u/Mcconnor8

https://preview.redd.it/327adrilpdbh1.jpg?width=1256&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c42b36d5adfe17938a4da4a86ac49e8a5b722e2f

What a stunning forecast for next week in the South, the record for most 30C+ days in a single year currently held by 1976 at 20 days (at Heathrow weather station) is very likely to be broken this year given we are already at 13 days prior to the heatwave next week.

The models have certainly trended upwards with the level of heat expected and it now looks likely we will see more 'tropical nights' where temperatures don't drop below 20C. Despite the lower humidity and dew points compared to last week this will mean cooling down houses/flats will probably be quite difficult unfortunately.

So from the latest model runs it looks quite likely (but not certain) that the heat will begin to return to the UK in earnest over the Weekend and into next week. This is due to the Azores High ridging Eastwards in our direction bringing with it warmth from the South which should start to give day by day increases in temperature as the air sinks under the high pressure.

There are already some more extreme solutions being thrown out there like this morning's GFS run for next Monday which is below. I would say currently there is a lower likelihood of temperatures rising this quickly with low-mid 30s in the South by the start of next week more favoured but it can't yet be excluded as a possibility that we see a faster rise.

https://preview.redd.it/otldo8zdr5ah1.png?width=690&format=png&auto=webp&s=262d87a151d67c078e6985a631725f36b150d17d

Nethertheless regardless how high the temperatures do get to it looks most likely we are heading into another dry, sunny and at times hot period of weather from the Weekend onwards. Though for the South East it is remaining in the mid 20s prior to then so more pleasant and bearable Summer weather on offer in the meantime.

So the Met Office high resolution model (UKV) has decided to go ballistic with the temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday on the latest run. The Met Office will be issuing a Red extreme heat warning later today and based on these charts for Wednesday and Thursday it could cover the majority of England and Wales.

https://preview.redd.it/vpwen3951s8h1.png?width=690&format=png&auto=webp&s=71d6f69111042beac4496b52a5c5009bf302b732

https://preview.redd.it/42ltpxa61s8h1.png?width=690&format=png&auto=webp&s=b4d21caa6993eab8ac67e9db5ebf32c3c8b40c5c

Almost incomprehensible that we could reach 42C but the possibility is there, 40/41C remains more likely as the absolute maximum but that is still probably going to surpass 2022 as a new all time record for the UK.

If you want to view the model output for yourself the link is here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx?run=03&charthour=1&chartname=max_temp&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)

Here are the latest maximum temperature forecasts from the high resolution modelling for Tuesday to Thursday, simply astonishing really and quite scary. I have had it confirmed that the Met Office will be issuing a Red heat weather warning in their daily update tomorrow.

https://preview.redd.it/k74b96baxn8h1.png?width=690&format=png&auto=webp&s=d4efecd68d1b312f449dbfe90b4cdfa8462f6f6e

https://preview.redd.it/mns8hqmcxn8h1.png?width=690&format=png&auto=webp&s=ccfd74e1d1fbe5c0add1851135ca1e7dbeeed667

https://preview.redd.it/c01uue6exn8h1.png?width=690&format=png&auto=webp&s=0181d51431f440d04099e38f03610298e5de3d87

The fact that this is accompanied with relatively high humidity and extreme night time temperatures means it is set to be the most notable heatwave ever experienced in the UK. The current record June temperature of 35.6C will be completely obliterated and the overall record from 2022 of 40.3C is under serious threat.

Some of the latest overnight model runs are forecasting simply wild temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday, with it being feasible that 40C is reached somewhere in southern England on Wednesday. I fully expect a Red heat warning to be issued by the Met Office as the heat won't begin to relent until the weekend alongside night time temperatures and humidity both being very high as well.

The 42C showing in the South West on Wednesday is likely overdoing it as I expect the warmest temperatures to be in London but there are no doubts what we are going to see next week is truly exceptional. The heat is also relatively widespread across the UK with it due to move further North on Thursday.

https://preview.redd.it/jtzzt1bzpk8h1.png?width=690&format=png&auto=webp&s=15fbccbfd2d9a7eb2e59129f5fa59e8133b6391d

https://preview.redd.it/5599z4t2qk8h1.png?width=690&format=png&auto=webp&s=531716304a1e088dcbb51394f1f1471044cdc6de

Considering the June record sits at only 35.6C from 1976 the temperatures being projected next week are truly unprecedented and very worrying.

The Met Office website is now predicting 40C in Reading on Wednesday.

https://preview.redd.it/qianaclvgl8h1.jpg?width=1010&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=432aef4edf6aaa3878ac2b1a428eed2c059e525b

It looks like the Met Office website temperatures are finally starting to catch up to some of the more extreme model runs there have been over the last day. It is now showing 37C in London on Tuesday so comfortably the hottest day ever in June. Current record is 35.6C from 1976.

A major issue will be the relatively high humidity and very warm nights, temperatures are likely to not drop below 20C from Tuesday until Friday for much of the South so they will be classed as 'tropical nights'.

https://preview.redd.it/g9pb5xq52g8h1.jpg?width=1196&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8e50000d7f833ab7c09f3337fc31d34cf48ec183

There is still some uncertainty as to when the heat will begin to relent with some models doing so on Friday and others keeping the heat going through next weekend. I also think there is a fair chance we record 38C or 39C somewhere in the South on Tuesday or Wednesday.

I would not be surprised at all to see a Red heat warning issued by the Met Office for some areas during next week, possibly from Tuesday until Friday.

Today's modelling has upped the temperatures even more for next week, with a few models offering crazy solutions especially considering June is supposed to be the coolest Summer month and the June record currently only sits at 35.6C from 1976.

https://preview.redd.it/yffdb8zhq98h1.png?width=1125&format=png&auto=webp&s=f520935c1c5f3812d7ea75bc787a6c5f5d79e59a

Overnight temperatures look likely to stay at or around 20C for most of the South during next week which will present major issues with indoor temperatures, not looking good. Likely we keep the heat until Saturday at least, uncertain beyond that.

It is now looking increasingly likely the June temperature record of 35.6C will be broken next week, with the latest ECM weather model run showing 38C in London on Tuesday and mid 30s throughout the rest of the South and Midlands. It also looks likely the heat will stick around for most of next week with temperatures remaining in the 30s every day for the South.

https://preview.redd.it/1w2mta36g38h1.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=f755d03fce0f8714b13779a737ba68e530e7dbb6

Good agreement in the main models today (ECM, AIFS & GFS) that a heatwave will begin on Saturday, looks likely the cool unsettled spell is coming to an end soon.

https://preview.redd.it/dg0g0x450x5h1.png?width=768&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f8a6f354f738891c1a4b129c00bd2ff2283289a

https://preview.redd.it/5jju0na70x5h1.png?width=768&format=png&auto=webp&s=88e9cd7811893ea17bde0ae3ab79b41a31e425e6

Pure insanity on the weather models for Tomorrow & Tuesday, 36C possible on both days which would be higher than the current June record of 35.6C from 1976.

https://preview.redd.it/regtie7wd43h1.png?width=690&format=png&auto=webp&s=f19e50a2c78aaae61112f053f2c89d65d1137f91

https://preview.redd.it/o3mbsr3xd43h1.png?width=690&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8810847edbf39f36a8d584d1120513e25da5cc4