u/IdratherBhiking1

You know how these work

Edit: I should have started with- if you invest in crypto, haven’t sold yet, and think your crypto isn’t dead….

(Edit: you know how many down votes I got sharing a thesis on RKLB when trading below 4.50? Same when i bought OXY below 44$ and sold for over 35%, same with target under 90, sold above 115. HIVE AT 2.50 sold above 4.50. Getting downvoted is actually a qualitative indicator at this point)

It’s this simple.

Decide if you believe in the future of any investment.
Hopefully you do this before you enter.

Seems like not everyone does this.

So do it now. Decide if you see a future. Make up your mind. What other’s say can’t change it. They can share ideas that you need to assess and research, but don’t just listen to the noise. You will get lost in other people’s confusion and doubt.

I believe a few specific cryptocurrencies will be much higher someday. I do not know or care when. I also imagined price going down by 75%. I decided I would buy.

I decided to buy back in below ——. After selling with over 3x profit, I bought back in at ——, add, and dca no matter what price does.

Tank it. I want more cheaper.

I can sit on paper losses until Ia few minutes before I die. I would sell then and give the cash to someone I love or give them the asset.

When I bought in, I saw the money as gone. I also bought in with 100% profit.

If you bought higher, lower prices should seem like a discount or a sale.

I like lower prices so I buy more when I can.

Buy into weakness if you believe in the future of any investment.

If you are questioning the future, do more and extensive research. Look into the sources of your doubts.

If you still lack unshakable conviction, set a stop loss and stick to it or just sell and preserve capital.

It’s better to do all of this before you enter any investment, not after or when price is going down.

It’s almost a given that when RSI on the daily hits 70 and above, price will retrace and test support.

When weekly hits 70, price retraces 99% of the time unless there is major news or developments.

That happened here.

Buying back in now for 1$ less than when I sold and will buy as low as it goes.

Dca’ing at low end of trading ranges.

Don’t get me wrong, I still see a 5 bil market cap and still a buyer.

like to be transparent. Hive has grown to over 68% of my portfolio as it just under doubled from when I bought in.

I do not let profit bleed away.

I sold enough to capture 10k $ + profit and my original investment. It’s a lesson I learned early with small money. Taking profit when you can builds wealth.

I did it because I saw it as smart. I still have 5000 shares and am buying back the shares I sold for a cheaper price.

Momentum has died and earnings wasn’t as brilliant as it needed to be.

In my Roth, not taxed. In my cash account will pay short term capital gains.

Buying more in my Roth account.

Moved into a 50% cash position…. I don’t like what I see in the market right now.

Moved some capital into high yield dividend paying assets, and some beaten down divy payers…. Moved some capital into a home builder with a book value of 1, and price to sales of 1. The market will rotate there eventually and that also pays a divy…

Still a HIVE holder, just took all risk off the table.

I keep thinking about the Dell partnership….only 15 mil contract per year for two years right now, but they are partners. That could get bigger. I notice no one really talking about
the partnership.

There might be something special there… Maybe not.

$Dell Technologies 100$ price increase after earnings displayed AI growth / focus that wasn’t expected. The 6 billion military contract….

Not saying HIVE is going to be huge part of Dell’s data center / ai compute pipeline, but is a part and I think that could lead to a very bright future for HIVE….

Maybe not, but there might be something there.

Find out in less than 24 hours…

I have never seen a company move earnings up to report bad news….

Have you?

I have some ideas about what will be announced….

Funding for the 3.5 bil data center in Toronto…
Possible that the Canadian gov is partially funding for sovereign AI?

Expecting rev beat and eps?

Trying to keep the hopium to a minimum….

Just don’t think it’s hopium….

Valuation is off. It’s just wrong.

Just my opinion.

Don’t bother saying valuation is correct because that is what it is…. I know that. I did my own calculations and I think the basic value of assets will be adjusted dramatically.

That’s the main part of entering the investment.

Asset values are simply off…
It was wrong before Q3 and is still wrong.
Price to book even now at 1.9 p/b is based on infrastructure valued as mining hardware…

Data center margins are double and valued that way. That hasn’t been a part of the valuation….

(Also, since Q3) Added infrastructure- new NVDA hardware. Upgrading fiber. Added property / land and physical buildings.

Signed 3 new contracts since Q3. Price didn’t move.

12$ a share sounds like nonsense to most.
I see it as a matter of revaluation.

Institutional investment increasing from historical ath.

I hope for a dip. Freed up capital today to catch a test of 3.65 support (that support level is massive).

We will see.

You do you and hope you make bank.

Valuation and institutional Investment (just the foundation)

Value of assets minus liabilities and debt is book value.

(I think) Hive is not valued as a data center company, only as a smaller bitcoin miner.

Current book value of 1.673 = 9.69 mil free float market cap is based on now outdated Q3 valuation (plus- Expansion costs of Grand Falls data center pulled forward in lot Q3 earnings report - Land purchase and portion of construction).

Since Q3….

30 mil in NVDA h100 and h200 gpu clusters secured and contracted. Projected to be fully operational in 2-8 months.

3 data center contracts signed for 2 years respectively.

Dell- 15 mil per year for 2 years (total 30 mil).
AMC Robotics same terms.
Columbia University- terms undisclosed.

Not anticipated when I entered….

3.5 billion Toronto data center expansion announcement (why many of you are here) (projected operational in 2027)

Basically- value of assets will be 4.5 billion in 2027 (if HIVE can execute on self determined timeline).

4x + asset value not calculating debt.

Not even really worried about dilution at this point.

2. Institutional Investment at highest level in company history (go to Fintel and see for yourself). Net buying by 9-1.

SEC form 13’s filed and reported prior to data center announcement. In last 3 weeks.

Invesco reported 5.2% ownership stake. No position previously reported as far as I could tell and I look at the SEC website and read the official forms (not based on AI).

Citadel reported at least 0.7 percent increase from 4.5 to 5.2%. That is clear….

Form 13 includes multiple disclosures that appears to indicate increases in 2 other distinct entities under the Citadel umbrella. Not speculating on it as I do not know exactly what is reported….

I cannot verify this last one. I have not seen the official SEC form 13 as of 1:25am est 5/22/26. I will edit when I verify it….

1.3% ownership stake by situational awareness LP.
Hedge fund run by Leopoldo Archenerbrenner- a former OpenAi “superalignment” researcher.

Simple enough.

I’m not selling a single share or January 27 2.50 strike call option until 12$.

At 12-15$ I will sell 2000 of 11000+ shares.

You do you.

Institutional money is what matters.
Us retail investors are along for the ride.

Not trying to sell you on it. I don’t tell even try to influence a buy or sell to my closest friends anymore.

I listened to a friend and sold 1/10 my RKLB position at 10$.

Listing to him cost me $58,400. I sold. I listened to his “rational / logical reasoning”. I own it. On me.

One friend listened to my thesis and bought 100 shares. Today even being up 50%, he tells me 12$ is ridiculous.

Please, find a flaw. Please tell me I’m wrong with some reasoning. I will be sincerely grateful.

I am pretty sure I have already considered it and am already watching for it.

I’m just presenting the 2 most basic aspects of my thesis.

Dca’d back in after taking profit on the rip to 7+. Below 2.50 average on just under 11000 shares.

Q4 earnings call is going to be interesting (end of June).

Best case scenario…

Canadian Government offers 0-small number interest loan and tax breaks to establish sovereign Ai.

If HIVE can create a service rather than just selling compute, this could be extra special…

So HIVE….

Posted this a while back…

price to book 1.2 at share price of 2.82, free float market cap of 7.10 mil. Price to sales of 2.67 (based on Q3 earnings).

My thesis….

Current valuation is based on Bitcoin mining side of operations. current valuation not been adjusted to reflect higher margin data center transition and Grand Falls data center expansion / development.

A large portion of the costs of the Tier III+ expansion were realized / reported in Q3 Earnings.

NVDA platinum partner with priority access to newest hardware. Relationship includes something I need to explore but referred to as “cloud provider”

General company info…

(Smaller) Ai data center company transitioning from a. pure bitcoin miner. Cost to mine per coin estimated to be 35k $ achieved through strategic location of mining / data center locations utilizing hydroelectric power.

3 currently operational data centers and expanding Grand Falls facility to Tier III+.

(A percentage of) Grand falls Expansion cost pulled forward into Q3.

Recently closed institutional offering upsized from 75 mil to 115mil due to over subscription / institutional interest. Company utilizing capped call options to reduce dilution.

Funding used for purchase of NVDA hardware and upgrade data center infrastructure and operations.

Ex- secured 30 mil H100 and H200 NVDA GPU clusters, upgradeS to fiber at cost of 3 mil announced last week.

Net cash balance sheet, exceptionally low debt.

Based on my calculations…

3-4 quarters of cash burn without calculating in increased revenue (new contracts extend runway).

There is a path to profitability before an additional capital raise would be needed, but it is tight…

That is the biggest risk…. Watching cash / balance sheet closely. Will be listening in on 2026 Q4 earnings call (late June).

3 new contracts since announced since Q3 earnings.

Dell and AMC Robotics each signed 2 year contracts for 30 mil (15 mil per year). Contract with Columbia university with undisclosed terms.

Increasing institutional ownership. Invesco reported new ownership stake of 5.2% on form 13g May 6.

Notable / significant dilution…

65% dilution of share holders between 2o24-2026. (Now priced in).

Longer term retail investors are extremely bitter and vocal on Reddit. It’s understandable considering the dilution….

I have a much different experience with the company…

Having entered at 1.75 before a massive rip to 7$ +…. Sold at 5.80 and 6.80….

Much of my investment is profit….

I see a low end / reasonable valuation of 1.5 billion when Grand Falls expansion is priced in. Any new contracts that solidify cash flow could lead to valuation that is even 1/4 of competition in the data center asset class….

Do not listen to me.

To make this investment, you must be willing to watch share price go to 1.80 or below and not panic sell.

This is the definition of high risk and I can do it because I have done my research and am watching this like a hawk….

Looks like Hive is no longer a secret.

If you want to read it for yourself, here is a link to the full text.

For the TLDR’ers….

This video was to the point and shared the implications for XRP.

This is a link to a YouTube video.

https://youtu.be/ZWXbUcyQT-s?si=lqaWNwF7vjRuptCO

The point is…

If you can spend XRP like any fiat currency for goods (like you can on Rakuten Pay) then the value of the limited supply crypto currency could increase in value (and also increase relative to any unlimited supply fiat used to buy XRP).

If you can spend XRP at a grocery store (just another market place) and it’s auto converted into the local fiat, like paying with my credit card that doesn’t charge a foreign transaction fee….

This is the most bullish example I can think of…. It simply cannot happen…. If it does…. I cannot imagine….

If Ripple can provide a service to other “market places” like Amazon (very similar to Rakuten) such as cheaper worldwide transaction / conversion fees) and Amazon gives the “option” to spend XRP….

I spend my XRP on Amazon for whatever product from \_\_ company and (just like my credit cards that don’t charge me for the conversion) the company gets paid in fiat or whatever currency the choose (crypto or fiat)….

That is what I think Ripple is doing… providing a transaction service cheaper than Swift and by adopting the service, the company allows the “option” to pay in XRP….

Provide a financial service at lower cost to “marketplaces” for just onboarding onto the XRPL ledger. The company only has to allow the option to spend XRP as.local fiat….

Companies get the same product for fractions of the cost and transactions are faster….

Better product. Cheaper price. More market places adopt Ripple’s financial services, more option to spend.XRP….

Why have I not heard this talked about? I cannot be right about this.

Regardless…

That’s why I’m just adding when price tests the low end of the trading range….

Widespread adoption = ability to spend everywhere.

Of course must be secure and no more can be created ever.

You must be able to buy goods with the crypto currency. Not just at certain places, but everywhere.

It would be like a credit card that doesn’t charge foreign transaction fees…

I only use 2 credit cards when I travel. The ones that alllow me to swipe my card everywhere and it is auto paid in the local fiat currency… not foreign transaction fee, no conversion fee….

Rakuten pay adoption and providing the “option” to spend XRP like fiat shows me what Ripple is doing…

It is a long shot and I cannot be the only one who thinks about it like this. Literally no one is saying this, so I have to be wrong.

Who tf knows…

I can wait. Invested with house money. Do not need the money to pay bills or a mortgage..