Path to Market examples for discussion purposes
I think commercialization is an important topic of discussion but I think there are very good reasons why it can't be discussed by the company yet as some of the methods of commercializing require external negotiation and revealing too much about plans can be counter-intuitive. For illustration and discussion purposes I will discuss 3 paths to market as possibilities.
- Direct production by QIMC - selling H2 direct to market or selling energy generated direct to market
- Indirect production by 3rd party - 3rd party drills and produces H2 and sells H2 or energy direct to market, QIMC receives a % of revenue (royalty) or some derivative such as MOU or JV, etc
- Sale of proven asset (land leases) - QIMC sells all or part of proven land area and 3rd party assumes all production, revenue, expenses, QIMC is paid up-front and potentially trailing % of revenue (typically smaller % than option 2 above)
Requirements and timeline differences for each (very limited sample of options for discussion)
QIMC to drill a production well, measure flow rate over time and sets up an off-take agreement (an agreement where an end-user or middleman agrees to purchase raw gas from the well, or purified pure H2 gas from wellsite after cleaning, or power such as for an AI data center) from this agreement we shareholders can extrapolate future revenue flows and value of the assets under our feet, etc, however this method has drawbacks such as the time and investment it takes to get many wells up and running and determining true costs and true revenue. This is the method most shareholders focus on but may not be the best for the company overall.
Setting up a JV with a 3rd party company to drill and produce wells while paying a royalty is an "easier" path to market for QIMC as a 3rd party assumes the costs of drilling and engineering work but it is also more challenging as each side wants to negotiate the best deal for themselves, these could include an AI data center client, an ammonia producer, a power generation company, a direct H2 distributor, etc. This is a challenge on many fronts because QIMC need to "prove" to the 3rd party that there will be enough H2 for their needs (which is what is happening with the shallow well district scale confirmation) because the 3rd party will need to invest time and capital to build out the system, this is also challenging for QIMC shareholders because the revenue (in form of % of H2 sold or used) is not collected until the infrastructure is in place, of course there will be chances to extrapolate future value but it is not as cut and dry as building out the system yourself, in addition QIMC also needs to keep the option of building it out themselves as a bargaining chip against a lowball royalty offer (you better accept a 5% royalty deal because there is no way you can build this yourself, the $17M cash goes a long way to maintain this bargaining chip).
Setting up a sale of the production asset (aka the land leases), this one is also difficult for QIMC and the 3rd party because large-scale natural H2 commercial production is a very new industry and neither side would want a bad deal, QIMC "knows" what potential they have, but they also know how long it will take to achieve 1) and 2) above. Securing a sale deal for an area such as Nova Scotia would allow them to pursue other areas (like ON, QC, MN) and have a massive capital influx that allows them to build out a second or third area using 1) or 2) method above. On the flip side you don't want to accept a low deal quicker especially since option 3) can also happen after 1) or 2) are already operating. The problem for shareholders with 3) is there will likely not be any notice or gradual increase it literally could be one day we are trading normally assuming they are building out an area and then a press release drops that XYZ company has made an offer of the entire area play and the market would re-rate very quickly to catch up on the value.
In my opinion they are working on proving out the areas first to get the best deal for option 2) or 3) while still planning for an advanced campaign of option 1) but ensuring they don't negotiate against themselves. Unfortunately for us shareholders we have to be patient and understand that with at least 3 major routes to future value sometimes not having a detailed plan presented to the market can actually benefit us in the long run. Choose the option that you would prefer and try to see how the progress is beneficial for that option (and also for the other options) and in any scenario you should be very pleased with where we are and where we are heading. Remember that as we progress and more companies start analyzing our value (for a possible 2 or 3 scenario) the market will start to catch on because word of mouth spreads, and then while looking at scenarios remember there is always a potential BIDDING WAR!!!!