u/Icy-Sheepherder-7595

Pretty much what the title says. I executed over $300k in trades (not account value) since 2021 and after reviewing my overall performance and after some recent losses I have essentially broke dead even.

Account value is around $125k. Thats basically all the money I've saved over the last 4 years of working my first job outside some money in a 401k. So it's not all bad, I could've lost it all I guess, it's just that I essentially got the same results as keeping it in a regular savings account but with all the added stress of tracking the market every single day for the last few years. Which took a toll on my mental health, and in some ways my physical health as I lost motivation to workout these last few months when certain plays didn't work out and I was drinking more and eating like garbage. I'd say at the peak of my account's value I was still underperforming the S&P by about 60% anyways.

It made me realize just how much of it was gambling, really the first 4 years were stupid gambles on stuff I barely even remembered doing. Some names I pulled out of like NKE and PYPL before losing money which would've been brutal at the current levels. I sold a few of my biggest recent losers though and just threw it into the S&P and Microsoft, I still hold some Adobe (only one I'm still negative in) and Novo Nordisk but it's not much. I was panicking pretty bad initially but after watching them continue to fall since I think I made the right choice, sometimes you have no option but to cut your losses.

The account is basically 50/50 MSFT (cost basis of $398) and VTI (cost basis $350) now, with some left over in the other two names, I truly believe in the oral semaglutide Novo has and Adobe is just beaten down with the rest of SaaS, I don't see much wrong with either businesses. But other than these I'm done buying single stocks probably forever outside of the Mag6 (I don't count Tesla) as wheeling whichever one is beaten down/has the cheapest multiple usually seems like a safe easy way to make money and then rinse and repeat, considering those are the stocks mainly holding up the S&P anyway. I guess I already know the answer but for someone like me it seems index funds are the obvious choice for long term growth. Even if I were to beat it the stress it was putting me under was getting to a point that it was ruining me as a person. I wish I started index investing sooner especially during the 2022 dip although I'm young and didn't really have a ton of money back then anyways.

There were a few names like MU, GOOG, INTC, etc... that had I held onto longer I would've almost doubled the S&P performance but that's my (and I feel probably most other traders) fatal flaw is that in order to really outperform its all about timing. And as the old saying goes time in beats timing the market pretty much always. The emotional part seemed to be my issue more than the analytical part and picking the right names because for the most part I was but I was always selling right before they ran up huge. With indexes there isn't really that worry of needing to enter and exit at the right time I guess.

Idk what I'm looking for in terms of advice because I think I already got it sorted out, I'm just sharing my story as it was a valuable lesson for me and seeing just how much money I had traded in that time to make essentially no gains was astounding to actually look at. It made me realize that I could've lost so much more than just opportunity cost or probably actually went into the red had I kept going.

My advice to anyone who doesn't really know what they're doing but thinks they can beat the market, even if you think you do, is to just index and chill, maybe play around with 10-20% of your account but going all out on single names rarely pays off, no matter how many people on Reddit claim to have become overnight millionaires. If the biggest brightest minds on Wall Street can't do it odds are you can't either. I'm willing to bet there's a lot more people like me you just don't see them talk about it or post about it online due to embarrassment.

I've been following this LETF since it bottomed out in 2022 but never actually bought any because I'm risk averse. However, liberation day seems like the most obvious buy in point for this one, I'm scratching my head at why I didn't just throw $10k in at least, seeing that would be an over $150k gain on so little money. If I put $30-40k in I wouldn't have to work anymore.

It seems like it was kind of a no brainer that a semiconductor boom would follow with the AI boom. I know the saying is hindsight is 20/20 but I remember seeing it hit these low levels back in 2022 and when it hit them again a little over a year ago I knew that was probably a good entry point, but for some reason couldn't get myself to do it.

But I keep telling myself I would've sold probably when it hit $40-50 anyways. Did I miss out? No way am I buying in now but I'm unsure if it will ever get that low again and it hurts to think about how I passed up what could have been very early retirement. I can't get the idea out of my head really.

Is now the time to start buying SOXS?

I already own some MSFT (bought 100 shares just under $400), have ADBE at an avg cost of $272. But I'm looking to add more software specifically sticky legacy companies that are hard to replace overnight like everyone seems to think is going to happen.

SAP, INTU, and CRM have my attention, more so the first two though as I don't really see why enterprises would want to replace them or if they even can efficiently.

I would have to sell a few holdings to make room but I'm thinking it could be worth it. I can sell my UNH shares that are up 50% and my LULU shares that are down 32% and effectively break even there between the two. I just am hesitant as I actually do think LULU can come back, it's starting to get priced as if it's going out of business, but it doesn't seem to stop going lower. UNH I really think has almost topped out, even bullish projections don't have it going much higher and I feel I should take my easy win and run. And then roll it all over into the names I mentioned and/or probably more MSFT.

I have some NVO I'm looking to possibly dump, MELI as well. I would be taking a slight loss on those as well but the opportunity cost of not going all in on good tech based names that aren't overinflated chip and memory manufacturers is getting to me, the headaches are starting to make these seem not worth my time and energy, especially when so much of SaaS seems to be on sale.

Anyone else looking to do a similar move? I'm pretty bearish on the chip and memory stocks as they seem overvalued now.