u/MathematicianWarm920

I hesitate to name the pundits commenting on the Iran business but Robert Pape is very establishment and main-stream.

At https://youtu.be/8qIsQM1RsmQ?t=2316 - on-line 12th Aug 2026 - he says "7 in 10 there will be a limited ground operation" in the next period (by which he seems to mean 60/90/120 days).

And 1 or 2 in 10 chance that this will go global.