u/NoMadPaolo

I used to blame everything. Bad entries. Wrong indicators. Unlucky timing.

Then I actually logged every trade for 6 months and the data was uncomfortable.

My losing streaks weren't caused by bad market reads. They were caused by randomly sizing up when I "felt confident" about a setup.

The numbers:

- Trades where I followed my 1% rule → avg loss per loser: $87

- Trades where I sized up because "this one feels different" → avg loss per loser: $340

Same strategies. Same market conditions. 4x the damage just from ignoring my own rules.

The math that nobody talks about:

- Risk 1% per trade → need 100 consecutive losses to blow your account

- Risk 5% per trade → need 20 consecutive losses

- Risk 10% per trade → need 10 consecutive losses

I was randomly jumping between 1% and 8% depending on how I felt. Which means some weeks I was literally 8 bad trades from zero and had no idea.

What finally fixed it: I calculate position size before I look at the chart. Not after. Not while watching price move. Before.

You decide the dollar amount you're willing to lose. Then you size the position to match that. The chart doesn't change the number.

Anyone else track this stuff? Would be curious what others see in their data.

I blew up two accounts before I figured out what I was doing wrong.

It wasn't my entries. It wasn't my indicators. It was that I had no idea how much to actually risk per trade.

I was just "buying some BTC" without thinking about position size at all.

Here's the formula that changed everything:

Position Size = (Account Balance × Risk%) ÷ (Entry − Stop Loss)

Example with real numbers:

- Account: $10,000

- Risk per trade: 1% = $100

- Entry: $65,000

- Stop loss: $63,700 (2% below entry)

- Position size: $100 ÷ 0.02 = $5,000

That's it. You're risking exactly $100 on this trade — not "some BTC", not "a bit". Exactly $100.

Why does this matter? At 1% risk you need 100 consecutive losing trades to blow your account. At 5% risk you need just 20. I was risking 15-20% per trade without realising it.

The part most people skip: your position size changes with every trade because your stop loss distance changes. A tight stop = bigger position. A wide stop = smaller position. Same dollar risk either way.

I got tired of calculating this in a spreadsheet every time so I built a free calculator: riskdesks.com

It also shows your implied leverage and R:R ratio automatically. No sign-up, no BS.

Hope this helps someone avoid the mistakes I made.