u/Individual-Toe-6306

In September, Cavan Sullivan had 9 goal contributions in 4 MLS appearances: 4 goals and 5 assists. However, the average MLS midfielder obviously does not produce 2.25 goal contributions per game.

If you adjust Sullivan's goal contributions down to around 0.45 per game, which is still above league average, he goes from 9 goal contributions to only 1.8.

I'll be generous and give him 2.

Now, let's adjust his assists.

Sullivan had 5 assists in those four September games, including 3 against FC Cincinnati. Three assists in one game is clearly an outlier. If we remove that performance and adjust his assist rate to a more sustainable level, he goes from 5 assists to around 2.

Next, we have to account for the San Diego game.

Sullivan had 2 goals and 1 assist in a 5-0 win over San Diego FC. Obviously, averaging 3 goal contributions per game is completely unsustainable. If we adjust this performance to what an above-average MLS midfielder would normally produce, Sullivan probably finishes that game with 0 or 1 goal contribution instead of 3.

I'll be generous and give him 1.

We should also adjust the FC Cincinnati game. Philadelphia won 5-0 and Sullivan recorded 3 assists. The Union had an 18-1 advantage in shots, so this was obviously an unusually dominant team performance that inflated Sullivan's numbers.

We'll adjust his 3 assists to 1.

Then there's the Sporting Kansas City game.

Philadelphia went down 3-0 before scoring four unanswered goals, including Sullivan scoring during an eight-minute stretch in which Philadelphia scored four times. Coming back from 3-0 to win 4-3 is extremely rare and therefore shouldn't be used when projecting Sullivan's future production.

So we'll remove that goal.

He also scored against Montréal, Austin and the New York Red Bulls, but Sullivan scoring in three consecutive MLS games is obviously unsustainable for a midfielder. If we regress that to a more normal scoring rate, we'll turn those 3 goals into 1.

Now let's look at his overall hot streak.

Sullivan recorded a goal or assist in 8 consecutive MLS matches, the longest such streak by a teenager in league history.

However, the average MLS teenager does not record a goal contribution in 8 consecutive matches.

If we adjust his streak to the performance of a normal promising teenager, he probably records a goal contribution in about 3 of those 8 matches.

So his record-setting 8-game streak becomes a 3-game streak.

Now we have to account for Philadelphia's team performance.

Since the World Cup break, the Union have earned 32 points during a 12-match unbeaten streak, tied for the most points by an MLS club over a 12-game span. Sullivan started 11 of those matches.

Obviously, teams do not normally earn 32 points every 12 matches.

If we regress Philadelphia's record during this period toward that of an average MLS team, the Union would have approximately 17-19 points instead.

Therefore, a substantial portion of Sullivan's perceived impact disappears.

Now let's adjust September as a whole.

Sullivan's actual September:

• 4 goals
• 5 assists
• 9 goal contributions
• 4 appearances
• 2.25 goal contributions per appearance
• MLS Player of the Month

If we adjust his scoring and assisting rates to something more sustainable, his adjusted September becomes approximately:

• 1 goal
• 1 assist
• 2 goal contributions
• 4 appearances
• 0.50 goal contributions per appearance
• No Player of the Month

This puts him much closer to a merely good MLS attacking midfielder.

Finally, we have to address his USMNT performance.

Sullivan just became the youngest goalscorer in USMNT history by scoring against Mexico.

However, becoming the youngest goalscorer in USMNT history has happened exactly once to Cavan Sullivan, making it an obvious statistical outlier.

If we adjust his record-breaking goals to the average number of USMNT goals scored by a 17-year-old American midfielder, which is approximately zero, Sullivan's adjusted international goal total drops from 1 to 0.

Therefore, after adjusting his international production to a sustainable level, Cavan Sullivan is no longer the youngest goalscorer in USMNT history.

His final adjusted breakout:

Actual:

• 9 goal contributions in 4 September MLS matches
• 4 goals / 5 assists
• 8 consecutive MLS matches with a goal contribution
• 2 goals + 1 assist vs. San Diego
• 3 assists vs. Cincinnati
• Goal in a 4-3 comeback vs. Sporting KC
• Youngest MLS Player of the Month ever
• Youngest USMNT goalscorer ever

Adjusted:

• 2 goal contributions in 4 September matches
• 1 goal / 1 assist
• 3 matches with a goal contribution
• 1 goal contribution vs. San Diego
• 1 assist vs. Cincinnati
• 0 goals vs. Sporting KC
• No Player of the Month
• 0 USMNT goals

What does this tell us?

It tells us that Cavan Sullivan's perceived breakout is largely inflated by unsustainable, wildly outlier performances over the past two months.

When you adjust for the future by bringing down his outlier goals, assists, multi-assist games, multi-goal games, record-setting contribution streak, Philadelphia's record-setting form, Player of the Month award, and historic USMNT goal, he regresses heavily to a slightly above-average MLS midfielder.

People need to stop overreacting to the fact that he keeps playing incredibly well every single game.

Once you adjust all of the incredible performances out of his performances, he stops performing incredibly.