u/Kitchen_Helicopter70

How about we all put 1000$ on the line right now and manifest this double bottom?
Did my part lol

https://preview.redd.it/z07xz35cd0dh1.png?width=675&format=png&auto=webp&s=31d336ea8f4247cd855ce83096b0b3fc95cb64bd

Last quarter, revenue was $7,8M up 64% from $4.76M in the prior quarter
Cost of goods sold was $7,01M producing a GAAP gross margin of $0.7M, the company’s first positive gross margin.

Excluding $1.0M of depreciation and $0.3M of stock-based compensation embedded in COGS, the cash cost of goods sold was $5.8M and the cash (adjusted) gross margin was $2.0M

Here's the trend below:

https://preview.redd.it/hmjcmaplpl8h1.png?width=1198&format=png&auto=webp&s=c545badf6baca4b2495693d36684ce722240abfe

​Total operating expense was $35.1M, of which general & administrative was $29.8M but $27.6M of that was stock-based compensation expense (per the statement of stockholders’ equity). So the loss on the income statement is dominated by this one non-cash line.

R&D was $4.6M and exploration $0.7M.

The resulting GAAP net loss was $33.8M (or −$0.26 per share)

Basically we're losing around $35,1M (All HQ costs including G&A, R&D, exploration) - 27.6m (stock-based comp.) = $7.5M - 2.0 (Net cash revenues from the plant) = $5/6M

The change in cash COGS divided by the change in revenue across the last two quarters:
($7.81M−$4.76M) / ($5.8M−$4.9M) = $3.05M / $0.9M ≈ 3x

I won't compare anything to Q1 FY26 since they experienced significant downtime as per Ryan that quarter;
but you can even compare Q4 FY25 and Q3 FY26 and get:
($7.8M−$2.8M) / ($5.8M−$3.8M) = $5.0M / $2.0M ≈ 2.5x

​So basically, each additional ton of black mass we produce increases revenues 3 times faster compared to COGS and the trend seems to be improving too.

Quick estimate shows that ABAT turns a positive EPS and becomes profitable at $15M revenues per quarter :
($15M−$7.8M) / ($8.2M−$5.8M) ≈ 3x
--> Reimbursing the current $6M quarter loss and covering the COGS increase)

My gut tells me it's happening by Q2 or Q3 FY 2027 (Dec. 26 Q or March 27 Q), accounting with recent favorable pricing for lithium and nickel.

The stock has been running hard since American Battery Technology published their Q3 2026 financial results.

Institutionals ownership has been going crazy last three quarters and they’re still loading right now fueling the rally.

This is now sitting at more than 40% for a 500m$ company, which is a bit unusual.

ABAT is reporting almost 8m$ quarter, positive gross margin. Immensely undervalued, should re-rate in the coming weeks.

8.5m revs, 6.5m Cash COGS next Q.

(That's the post, will delete if wrong)