u/Maximum_Anteater_806

As an idle offseason exercise, I was thinking about how the scoring distribution might shake out this year. To do that projection requires some simplifying assumptions (which might not be some people’s cup of tea). With the improved forward corps, I am assuming we get back to our 2024-25 scoring production of 3.49 goals and 5.85 assists per game, which over 84 games totals to 293 goals and 491 assists. I also assume that everyone stays healthy, which obviously won’t happen, but we don’t know who will get hurt, and this yields the best relative comparison. Finally, I assume Sandin comes back to play half the season and knocks Liljegren out of the rotation.

I am projecting a big year for Kyrou; Ovi tailing off with age; good production from Leno, Hutson, Strome, and PLD; other guys staying similar but mostly slightly down given the balanced TOI; and only one 30+ goal scorer. Here’s my guess, ordered by goals scored:

Forwards (TOIpg, G, A, P)

Kyrou (17, 35, 30, 65)

Tuch (17, 27, 32, 59)

A. Protas (17, 27, 29, 56)

Wilson (17, 26, 29, 55)

Leonard (15, 25, 28, 53)

Ovechkin (14, 21, 19, 40)

Strome (17, 18, 49, 67)

Dubois (17, 17, 48, 65)

Sourdif (14, 14, 26, 40)

I. Protas (14, 12, 25, 37)

Jenner (11, 9, 18, 27)

Beauvillier (11, 8, 9, 17)

Others (-, 5, 5, 10)

Defense

Chychrun (23, 23, 34, 57)

Hutson (21, 15, 47, 62)

Fehervary (18, 6, 19, 25)

Roy (23, 3, 18, 21)

Sandin (half) (16, 3, 12, 15)

Liljegren (half) (14, 2, 7, 9)

Desharnais (20, 1, 8, 9)

Others (—, 0, 1, 1)

For those who enjoy this, who do you see scoring more or less, and who would go down/up to make up the difference?

In Ovi’s first 5 years, he averaged 52 assists and 105 points per season, and he had 53 assists in his 6th year. After that, even though he kept scoring goals, he never surpassed 40 assists and averaged just under 30 assists per season. While still very productive as a passer, that is a pretty precipitous drop off in assists. I didn’t watch the Caps back then; what accounts for the shift?

Leno and Sourdy are RFA’s after this year. What’s your projection for their point production this year, and what kind of contracts do you think they can command if they achieve that?

I am not a cap guy, but Spotrac says we have $1.77MM in space this year. If he returns, Ovi is not signing for that, so I imagine we would deal some combination of Beau ($2.75 MM) and Frank ($2 MM) and Chucky ($3MM) to create space, and then Miro would probably take the 12F or 13F spot and we put the cheap new depth signings in the press box.

It still seems like the cap could be tight next year but manageable. Ovi and Beau are the only expiring contracts this year, and I saw the projected cap increase for 27-28 is $9.5 MM. We will probably have to deal some guys this year or next.

Even with the expensive Tuch contract, I think we are in a good overall situation because all of our long term deals are good or reasonable. Our three top forwards are all signed until 3031: PLD at $8.5 MM, Kyrou at 8.13, Wilson at 6.5 MM. Each (ages 28, 28, and 32 respectively) are good bets to maintain performance roughly commensurate with those values for much of the duration of those contracts. The contracts for our D men also are reasonable. Chychrun (28) is at 9 MM until 2033; Fehervary (26) at 6MM until 2033; Roy (31) at 5.75 MM until 2030; Sandin (26) at 4.6 MM until 2029. Again, those contracts are well scaled to projected performance. Only Tuch looks like an overpay, but that is what you have to do prudently to improve a roster and push your chips in.

We could still face a crunch soon because we will have to re-sign our young guns. With Ovechkin soon retiring and freeing up $8-12 MM, and assuming $7-10 MM per year in salary cap increases, we should be ok to resign Leno and Sourdif in 2027 as RFAs. The real crunch could come in 2028 with Hutson an RFA and Big Pro a year from UFA status and needing to be signed, followed by Lil Pro being an RFA in 2029. Even with cap increases, we may not be able re-sign Strome if he is playing well at 32 and looking in 2028 for a pay bump from his $5 MM salary. If the young’uns hit and demand big $, we may even need to shed contracts then.

But that is a ways down the road, with a lot of uncertainty in between. And if the young guys have earned big paychecks, that is a good problem to have.

Really stoked to get Kyrou; we needed a speedy point producer. Even though his production was down, he was nursing an injury, had an unusually low shot %, and only got 15:44 TOI (12th on the team). Hopefully he can be a 70+ point producer when healthy on a better team.

Was wondering where folks see him fitting on our lines.

1. I figure he would predominantly play with PLD on the first line. Although a solid defender, JK is apparently not that physical, so PLD might be a good complement.

2. Do you think he would pair well with Ovi? I was thinking his speed would draw defenders and create open spaces for Ovi. On the other hand, I’ve seen comments that he does best playing with other speedy skaters.

3. I see that JK, Wilson and Leonard are all listed as right wingers. Do you all think they can play with each other effectively?

Rumor from the Stars subreddit is that Robertson wants at least $14MM AAV and Stars can’t or won’t go above 12. Dallas wants to win now and, if they can’t meet his demand, probably wants to trade him now rather than get future picks in free agency. Assuming we could get permission from the Stars and agree to terms with JR, what kind of package might pry him loose? We would have to overpay both JR and the Stars, but no real alternative to get proven and young scoring talents.

I am repeatedly hearing now from guys like Keim and Logan Paulsen (whom I like) that the 2025 energy during preseason was off, and that the 2026 energy is more like the 2024 levels.

I didn’t hear a peep of that in 2025. The hype was high about the Commander culture of dog-ass competitors and effusive excitement about Kinlaw, Payne, Harris, Martin etc being beasts making plays all over the field. The McLaurin absence meant the D beat the O but not that the team lacked energy or had complacency. There was no hint of negativity until the Pats spanked us in the joint practice. Anyone have a similar recollection?

Gave a ride last summer to my niece on her friends, who had lathered up with sunscreen in anticipation of a day outside. I have not been able to get it out of my leather seats in my Honda Accord hybrid. Suggestions? Thanks.