u/New-Lettuce-6154

I'm a huge Badger sports fan and run a sports analytics website. I'm not touting, I'm pouting. My model is predicting the Badgers to have 5 to 7 wins (likely toward the lower end of the range). The offense (QB, RB, O-line) has to be better, right? Right? Are these numbers off base? Finishing 17th out of 18 in the B10 and a coin flip to beat the Gophers...Is it wrong to say that I miss Graham Mertz? Too soon? Someone inject some optimism into this post.

https://preview.redd.it/kkm3h96sigfh1.png?width=1358&format=png&auto=webp&s=36e31052ad2711c255bc4198d947261c65926652

https://preview.redd.it/g278m8cxigfh1.png?width=1316&format=png&auto=webp&s=febb89e7899aefd564872f50dd14a7f689b52e2e

The Mets roster is talented. I see them at #12 as far as the roster talent, but depending on the day, they have nearly the worst record in the majors. The answer is that nearly all of the players are having their worst career year, this year.

Eighteen players had enough prior MLB history to evaluate. Five are having their worst qualifying season (Lindor, worst of 11 seasons; Semien, worst of 12; Torrens; Cionel Pérez; Senga) and four more are at their second-worst: Bichette, Baty, Devin Williams, Peralta. Half the measurable roster, at or next to a personal floor, at the same time. Two teammates setting floors on 11- and 12-year careers simultaneously is what made me double-check everything.

Then I checked whether the underlying Statcast performance looked equally bad. For seven of the nine, it doesn't:

Results substantially worse than expected: Semien (.268 wOBA on .308 xwOBA, the team's biggest gap), Lindor (.315/.346), Bichette (.298/.327), Baty (.281/.306), Peralta (5.01 ERA on a 3.83 xERA), Williams (4.54 on 3.44).

Bad underlying year made worse by results: Senga (8.85 ERA on a 5.42 xERA: the biggest gap on the roster, and the 5.42 alone would still be his career worst).

Results roughly supported: Torrens (.278/.281), Cionel Pérez (5.50/5.56).

It's not all bad. Three Mets are having their career-best seasons. All relievers whose ERAs are outperforming their xERAs (Raley 1.96 on 3.51, Minter 1.71 on 3.49, Weaver 1.98 on 2.80). Same roster, bad variance at one end, favorable variance at the other.

Quick method note: hitters on wOBA/xwOBA (prior seasons ≥200 PA, 2026 ≥100), pitchers ERA/xERA (≥40 IP prior, ≥20 in 2026); "career-worst" needs 2+ qualifying prior seasons; snapshot and stats through games of July 24. Expected stats measure contact quality; they don't cleanly separate variance from positioning, sequencing, health, or aging. Soto, for the record, was at .399/.421 through July 24, a completely normal Soto season while all of this happened around him.

If you're the GM. What do you do? Is this season bad luck, bad roster construction, poor coaching, or some of each? Does this make you more patient with the core, or are this many simultaneous career lows a warning in themselves? What would it change about your deadline approach?