I built a playoff model before Round 1 and just tested it through two full rounds — 9/12 series correct so far.
The point of the model was not to predict every series perfectly. It was to separate structural contenders from teams that only look good in the regular season.
My main takeaway after two rounds: the model is very good at identifying large structural mismatches, but it struggles more in coin-flip series where one player can swing the entire matchup.
A few things the model seems to capture well:
- shot creation under playoff pressure
- defensive scalability across series
- weak-link exposure
- clutch decision-making
- roster optionality
A few things it still misses:
- matchup-specific solutions
- individual playoff variance
- in-series injuries
- momentum / confidence shifts
The biggest lesson so far is this:
The model understands systems, not solutions.
That’s why it’s been strong on the obvious series, and weaker when a specific player or matchup changes everything.
I wrote the full report card here: https://open.substack.com/pub/atakankaraoban/p/the-playoff-viability-model-conference?r=6fb0sd&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
Curious what people think:
In playoff basketball, what matters more — team structure or elite individual variance?