believe all November applications should be considered the ones left behind at this point and the most likely to experience the 188–200 day delay. However, remember that there were far more stuck October applications than November ones, because at least November applications kept moving slowly but consistently up until November 18–19.

Another thing worth pointing out: December is here and it keeps rolling. The approval gap is really wide but generally moving, and I hope it eventually closes out within the next month or two. As always, nothing is certain, everything is speculation, and USCIS really has us by the neck. I know there are several other Redditors who post much fancier data, but I still think those approaches paint too much of a doomsday scenario.
I leave yall with this : financially and mentally prepare for 180–200 days. Treat anything less as a victory.
Take care of yourself and log off the groups (it won't change the outcome being here everyday ). The only thing you can do is check once a day or every other day.

Side hustle to create income, save, and have faith that one day the approval will come.

Take care, everyone! Please comment your submission date below. I’m trying to see where we at with the “stuck” applications.

There were over 250 publicly listed approvals that I could see, though I wasn’t able to get all of them cuz it’s a lot lol. Keep in mind this list also doesn’t include the weekend and and much of Friday approvals, which had a good number of November 2nd and 3rd cases( the dat is slow to update). I do believe October and early November filings are finally wrapping up, and that momentum should only keep building from here! (I hope! )

Now, with USCIS, we never really know if the same pace will continue, but I’m feeling pretty confident. I’m genuinely excited for this week to bring more data and hopefully confirm that those vetting delays are finally behind us.

That said, the reality remains the same: there’s simply no way to know exactly how they’re processing applications. This week the range spanned from October all the way to early January, which is encouraging and frustrating . No one has consistently hit the 200-day mark yet, which is a good sign. Still, rather than stressing over when your turn might come, I’d encourage you to mentally prepare for up to 190 days and hope for the best. Setting that expectation now can save you a lot of anxiety (this is what has helped me the most)

This week especially felt like a lot of the “stuck” cases finally broke free, and it’s reassuring to see them continuing to work through December filings too. Time is really the only answer here.

As always, the data below isn’t meant to predict anything with certainty since there are just too many unknowns. Please don’t draw hard conclusions from it. My only hope is that it brings you some comfort knowing cases are not on pause and progress is happening every single day.
Happy Mother’s Day! 💐

P.S. Start working on those side hustles and save, save, save!
😄​​​​​​​​​​

* most of the Dec 4ths are actually December 5th submissions* something I forgot to go back and edit but whatever lol

Posting this again from yesterday since it seemed to help a lot of people. I’m not doing these daily because the data updates pretty slowly, but I’ll probably post once a week on Saturday’s until I finally get approved too lmao 😭
First, none of us, not even lawyers, really know what’s happening inside USCIS so take this data with a grain of salt. The recent news about extra vetting does seem to explain a lot of these delays though, and I personally think late October cases were some of the first heavily affected. I noticed a lot of late October filings had biometrics reused almost a month later, while some November cases got same-day reuse notices, which could explain part of the difference.

Also, MYCASEHUB does NOT show every approval. It’s a limited sample, not a complete system. The free version mostly pulls IOE09 cases (paper applications that were later digitized), so I wouldn’t read too deeply into theories about paper vs. online filings or IOE patterns. The numbering feels random at this point and there just isn’t enough data to make solid conclusions for me personally.

This table is only a snapshot of some approvals NOT a complete lists. I usually stop tracking after around 40 reported cases because it gets impossible to keep up with every update. For example, after I stopped yesterday, another 15 approvals were added later. I stopped after a total of 120 for the three days combined.

Biggest takeaway: approvals have NOT stopped. The approval range is still super wide and frustrating, but overall things still seem to be trending toward approvals staying under 6.5 months.
December cases are starting to move more, October is moving again, and mid-to-late November cases continue getting approved consistently. The hard part is there’s still no reliable way to predict where any individual case falls. Right now, time honestly seems to be the main thing pushing cases forward.
In the meantime, focus on yourself and your future. Build skills, work on backup plans, and find ways to create income if you can. I’ve been lucky enough to work professionally for years, but this process still reminded me how little is guaranteed sometimes. That’s honestly been one of the hardest parts of these delays lol.

Please delete if not allowed. I had a lot time today and my brain needed an activity to focus my worries on lol
I am primarily showing you guys this because a lot of people assume that if no one posts an approval on Reddit, that means that no approvals happened. We have to remember that not everyone posts or is even in groups like we are (I really need to step back and relax from the online groups lol)

Having said all that. I looked at the publicable available applications that show up on the free version of my casehub. Crossed checked them with the uscis case status to check for validity and then crossed checked them with CaseTracker for the file date.

This was on Monday. I started on Tuesday data and shows similar patterns . I want more data to update before publishing those if this group wants more.

What this does not show: a guarantee that you are next or gauge where you are in the process.

What this does show: applications have not been paused and the vetting process continues to cause delays but generally they are now moving faster.

The news of the new vetting process at least gives me closure that things are going to be eventually approved.

The stuck October applications have finally picked up steam. There are consistent early December approvals.

For now: this is the norm. Approvals will range from those left behind and December start picking up steam.

In conclusion: there’s just nothing to do but wait and be patient .

Edit: : Sorry forgot to mention that those bolded black ones are extreme outliers that presented multiple dates for Requests for Evidences so obviously paused for very specific reasons.