Just a basic timeline

Just some baseline level research.

Images summarize the operations and timeline for data center buildout.

Please find a crack and point it out. Ask anything. Im not in love with the stock. I just cant find a reason why Im able to buy a sovereign ai provider with a signed gov contract for 3.26 a share (a national security contractor).

I bought in early and took profit already. Building back into a position now.

Hive investment thesis….

TLDR- Im buying the crap out of HIVE. Undervalued data center / sovereign ai provider. Seems to be filling a gap (about 3$ to fill) and is trading at a book value of around 1.5. P/S of about 3. Under 1 bil FF market cap. Valuation metrics are out of date (due to contracts and accumulation of hardware / nvda gpu clusters / land and infrastructure).

DD. I’ve researched the 💩 out of HIVE.

\*\*\*HIVE Digital Technologies\*\*\*

I’ll share the bear cases first. When I researched the bear cases, i resolve every single one as actually positive.

1. Dilution. Biggest concern for a growth company.

Just closed an institutional offering originally 100mil, upsized to 130 mil $ due to over subscription. Proceeds for expansion / accumulation of NVDA hardware (NVDA platinum partner with priority access to hardware).

Institutional investment is positive and the structure of the offering is genius. Second institutional offering same structure (closed in April).

Notes due 2031 and Dilution only occurs if price is over +8.53 (notes can be exercised early if price is above 8.53 for 20 consecutive trading days).

0% interest on capital in a high interest macro environment. Then, Hive has purchased capped call options to mitigate dilution. Notes called back can be paid with cash value or shares. Capped call options ensure capital to pay out or buy back shares. Dilution mitigated enough for me.

The ATM offering open since November 2025 is not share based. It is a dollar value based offering. 215 million $ left to sell.

Hive sold shares on a pop to 7+$, but so did I. They have only sold 85m $. If they needed money for operations, that would be gone.

This is a safety net and selling at the right time. Even if HIVE ever dollar of that offering, that would be less that 60 million shares and would be absorbed in less than 3 days (based on average daily volume) and not impact share price one bit.

Google just sold shares to fund ai expansion. Different, but same.

I check for selling on a regular basis. It’s information you can find in a minute or two.

2. Execution delays. If hardware cannot be delivered, revenue growth will be delayed.

Revenue is growing by well over 100% both yoy and quarter to quarter.

Platinum partnership with NVDA means they get their compute power when it’s available.

Not a concern.

3. Not a USA operator and smaller in scale compared to the largest companies in the world in the ai / data center asset class.

HIVE has a niche in the data center asset class. Sovereign Ai is a matter of national security. Data collected cannot leave the borders of a country.

Not a stretch- they are already a defense contractor with Canada. I think Sweden and Paraguay are next.

They have established infrastructure in Sweden, Canada, and Paraguay. Letter of intent with Sweden, not formal confirmation, but it’s coming.

We have already seen the push back on data centers in the US. No one wants a data center in their town because it drives up electricity cost. The USA will also have strict regulations that delay operation.

Resolved.

4. Restricted Share Units and insider selling.

Hive is executing and the leadership should get paid.

I think Peter Beck sold shares at 12$ to set up something like retirement fund. People were freaking out and I watched a few dollars peal off before price continued upward.

The RSUs… they are in press releases now (at a low) and mature date is like getting insider information only it’s legal and disclosed to everyone... If you take 2 minutes, you can see when the shares mature. That is kinda telling you when you might want to take profit on some of your position.

Any other bear cases you can think of will be dissolved next.

\*\*\*HIVE Bull Case\*\*\*

1. Valuation and financials. NET CASH BALANCE SHEET AND EXCEPTIONALLY LOW DEBT

Book value of 1 5. Prices to sales of -3. Every single other company in the asset class is trading at a premium. HIVE is trading at just above “fair value”.

Net cash balance sheet (unmatched low debt load) and trading at just over book value right now. Revenue is increasing dramatically and organically. Still valued as a bitcoin miner (historically demands lower multiple). Valuation metrics are based on the past quarterly report that is already outdated (as they have signed contracts and acquired gpu’s, land and other infrastructure (search HIVE Boden, Sweden).

\adjusted ebita is positive. Turning a profit if you remove company determined aggressive 2 year depreciation calculations on hardware. Saving money on taxes.

2. Niche in the data center market. Sovereign AI is a matter of national security and Hive has signed one contract with Canada. Positioned for contracts with Sweden and Paraguay.

Company power and water management.exceeds requirements for government contracts established by the Canadian government -Canadian Sovereign Ai Compute Startegy and exceeds standards outlined by the Canadian Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute.

Massive hyper scalers in the US cannot provide sovereign AI because they have no infrastructure there and no plans for it.

3. Achieving exceptional margins (both for mining and data center operations)Hive has already established / contracted energy sources in all locations. Competitors are scrambling to secure energy and HIVE has already secured their sources.
   Utilizes cheaper renewable energy. Established in Paraguay powered by the Utaipu damn.

Boden, Sweden is in the arctic circle and sourced from Nuclear and hydroelectric power.

4. Growth and funding for growth displays shareholder consideration of dilution. Compared to a similar company trading at over 7x book value, hive is increasing revenue by well over 100% yoy, while that competitor is decreasing and taking a loss.

Raw assets and infrastructure increasing constantly and it’s all funded. Cash burn rate is no longer a drain.

5. Institutional investment is increasing and at an ATH.
   Finding a company as before institutional investment enters can be life changing.
   Investing in RKLB before even Cathy dropped some massive millions on it…. Then the floodgates opened up. That investment left me not worrying about money (even though I sold early and only took just under six figures profit).

I’m a public high school teacher for 16 years now and live a humble but happy life. I want a retirement home with an infinity pool overlooking the Mediterranean. It’s not a pipe dream any more.

I payed cash for a 10.000 $ engagement ring and wondered if I should be spending more… I pay off my fiancé’s credit cards without blinking an eye. 7000$ care repairs are annoying, but money is just a thing I have now.

Buffet said (in my words)- if you get on the train to money town even one stop before big money does, that makes all the difference

6. It’s a secret. There are 2500 (edit: somehow 2500 new people found my sub today so 5000 now) max people on Reddit paying attention to HIVE (the number is growing, but doesn’t matter until it become 10-15k from 2500). Meanwhile the company is a defense contractor for Canadian Ai.

I saved the best for those who actually read a full post.

7. Formally announced and making substantial progress on a 2.55 billion $ usd data center in Toronto. Land purchased. A 25 acre facility, to house 100,000 NVDA GPUs in the Ontario-Waterloo innovation corridor and Hive has finalized connection milestones to guarantee energy supply.

Set to be operational by 2nd half of 2027. That takes book value over 3.6billion- with no premium / hype value price in that takes share price -/+ 3.9x (12.84 a share) by mid 2027 with a book value of 1.

I’m sharing this on Friday July 3, 2026. Shares of HIVE are trading at 3.26.

Happy 4th of July!

I genuinely hope you get your Lambo.

I’ll drive my 2002 Maxima with 76.000 miles till I retire in 8 years or less. I have to be gentle on the accelerator or I peel out at stoplights.

I just want an infinity pool overlooking the Med and a frozen margarita machine to numb the pain of a slow death from skin cancer.

You do you.

Not investment advice. Not a professional.

This stock is volatile and if you enter you must have solid conviction. It way go down to 2.50. It may go lower. I have already taken profit and I share that after I do.

“My success over the years wasn’t a result of buying the companies everyone knew about…

It was a result of finding those special companies before everyone started investing in them”

Paraphrasing Warren Buffet’s response in an interview from some years back.

The quote by Buffet says- look for the companies that will succeed and invest in them before everyone else does….

That’s what i try to do in the market. It’s how i like to operate. Working out well and getting good at it.

If you don’t care about your money enough to read the whole post, don’t comment. This post is a gift. If you don’t see that after reading, just ask I’ll ELI5 for ya.

Not pumping a bag. I already took +20k $ usd profit on -13000 shares with a 2.50 average selling above 4.50.
I’m rebuilding a position on profit and more at cheaper prices. I added screen shots so there is no doubt

TLDR- Im buying the 💩 out of HIVE. Undervalued data center / sovereign ai provider. Seems to be filling a gap (about 3$ to fill) and is trading at a book value of around 1.5. P/S of about 3. Under 1 bil FF market cap. Valuation metrics are out of date (due to contracts and accumulation of hardware / nvda gpu clusters / land and infrastructure).

I posted about RKLB back when it was trading under 4.50. The dominant reddit sentiment said to trade it and sell at pops to 6, 8, 12, 16, 20…. Reddit retail saying I’m wrong is confirmation that I’m right. Then after price runs up 200% that stock pick is all over the place. After it goes up 1200% even Cramer will say it’s a buy.

Those 4666 shares did well even though i took profit way too early. I leaned a 400,000$ lesson on that. holding at least half of my shares here when price hits 25$.

Don’t believe me? It’s in my post history. It’s not hidden. Not a brag. I say it to get your attention. HIVE is next. Not saying it’s going to 150$ though. I’ll take 25-50$ a share in a year or two.

Also, I do not care if you or everyone on reddit buys HIVE. Institutional investment leads to massive growth. It’s not us small money retail investors…. Not a pump and dump.

DD. I’ve researched the 💩 out of HIVE.

Not everything, but fairly in depth DD.

if you want more DD, you can find it in my history or on the HIVE subs (official Hive, and Hive digital technology).

***HIVE Digital Technologies***

I’ll share the bear cases first. When I researched the bear cases, i resolve every single one as actually positive.

1. Dilution. Biggest concern for a growth company.

First…. You did see that Google just sold shares to raise capital for data center expansion. It’s ok.

Just closed an institutional offering originally 100mil, upsized to 130 mil $ due to over subscription. Proceeds for expansion / accumulation of NVDA hardware (NVDA platinum partner with priority access to hardware).

Institutional investment is positive and the structure of the offering is genius. Second institutional offering same structure (closed in April).

Notes due 2031 and Dilution only occurs if price is over +8.53 (notes can be exercised early if price is above 8.53 for 20 consecutive trading days).

0% interest on capital in a high interest macro environment. Then, Hive has purchased capped call options to mitigate dilution. Notes called back can be paid with cash value or shares. Capped call options ensure capital to pay out or buy back shares. Dilution mitigated enough for me.

The ATM offering open since November 2025 is not share based. It is a dollar value based offering. 215 million $ left to sell.

Hive sold shares on a pop to 7+$, but so did I. They have only sold 85m $. If they needed money for operations, that would be gone.

This is a safety net and selling at the right time. Even if HIVE ever dollar of that offering, that would be less that 60 million shares and would be absorbed in less than 3 days (based on average daily volume) and not impact share price one bit.

I check for selling on a regular basis. It’s information you can find in a minute or two.

2. Execution delays. If hardware cannot be delivered, revenue growth will be delayed.

Revenue is growing by well over 100% both yoy and quarter to quarter.

Platinum partnership with NVDA means they get their compute power when it’s available.

Not a concern.

3. Not a USA operator and smaller in scale compared to the largest companies in the world in the ai / data center asset class.

HIVE has a niche in the data center asset class. Sovereign Ai is a matter of national security. Data collected cannot leave the borders of a country.

Not a stretch- they are already a defense contractor with Canada. I think Sweden and Paraguay are next.

They have established infrastructure in Sweden, Canada, and Paraguay. Letter of intent with Sweden, not formal confirmation, but it’s coming.

We have already seen the push back on data centers in the US. No one wants a data center in their town because it drives up electricity cost. The USA will also have strict regulations that delay operation.

Resolved.

Edit to add one
4. Restricted Share Units and insider selling.

Hive is executing and the leadership should get paid.

I think Peter Beck sold shares at 12$ to set up something like retirement fund. People were freaking out and I watched a few dollars peal off before price continued upward.

The RSUs… they are in press releases now (at a low) and mature date is like getting insider information only it’s legal and disclosed to everyone... If you take 2 minutes, you can see when the shares mature. That is kinda telling you when you might want to take profit on some of your position.

Any other bear cases you can think of will be dissolved next.

***HIVE Bull Case***

1. Valuation and financials. NET CASH BALANCE SHEET AND EXCEPTIONALLY LOW DEBT. Even Google did a share offering to fund AI expansion.

Book value of 1 5. Prices to sales of -3. Every single other company in the asset class is trading at a premium. HIVE is trading at just above “fair value”.

Net cash balance sheet (unmatched low debt load) and trading at just over book value right now. Revenue is increasing dramatically and organically. Still valued as a bitcoin miner (historically demands lower multiple). Valuation metrics are based on the past quarterly report that is already outdated (as they have signed contracts and acquired gpu’s, land and other infrastructure (search HIVE Boden, Sweden).

\*adjusted ebita is positive. Turning a profit if you remove company determined aggressive 2 year depreciation calculations on hardware. Saving money on taxes.

2. Niche in the data center market. Sovereign AI is a matter of national security and Hive has signed one contract with Canada. Positioned for contracts with Sweden and Paraguay.

Company power and water management.exceeds requirements for government contracts established by the Canadian governement. Canadian Sovereign Ai Compute Startegy and exceeds standards outlined by the Canadian Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute.

Massive hyper scalers in the US cannot provide sovereign AI because they have no infrastructure there and no plans for it.

3. Achieving exceptional margins (both for mining and data center operations)Hive has already established / contracted energy sources in all locations. Competitors are scrambling to secure energy and HIVE has already secured their sources.
   Utilizes cheaper renewable energy. Established in Paraguay powered by the Utaipu damn. (

Boden, Sweden is in the arctic circle and sourced from Nuclear and hydroelectric power.

4. Growth and funding for growth displays shareholder consideration of dilution. Compared to a similar company trading at over 7x book value, hive is increasing revenue by well
   Over 100% yoy, while that competitor is decreasing and taking a loss.

Raw assets and infrastructure increasing constantly and it’s all funded. Cash burn rate is no longer a drain.

5. Institutional investment is increasing and at an ATH.
   Finding a company as before institutional investment enters can be life changing.
   Investing in RKLB before even Cathy dropped some massive millions on it…. Then the floodgates opened up. That investment left me not worrying about money (even though I sold early and only took just under six figures profit).

I’m a mf-ing high school teacher for 16 years now and live a humble life. Still do. I want a retirement home with an infinity pool overlooking the Mediterranean. It’s not a pipe dream any more.

I payed cash for a 10.000 $ engagement ring and wondered if I should be spending more… I pay off my fiancé’s credit cards without blinking an eye. 7000$ care repairs are annoying, but money is just a thing I have now.

Buffet said (in my words)- if you get on the train to money town even one stop before big money does, that makes all the difference.

6. It’s a mf’ing secret. There are 2500 max people on Reddit paying attention to HIVE (the number is growing, but doesn’t matter until it become 10-15k from 2500). Meanwhile the company is a defense contractor for Canadian Ai.

I saved the best for those who actually read a full post.

7. Formally announced and making substantial progress on a 2.55 billion $ usd data center in Toronto. Land purchased. A 25 acre facility, to house 100,000 NVDA GPUs in the Ontario-Waterloo innovation corridor and Hive has finalized connection milestones to guarantee energy supply.

Set to be operational by 2nd half of 2027. That takes book value over 3.6billion- with no premium / hype value price in that takes share price -/+ 3.9x (12.84 a share) by mid 2027 with a book value of 1.

I’m sharing this on Friday July 3, 2026. Shares of HIVE are trading at 3.26.

Happy 4th of July mf’rs!

I genuinely hope you get your Lambo.

I’ll drive my 2002 Maxima with 76.000 miles till I retire in 8 years or less. I have to be gentle on the accelerator or I peel out at stoplights.

I just want an infinity pool overlooking the Med and a frozen margarita machine to numb the pain of a slow death from skin cancer.

You do you.

I like to consider the possibilities / worst case scenarios when investing in any company. It helps to think about the move before it happens. Being prepared keeps you from making emotional decisions / panic selling.

I encourage you to ask yourself now, how would you feel if price continues downward to 3$?

We are testing support right now (at the bottom of a trading range). Short interest is increasing (currently between 16 and 18% depending on the source). That’s an increase of 6-8% since the latest institutional offering. This is possible.

A minute ago, I asked myself what I would do / how I would feel if share price breaks 3.50 (fairly substantial support level). A break of 3.50 support leaves 3.00 as the next substantial level of support.

This is possible. I won’t be surprised or taken off guard. I won’t react, I already made up my mind…

I would buy more and see it as a gift.

I also added 650 shares between 3.46 and 3.52 today..

Would not be worried about being in the red by about 8k$ on paper. I would add and keep adding….

I have unshakable conviction on this investment. I have been through it all before… rocket lab dropped from 4.50 to 3.86 in a couple days way back when and people weee freaking out. Many sold out at what turned out to be a hard bottom.

That 64 cent move seemed huge at the time.

When Hive share price ran above 5$ for a hot minute, I was over 100% up. I asked myself how would I feel if price went down to 3.50 or 3$ and I watched 28,000$ usd in profit slowly bleed away. Ii decided to sell and happy I did.

Worked out this time. Buying back at a discount.

Think about it. Decide now, because it could happen.

The image displays support and resistance lines I drew. They are not exact, but fairly accurate…

It seems too simple. Hive trades at a discount to its peers in the asset class. Pristine net-cash sheet with an unmatched low level of debt (compared to any company).

I expect next quarter to report positive eps next quarter.

At the share price of 3.76 Hive is trading at a book value of 1.8 and a free float market cap of 999.7 million dollar market cap.

Revenue is increasing by over 100% each quarter yoy.

Acquiring hard assets (land and physical buildings, and gpu processing power) increases intrinsic value.

Utilizing notably low cost green energy creates unmatched margins.

Signed a contract with the Canadian since last quarterly report; 3 year 200 mill for sovereign ai compute (65 mil per year in new HPC revenue). That will get priced in after next earnings.

If dilution is your concern, you can calculate the impact.

From the ATM offering open since November 2025, HIVE can sell a total of 214mil $ worth of shares. At 3.67 that would be 54 mil shares. That volume would be absorbed in less than 2 days and not impact price at all.

Has already been priced in (institutions know about the offering and are acquiring shares).

The institutional offerings are a positive. For the shares to have a dilutive effect, price must be above 8.76 a share. At this price and below, dilution is 0% due to the capped calls purchased by Hive.

Position
After selling out of a 13,000 share position with below 2.50 average in the high 4$range, bought back into 7200 shares with a low 4$ average.

I add whenever I have spare cash.

Just like the last time. (April)

Retail has zero understanding of the institutional offering and panic sells. Price drops and this happens…

Large buys….

I added below 4$.

Institutional investment is the most important driver of increasing share prices….

Just block the idiots crying about offerings.
They have no idea what they are doing.

Buy more when you can afford to.

Have a relaxing weekend

I’m sure some of you are a little shook right now….

We want institutional ownership. It is one of, if not the most important factors to longer term growth in share price.

This is the second institutional offering.

Last one closed back in April. Retail panic sold on the news and price dipped about 10% in a day. The very next day, share price rebounded. I’ve the follow 2 months, share price increased by about 80-100%.

The structure of these offerings is unique. The company uses a portion of the offering proceeds to buy capped calls. Maintains a debt free balance sheet while eliminating dilution and provides capital for expansion.

Company made just under 100 mil on the capped call options in addition to the 100 mil capital raised by the offering.

Not saying it’s going to run 100% over the next 2 months.

The structure of the offering adds institutional ownership, provides capital for expansion, and limits dilution.

If you don’t believe me, have AI explain it.

Or panic sell me your shares at a lovely discount.

Here is a chart that has the date and share price of the first offering noted in blue.

I took profit above 4.70 (had 13000 shares with a 2.50 average and have bought back in at a discount.
.