Backtesting feels like a trap and I think traders rely on it too much
Backtesting is the first thing everyone does and also the thing most likely to mislead you. You run a strategy over three years of data, the equity curve looks great, so you go live - and it falls apart in a month. The issue is that historical data is clean. Spreads are averaged out, slippage is ignored, liquidity conditions are frozen in time. Real markets breathe. They change microstructure, broker conditions shift, volatility regimes rotate. A strategy optimized for 2021 gold volatility has no reason to work the same way in 2024. cTrader's visual optimizer makes it easy to stress-test across parameter ranges, which helps - but even that is still working from historical assumptions. The traders who seem to last are the ones who treat backtesting as a starting point for a hypothesis, not proof that the strategy works. Forward testing on a demo account for weeks before going live seems obvious, but most people skip it because the backtest already told them what they wanted to hear. Is anyone here genuinely skeptical of their own backtests, or do you still treat a good curve as a green light?