u/Livernomore

AEVEX has managed to begun to differentiate itself from the peer group, in the wrong ways.

Bonus for 2Q 2026 release…….an acquisition. One point to note in the report is a decline in funded backlog (expected) that the company will have to address with new contract awards that are yet to be won/disclosed

So far the reports of the other publicly traded companies in the space have been positive and received well by the market. AVEX likely been rising in sympathy, and also with the expectation of business momentum and a solid report. What could be some new developments that are disclosed? I wonder about international gov’t contracts.

Seems like this is the next step in this industry, now that the DoD funds are flowing and more companies are now public. Starting to roll-up the smaller players, developing scale, and reducing the number of autonomous system platforms to simplify the offerings.

More to come for other drone manufacturers?

Has anyone seen any traditional, paid, RIVN advertising yet? Yes, there is news coverage and plugs/reviews on social media, but what about the conventional ad modes like paid print or broadcast? If it’s out there, it’s certainly not at scale. How many brands with sales approaching 10B annually spend almost nothing on traditional print/broadcast media. Think about all of the automotive industry advertising spend and how our little company is circumventing that and saving $$ while still having the word get out there and building a brand. I just want to commend the team for showing us all that it can be done, for thinking outside the box, and for once again proving that they know how to create value by doing it their way.

Here we go…….

…Are RAP1 benefits.

The sector caught a bid today with some sharp moves higher. Is this a dead cat bounce or will there be follow-through? Hard to know with the trend following and factor based trading going on. The whole thing feels high frequency and anyone’s guess what the models key off of for inflection points and trend reversals or continuations.

Could be an interesting play for the bounce. Noticing the option volume has been picking up recently with the selloff, as an aside. Maybe we go down to 12-12.50 from here, but this is starting to get real interesting coming into earnings……..

Over 8mm shares traded today - about half on the closing print. Stock has been under major selling pressure in the last week. Other drone companies more muted moves. Thoughts?

From StreetInsider:

“Rivian Automotive's $1.2 billion stock offering attracted strong interest from large investors, with the top 10 participants acquiring 75% of available shares, according to a Bloomberg report Wednesday.

The offering received more orders than shares available. The largest 25 investors secured 95% of the shares in the offering.”

If you like the story, why pay 20$ when you can pay $15.50? No brainer.

Doesn’t seem like there is confidence in the business growing and being able to replace Ukraine revenues that are slated to come off in 2027

So that’s out of the way now.

Posted the CNBC excerpt earlier today that highlighted the market is expecting more dilution from RIVN to fund the remainder of it’s growth path until profitability. The question remains, how much dilution was the market anticipating and how does this raise compare to that expectation. Also, how does the company characterize the offering - as far as what do they anticipate any future needs are (or are not). There is still a meaningful valuation lid on this company, and the real question (that is at this point unknowable until we know) is how this equity raise impacts that lid - does it tighten it or loosen it. Love the setup at this level, think it’ll help relieve and possibly quell the extreme fears of stifling financial stress for the rest of the ramp until the GA plant comes online.

Let the games begin……..

More traction on gov’t/int’l contracts, manufacturing expansion, and mgmt communication on strategy/roadmap.

If they can set the tone and work to restore credibility after the IPO/secondary whiff, should be a nice setup into the end of the year and into 2027.

AEVEX mentioned in this article as one of four “battle tested” publicly traded drone companies available for investment. Highlight the risk to 2027 revs from Ukraine (analyst cited up to 50% of revs are at risk) but also mention relatively low valuation. Importantly, while Barron’s (and especially the pieces and opinions of author Al Root) is perennially low quality and effectively worthless for a thoughtful investor, they capture the growing focus on drone capabilities and the shifting US defense budgets in that area. What is missing are the international sovereign demands that will also be scaling up, think any country that has a border or shoreline to defend/protect.