u/MadGenderScientist

By "autonomous weapon," I mean a robot which can dispense deadly force without a human pulling the trigger.

Examples include:

• CIWS with safeties off, other sentry autoturrets.

• Drones and loitering munitions with on-board target detection algorithms.

• Robot dogs with guns mounted on them (like that recent Chinese video.)

• *Terminator-*style killer robots.

Examples do not include:

• Sentry turrets with a human finger on the trigger.

• FPV drones.

• Bomb disposal robots.

Some of these already exist; the rest AI will soon make possible. There will be intense military pressure to deploy them - they keep human soldiers out of fire, we need them because China will build them too, etc. But they allow the automation of a good deal of violence, concentrating power and circumventing the conscience.

I tend to think we'll need them for defense, but we really ought to negotiate an arms treaty for offensive use. I also strongly object to replacing human cops with Atlases, since that could swiftly lead to an authoritarian dystopia. But if cops have them, I think we the people should have them too, under 2A.

Thoughts?

I make the following assumptions:

1. Slow-ish but exponential takeoff of RSI.

2. RSI leads to AGI then to ASI.

3. AGI, maybe early ASI, are relatively aligned to the objectives of the companies which created them.

4. Multiple labs will likely develop RSI but one will (exponentially) outpace the others.

5. News of RSI will not stay secret for long. Techniques may stay secret somewhat longer.

6. RSI will occur at a major AI company, either in the US (more likely) or China (less likely but possible.)

7. The above will happen in <10 years if not <5.

---

Given these assumptions, which I think are fairly reasonable, how's it play out?

If US: How would OAI or Anthropic react to achieving RSI? What would Sam Altman or Dario Amodei do? How much power over the companies would the US government exert? How would our political leadership react? What policies would the current administration enact? How would China react to news of US achieving RSI?

If China: How would their AI companies and CEOs react? Would the corporate side have any influence, or would CCP 100% call the shots? What policies would they enact? How would the US react to news of China achieving RSI?

Discuss!