
A time when the market revolted against a tax cut
Contrary to popular belief, markets don't actually like massive tax cuts. This seems counter intuitive to what I suppose is everyone on all sides of the political spectrum. How can tax cuts displease investors? Don't they want to make a lot of money?
This story I found absolutely fascinating and I think there's a lesson in it about the unfortunate state of our current financial and economic system.
The United Kingdom, like many countries in the world is suffering from a high debt to GDP ratio of about 96%. This is lower than the US, Italy, France and Japan, but its enough to seriously threaten the stability the UK economy.
In September 2022 during the tenure of the Conservative party, a new PM decided to do what female British PMs are known around the world for - cutting taxes on the rich. The economic philosophy is straightforward. The government reduces the slice of the economic pie it takes as taxes from the rich - allowing them to keep more of their money and spend it productively on things like buying your mortgage or shorting stocks. Poor people on the other hand would only waste this money on things like food and rent, so this trick only works when its regressively applied. Even though the government takes a smaller slice of the pie, the pie grows, so the equation balances. 20% of $100 is $20, but 16.67% of $120 is also $20. So far, standard neoliberal philosophy - deregulation and/or tax cuts boost the economy. Nothing unusual here. The plan, dubbed “The Growth Plan” was launched which would take the British economy to the Moon. Convinced by free market economists like Prof. Minford and the success of supply side economics, Liz Truss became Her idol Marge Thatcher+++and Reagan+++.
Except thats not really what happened.
You see, investors do certainly like spending less money on taxes, but they don’t like when their assets that generate that money depreciate. Because the UK is highly indebted, a lot of the assets the rich own was gilts - British “treasuries” or more commonly, bonds. Bonds are government debt. The UK issued a lot of bonds between 2008 and 2015 to get out of the GFC, and then again in 2020 during COVID. In 2022, a lot of these bonds were coming close to maturity which means the government had to pay back the bondholders the face value of these bonds or refinance them. And it is this that worried them - how will the UK government afford to pay interest on these bonds if it just aggressively cut taxes? Even if we suppose for a minute the Growth Plan would work as intended, it would be years until that smaller tax bracket generated the £45b the government was cutting. The government could not refinance these bonds without borrowing more money. More borrowing = higher interest. And this is where the house of cards came tumbling down. Istead of being the face of new le epic based tax-cutting, commie-destroying 420 bitcoin libertarian, Truss’ tenure was outlasted by a lettuce.
You see, the bond market has become the kingmaker in global politics. It determines which governments fall and which ones don’t. Bonds are boring, stable, low yield investments with fixed coupon rates (interest rates) - governments very rarely default on their debts and bonds have less volatility than stocks, meaning a well balanced portfolio is a mixture of growth based riskier investments (like stocks) and stable, low risk bonds. Bonds are supposed to be the anchor around which interest rates float. Not time preference for money or something as what Austrian school tells you. When you apply for a mortgage, its interest rate is determined by the bond market + spread + risk + other bs. Basically each bank decides whether to loan you £200k, or loan the government £200k through bonds. Bonds are stable, they don’t default, theres tons of them since the government is always borrowing, and they may yield 3-4% interest annually. So naturally you will have to beat that + spread + risk + other bs. This is why when the bond yields go up, interest rates on everything go up.
Bondholders like making money, but they don’t like the government being fiscally irresponsible. No more than banks don’t like fiscally irresponsible households. So when Truss government announced tax cuts, the Bond market was displeased. If you’re going to borrow a lot of money in the near future, and you don’t have a concrete plan on how to pay that money back in the future, the cost of borrowing (interest rate) goes up.
The whole fiasco happened as such: Bondholders started selling gilts (UK bonds) and buying treasuries (US bonds), pound depreciated rapidly relative to the dollar. Yields went up, the cost of new borrowing spiked. When bond yields rise rapidly, new bonds are issued at higher interest, making older bonds at lower interest lose value (because bonds have fixed coupon rates). Suddenly, pension funds, investment funds and portfolios started losing value on the part of their investment that was supposed to be stable and low risk. Bank of England had to step in with an emergency bond-buying measure to buy up these now-worthless bonds in what was later reported as a crisis hours away from total financial collapse of major British financial instututions. Lizz Truss sacked her finance chancellor, started walkig back her plan, but her administration was so thoroughly discredited she was forced to resign. What's kind of funny in a bittersweet depressing way, is the IMF admitted this plan will probably only fuel inequality and inflation, not growth quietly admitting under everyone's nose that the neoliberal model of tax cut driven investment surges as we have seen since 1980 don't actually work except for the very few.
And so, the bond-market asserted that it is displeased by Truss and her unfunded tax cut. Conversely, it judged for all future unfunded spending; no. And as such, all British PMs since have been terrified of doing anything to upset the true king and power behind Britain: the bondholders. It frankly doesn't matter who wins the next election, the policy is pre-decided already: nothing that would upset the bondholders, nothing that would upset the equilibrium. And since the largest bondholders are the very rich, ironically - no unfunded tax cuts on the rich.