starting at 1:42:00

Would like to share my own formula of estimating revenue target for AUR in 2030 based on public information, and then multiply by what you think is a reasonable P/S ratio, then you can estimate the market cap for AUR.

Assumptions:

1. The majority of the revenue will come from DaaS business model with Aumovio SoP starting 2027 H2 and the current Roush line and TaaS revenue will be negligible in the long run.
2. AUR charges a constant DaaS price per mile
3. AUR does not generate any other revenue other than the DaaS operation from its customers
4. The truck runs constant total milage every year
5. No major OEM partnership / AUMOVIO partnership churns
6. AUR can sell all trucks to DaaS customer that it can produce

Public Info and values we will be using:

1. AUR charges $0.85 per mile for its customer from investor town hall introduction video
2. One truck with Aurora Driver will drive 200,000 miles each year (could potentially go to 250,000 According to CFO Dave in retail investor town hall but we take conservative number here)
3. Aumovio will be able to deliver "tens of thousands (10,000) of truck each year" by CEO Chris at retail investor townhall, and production SoP starts 2027 H2 from official Aumovio earnings call

From 1 & 2, each truck can generate revenue of

Unit Truck Annual Revenue: 200,000 * $0.85 = $170,000

From 3, Suppose Aumovio can ramp up 5000 annual truck production on 2028, and 7000 annual truck production in 2029 and 10000 annual truck production on 2030, this gives

Total Truck Production: 5000 + 7000 + 10000 = 22,000 units

Total Revenue target Estimate at EO 2030:

Total Annual Revenue: 22,000 * $170,000 = $3,740,000,000 (3.7B)

Valuation with P/S ratio (and in comparison with other company of physical AI concept):

• With 100x P/S this gives 370B market cap (Example company: Waymo)
• With 50x P/S this gives 187B market cap (Example company: RocketLab)
• With 30x P/S this gives 90B market cap (Reasonable estimate I personally will give for AUR at EO 2023)
• With 15x P/S this gives 45B market cap (Example: Tesla)

Welcome any feedback and discussions. BUT

THIS IS NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE