Saw this yesterday, but looks like the 13G filing was on Aug 4th. Another big name that owns Bloom Energy stock:
https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001664703/17f630e9-7273-4fad-81b8-4712ed6141d9.pdf
Fintel has an easier way to see it:
https://fintel.io/so/us/be/jane-street-group-llc
And the fuller picture of institutional owners:
Looks like Bloom is trying to put out press releases to perhaps do what investors are hoping: have better Public relations.
Disclaimer: not financial advice. I am long BE stock. Do your own research. These are just my ideas.
What a few weeks, and what an earnings report. (Seems like the roller coaster is not over!)
Bloom blew away consensus expectations and my own expectations with their Q2 2026 earnings report. Revenue, gross margins, GAAP earnings, adjusted earnings, free cash flow. All of it. The magnitude of the beat was shocking.
Management has been sandbagging for a few quarters now. It's been long enough that I need to start giving them some credit: I was previously using MTAR supply projections to estimate what Bloom would sell, and that worked well until growth started accelerating faster and faster. So, now I need to give them more credit, and I've assumed that Bloom sells everything that their suppliers provide (I'm looking at hot boxes). So, I've updated my projections based on MTAR capacity that I'm estimating based on what they said a couple quarters ago and my estimate on their market share vs the Taiwan supplier.
My estimates for next quarter Q3 and FY 2026, although I may also be low because I'm using MTAR guidance from a couple quarters ago for my estimates:
Revenue: $1.07B (107% Yoy, but flat QoQ), and $4.155B
GM: 33.7%, and 34.0%
MWs: 294 MW, and 1.064 GW
EPS: $0.35, and $1.79
adj EPS: $0.49, and $2.47
My estimates end up within BE management 2026 guidance range, but on the higher end, except for EPS. In order for EPS to be within guidance range, I would need to increase my sales and / or margins, or there would need to be a lot more one-time adjustments. So my gut is telling me that management is probably still sandbagging with their updated guide, and that my estimates are probably too low... The MTAR capacity plan I'm basing my estimates on has probably changed and we just don't know as they've stopped updating.
The fair value I get to is around $280 for end of 2026. (If I increase my terminal discount rate to model for more risk, I get to around $250 for the end of 2026.)
Something I liked seeing this quarter: the "related party" revenue was very low this quarter. That's something I've been watching ever since they got the Brookfield JV (I've mentioned it a few times). But this quarter it looks like the revenue was greatly supported by sales to a new financing partner (without JV is appears), which leads me to believe that the the new non-Bloom related customer took custody of the fuel cells. I'm looking forward to next quarter. Especially looking forward to hearing about progress on some of the potential deals that others on this subreddit have poster about (I'm especially interested in how the Spanish project progresses). We need a running tally of these projects...
How I think about the long term picture:
When it comes to demand, I think that the market is in solid position: while AI is the current theme, electrification is growing globally and the market is massive. This has 3 pieces: one is that less developed countries are electrifying and need net new generation. Second is that there's electrification in developed countries where non-electric energy consumption is transitioning, like with electric vehicles. Third, old electric generation that's reaching end of life in developed countries need to be replaced. These are all trends that are accelerating, so demand should be strong for the next 10+ years.
Then direct DC power rather than AC to DC conversion will help Bloom since their SOFC is natively DC. Removes inefficiencies from the electric system, and reduces amount of transformers required.
GEV moving forward with their own SOFC platform is an indication of where things are headed. A big player like that trying to move into the space is a much better signal (now it's not only the small speculative players like Ceres, Fuel Cell Energy, Plug, Ballard).
And as if hydrogen picks up over the next few years in Europe (Europe desperately needs to move away from "imported fuel" based energy), then that's an entire other market and revenue opportunity that I have not considered in my model. What makes hydrogen attractive for the future: overbuild solar and wind, use excess (intermittent) generation to power electrolyzers and product hydrogen that can be stored, then use that hydrogen in fuel cells (either near the PV /wind or far away since hydrogen can be transported) to generate "base load" and compensating electricity (that offsets solar / wind intermittency). Europe desperately needs more generation that doesn't depend on imported fuel, even if it's just for the extra electricity needed to power air conditioners it will need for more frequent and intense future heatwaves lol!
As for my thoughts on the recent short reports: I disagree with how the analysis was done and presented. For another post...
Disclaimer: not financial advice. I am long BE stock. Do your own research. These are just my ideas.
EA dropping out of the S&P500 has been speculated for a while due to being taken private. And there would likely need to be a replacement that’s “off-cycle” ahead of the usual quarterly one in September in the S&P500. BE had been rumored for being added since the previous quarter earnings and now has an even stronger case for it.
And BE being added would potentially create a large amount of buying pressure on the stock, pushing it up.
And the stock going up would be bad for shorts (I think there were around 19M shares still short last I checked).
Now, a couple weeks after 2 firms put out short reports, one of those firms put out a second short report. Kind of weird to me:
-Why wasn’t the entire analysis included in the first report?
-The second report has a date of July 30th.
-S&P announced the replacement company for EA in the S&P500 on July 31st (it wasn’t Bloom). (Did the reports impact the choice?)
-Looking at the author list for both reports, the first one has 5 authors listed. The second, only 1 author. The other 4 dropped off. Why? Was it rushed? Another reason?
-The authors that dropped off are the most prominent ones from the first report. (The only author remaining is the only one with a blank bio, aside from publication list, on the firm’s website out of the 5.)
-The first results from a quick Google search indicate that the remaining author is a college student (unless there’s someone else with the same name + affiliation with same firm). So why did the senior authors drop off?
Maybe there’s perfectly reasonable reasons for all this and I’m probably reading too much into things… But the whole thing doesn’t seem quite right to me… (Also, I disagree with the conclusions in the reports but that’s for another post.)
Wondering if anyone else noticed the same thing?
Anyways, as always, do your own research. Not financial advice. Just speculation based on things I noticed.
Disclaimer: not investment advice. I’m long BE. Do your own research.
This will be very short because I only have a few minutes before the earnings call.
My estimates:
Revenue $759M
EPS 0.31$
Adj EPS 0.43$
MW estimate: 210 MW
GM: 29.1%
FCF: -$258M
What a crazy few weeks. My fair value is about $224 for end of 2026.
I hope to be pleasantly surprised!
Hi all. MTAR has investor meetings from July 7 to 10 in Singapore. Apparently they’ll be discussing their Bloom Energy backlog. Wondering if anyone in the subreddit is there or plans on being there. Any insights from this set of meetings would be tremendously helpful to get better sales estimates.
Hey all--unlike my previous posts, this one isn't going to be about any analysis or speculation I've got on Bloom. Just wanted to take a moment to talk about how grateful I am for this stock.
I lost my job a couple years ago, and it was a challenging time. Then, I decided to invest in Bloom. I have expertise in science, cleantech, and in finance, so I started playing with the stock and its options when it was around $9 to $10. It was going ok, but seemed like most investors hated the stock so I questioned whether I was wrong a lot.
Eventually, what I realized I missed from work (aside from a salary that paid the bills), was thoughtful discussion. I needed to be right because I couldn't afford being wrong so I wanted to stress test my thinking. A few months later, I decided to start posting my ideas on Reddit hoping for discussion that would help me refine my thoughts.
Unfortunately, most most of my early posts were removed by mods on /WSB, /Stocks, etc, or derided. So no thoughtful discussions there. But https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/ was one subreddit where there seemed to be smart folks who wanted to engage constructively. And I appreciated that because I found out what I wanted most was to be able to express my ideas. Then this subreddit has had a lot of smart people exchanging ideas which has been wonderful.
Now, here we are at a point where the stock has gone about 35x from when I started trading it. And I just wanted to take a moment to say thank you to the stock and all who've engaged constructively. THANK YOU.
The stock has been a blessing because it's helped me pay rent, and bills. So I'm tremendously grateful for it. The job market continues to be tough so the stock has been a lifeline. Sometimes I wish I still had a job so I wouldn't have needed to manage risk (which has meant trimming along the way). But then, I probably wouldn't have felt the need to invest in Bloom. So it's probably all a wash lol.
While the job market's been tough, so I'm still doing risk management, I can't be too upset given that the stock has supported me. But now, I'm looking for new ideas.
A bit of a crossroads and trying to figure out "what's next" as I don't think Bloom is going to do another 35x, and AI is just going to keep replacing more jobs that I'm qualified for lol.
I thought maybe a new subreddit for idea generation and fundamental analysis? But it's hard to organize by ticker. Maybe combining with a substack to be able to organize the ideas + add discussions on Reddit? I still love the company, but trying to plan ahead for the next thing for if/when momentum cools someday...
Would love any ideas anyone here has. Or if anyone else has a story, would love to hear as well. And if neither, then thanks for just reading anyway.
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your own research.
My speculation: S&P500 should announce index inclusions + removals (rebalance) this Friday (although possible they do 2nd Friday of the month). If BE is in there, very good for the stock. If BE not in there, I think stock goes down because there’s likely hedge fund positioning currently based on potential inclusion.
Actual rebalance happens 2 weeks after announcement usually.
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Do your own research.
Most folks have covered the numbers by now. I think there's agreement on the growth story.
-My sales estimates were much higher than consensus, but BE beat even those. (For full year, I had already previously expected 3.6B, and now increased further.)
-GAAP profits much higher than I expected.
-Operating expenses came in lower than I thought due to better efficiency on sales than I expected. Makes a lot of sense since fewer bigger customers are driving accelerated revenue.
-Share count was lower than I expected so that helped EPS. (This is one of the big variables that has huge impact on sell side analyst estimates, but is less predictable as it can depend on many factors.)
-Q1 gross margins were worse than I expected. So it surprises me when street keeps talking about Q1 margins being higher than expected. I expected that better factory loading would help Q1 margins more.
-Even less visibility and transparency from management.
-CEO speaks like he's the CEO of a private startup rather than CEO of a public company. Good public companies are more specific, direct, and transparent.
-The previously announced 1GW to 2GW expansion already implied >200 MW capacity ramp every quarter. And eventual 5GW is not helpful at all since that was already known as well. So the new language doesn't help those who want to anchor estimates.
-Taxes were a surprise for me: they paid almost none. Likely because of historical tax losses that they carried as credit. So that helps earnings now, and maybe through 2026, but probably not beyond. I definitely missed that and that increased GAAP profits further than I expected. I think that they'll have to start paying more typical tax rate beyond that.
-Sales for the past 2 quarters are reported slightly differently. Actually last 3 quarters, but the oldest one impact was minimal. BE reports revenue using the standard practices (and probably required method as far as I understand) based on customer acceptance. But the JV with Brookfield changes things a bit. Based on my understanding, accounting rules mean that those sales can be counted once product is ready because BE itself is a part owner of the JV receiving the product. (If I'm wrong please please comment!) So some sales are POTENTIALLY pulled forward ahead of delivery. After 2 more quarters, this will be the normalized so all the YoY growth will include this. But currently YoY might be a bit skewed. These were the notes I saw: "Including related party revenue of $373.3 million, $574.2 million and $2.8 million for the three months ended March 31, 2026, December 31, 2025, and March 31, 2025, respectively."
Looking at how I think about this compared to Morgan Stanley, my 2 year sales remain higher than MS. But I diverge on long term. Now it's all about magnitude, longevity, pace, and valuation.
I think I mostly have a valuation difference, due to perhaps share count assumptions, and growth expectations in 2028 through 2030, and margin differences. I don't see their mid-2030s, and beyond mid-2030s if they do model that (I'm modeling that growth normalizes in the mid-2030s).
Based on the changes they made to their new model vs prior model, seems like the current beat of their estimates just flowed through all their quarters: their new went up 22% for 2026, 21% for 2027, 21% for 2028, then 36% for 2029, and 36% for 2030. To me it seems like they did a "year X+1 is Y% higher than year X", and after updating the near term deliveries, increases flowed through without much nuance? I think lots of analyst do that, but I personally think it would be better to apply more discretion. So I guess I have some skepticism in how they model future years which is where the company's value comes from. The analyst that covers BE at MS changed 6 months ago or 9 months ago I think?
My 2026 base case fair value went from around 205 to around 225. But it's sensitive and if I tweak some assumptions can get to around 280 for my EoY fair value. Given sensitivity here, context is my base case EPS for 2029 is $5. So a $300 stock would mean 60x my 2029 earnings.
I'll revise up if I see hotbox data from MTAR (I estimate 65% of BE's hotbox supply) that they are accelerating their manufacturing beyond previously disclosed plan (which runs into 2028 and includes a new facility). Another potential for additional upside I haven't modeled: if BE is able to increase power generation per hotbox.
I certainly acknowledge that I'm on the more conservative side despite being very bullish on BE. My risk tolerance and ability to absorb volatility also potentially much lower than many other folks.
Given lack of transparency for forecasting ("trust me bro" isn't enough for me), controversies that management has had in the past (although now maybe they've moved from overpromising to sandbagging), and upcoming shareholder vote on something about "management exculpation" that seems to give very very broad protection to management from lawsuits (vote failed last year) I now have a bad taste at current price levels given how much growth is needed to meet expectations.
Maybe that clause that about management exculpation is something that's standard now, but I still don't like seeing it.
So, to help manage the crazy stress levels I have because of BE volatility, I've been looking to diversify.
Started positions in FTAI and SNDK ( SNDK price is painful, but I figure that just because I hesitated before and missed the big pump, no reason to miss on potential future performance). Debating whether to stay, exit quickly, or rotate further into.
Wondering if anyone has looked at FTAI? I really liked their earnings call this morning. While they do gas combustion (so more pollution than Bloom), I see some similarities to Bloom's playbook:
The business only start at end of 2026, and 2027 target was around 2 GW of generation capacity. But I'm new to the stock and so I don't know the company or quality of management. Anyone have any thoughts on it?
Also, SNDK crushed earnings and just keeps printing money. Their EPS guidance looks insane to me. Revenue was over 20% higher than consensus. Just reported quarter were $23/share (ahead of consensus $15/share). Guiding to over $30/share for next quarter (vs expected $23/share). So at $1000, the stock is just 20x of the past 2 quarters alone, and not even the full year! So if next 2 quarters after that are the same as the last 2, then that would me it's trading at a 10x multiple. I understand that memory is historically boom and bust and can crash hard because it's highly variable, but I don't see how demand slows given datacenters, and their historical competitors (Samsung, SK) who'd usually flood the market are focused on higher value products for datacenters. Maybe Western Digital could be a risk? But I think SSDs have advantages over standard hard drives. So if the opportunity is durable to do market, and more predictable (their have new contract model that forces customers to pay even if they change their mind should, and I think they said 1/3 of new contracts were using this model?), then why is SNDK trading at a trough multiple? Can anyone explain this one to me? (And why is SNDK down after hours! Expectations maybe were higher than consensus? Or maybe because there's lower expectation of beat and raise with more predictability?)
Disclaimer: not financial advice. do your own research.