u/Livernomore

Let the games begin……..

More traction on gov’t/int’l contracts, manufacturing expansion, and mgmt communication on strategy/roadmap.

If they can set the tone and work to restore credibility after the IPO/secondary whiff, should be a nice setup into the end of the year and into 2027.

AEVEX mentioned in this article as one of four “battle tested” publicly traded drone companies available for investment. Highlight the risk to 2027 revs from Ukraine (analyst cited up to 50% of revs are at risk) but also mention relatively low valuation. Importantly, while Barron’s (and especially the pieces and opinions of author Al Root) is perennially low quality and effectively worthless for a thoughtful investor, they capture the growing focus on drone capabilities and the shifting US defense budgets in that area. What is missing are the international sovereign demands that will also be scaling up, think any country that has a border or shoreline to defend/protect.

Getting interesting here - everyone post-ipo is in the red, thin float, green shoe not closed for another couple of weeks. Implied vol over 100 as well.

Two upcoming conference presentations on the 2nd and 3rd. Thinking it’s all about executing to plan into the end of the year for R2 deliveries, rolling out already announced autonomy+ features, incorporation of new hardware (chip/lidar), and the wildcards of software licensing deals to be announced. Not anticipating any volume change announcements (large EDV fleet customers, bumping up expected R2 #’s) due to capacity constraints until GA gets up and running. Not anticipating a meaningful step-function change in trading range until/unless there’s more confidence on ability of the company to self-finance and take additional (dilutive) capital raises off the table. Refinancing their debt would also be accretive. It could be a tough market environment (rising rates, mean reversion, unwinding of speculative froth) while all this is going on in the next 18 months.

What else are you keeping your eyes on? To pre-empt those who know who you are, BESIDES PROFITABILITY - we all already know about that one, ad nauseam, so save it.

If GOOG is to Waymo, then AMZN is to __________……….

And yes, Waymo’s last funding round was at a 126B valuation.

Contrary to popular retail investor belief, short positions/trades are not just for fueling campaigns to put downward pressure on stock. Just putting that out there since there’s a lot of conspiratorial tendencies on this sub.

Can also be used by market makers to provide liquidity in the stock and option markets, for hedging of stock and option positions, for pair trades, etc.

A falling price could actually have something to do more with other factors, or multiple factors, not just alleged, villainous hedge funds shorting the stock to make the price go down.

Herein lies the difference. A lot of posting about “the stock won’t move appreciably higher until there is profitability………” when the next leg up will likely occur when/if there is the perception of profitability - i.e. the consensus view is there is a valid path without meaningful dilution or balance sheet risk. Not there yet……..