10-source 2027 consensus board--what moved from Week 1 to Week 6
I build a draft sim, and its 2027 class runs on a consensus board pulled from 10 public sources: the Tankathon, Drafttek, Sporting News, PFF, CBS and Fanspeak big boards, plus mocks from Tankathon, FantasyPros, WalterFootball and CBS. I froze a copy on Sept 5, the day before Week 1, and re-ran it this weekend. Six weeks in, here's what moved and what didn't.
Ranks are the talent consensus unless I say "mock." A * means I added my own adjustment on top of the sources for an injury or suspension. Everything else is the sources moving on their own.
QB room (Sept 5 → Oct 11)
- Arch Manning 3 → 4. Still the #1 pick in the mocks. 19/31 for 260 and 3 TD against Oklahoma, but two fourth-quarter picks, one a pick-six, in the 27-24 loss. Kiper and Reid now have him sliding toward Day 2. The boards have barely moved.
- Dante Moore 4 → 9. In concussion protocol since the USC hit on Sept 26. He missed UCLA, Raiola got benched in a 17-15 loss, and Lanning won't commit to Moore playing again this season. The drop is from the sources. I added a medical flag but left his rank alone.
- Trinidad Chambliss 49 → 21. Wasn't in a single mock on Sept 5. Now QB5 on the boards. 20/30 for 213, 3 TD and a rushing TD against Vanderbilt.
- CJ Carr 19 → 18, Julian Sayin 13 → 19. Both keep putting up clean lines (Carr 14/20, 3 TD vs Stanford; Sayin 4 TD vs Maryland), and the boards have them flat or drifting.
- Darian Mensah 39 → 28. 15 TD, 0 INT through five games. He's mock #6 and talent #28, the biggest board-vs-mock gap in the class. I'd been nudging him up; I took that off this week because the boards finally got there on their own.
- Drew Mestemaker 26 → 31. 304 and 2 TD against UCF, and he still slid.
- LaNorris Sellers 46 → 48. Fell to 58 after the fumbles at Kentucky, then 23/35 for 279 and 4 TD at Florida pulled him back.
- Sam Leavitt 83 → 109. Healthy and still starting. The strip-sack in the overtime loss at Kentucky did it. The mocks still have him 31.
Non-QB risers: Samson Okunlola (OT, Miami) 138 → 70. Princewill Umanmielen (EDGE, LSU) 118 → 65. Luke Reynolds (TE, Virginia Tech) 141 → 92. Boubacar Traore (EDGE, Notre Dame) 98 → 67, with a sack and an INT vs Stanford. Bear Alexander (DT, Oregon) 107 → 79. Chris Cole (LB, Georgia) 57 → 41, with 8 tackles, a sack and 2.5 TFL at Alabama. Charlie Becker (WR, Indiana) 21 → 12.
Fallers: Nyck Harbor (WR, South Carolina) 92 → 132. Brice Pollock (CB, Texas Tech) 66 → 106. Rasheem Biles (LB, Texas) 36 → 56. OJ Frederique Jr. (CB, Miami) 65 → 97* with the shoulder. Isaac Brown (RB, Louisville) 75 → 98, though he's climbing again after 235 yards and 2 TD against Florida State.
The Dylan Stewart round trip: 6 → 16 → 8. He punched Alabama's TE, got a one-game SEC suspension plus an indefinite one from Beamer, and had zero sacks at that point. Beamer reinstated him Friday and he got a sack in his first game back at Florida. I pulled my adjustment off him, and he's nearly back where he started.
Not on any board on Sept 5, now top 100: Reed Harris (WR, Arizona State) 60, Kingston Lopa (S, Cal) 71, Devan Thompkins (DT, Alabama) 88
Shape of the consensus top 32: 7 QB (up from 5), 5 OT, 4 EDGE, 4 CB, 3 WR (down from 5), 3 DT, 2 TE, 2 RB, 1 S, 1 LB. The QBs came out of the receiver room.
My take: the mocks and the boards disagree most about the quarterbacks. The mocks still have Manning first overall while the analysts call him a Day 2 guy, and they have Mensah at 6 while the boards say 28. I think the boards are slow on Mensah and too generous on Manning, but I'd like to hear the case for the other side.