u/NoPressure_OpenSep

Bryce ranked 36th out of 43 QBs, with a 16.67% completion percentage when the receiver had less than 1yd of separation (NFL Tight Window definition) to the nearest defender while under pressure.

These attempts made up 5% of all attempts, which ranked 27th.

League Average completion percentage on these throws is 28.05% and it makes up 5.15% of all attempts.

380 INTs in regular season 2025:
30% were thrown into Tight Windows. 21% were thrown into Open Separation.
37% were under pressure. 17% were no pressure.

Of Bryce's 11 INTs:
3 were thrown into Tight Windows, 3 into Open Separation
4 under pressure, 7 no pressure.

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Perhaps the most difficult passes a QB can make, under pressure and throwing into a tight window. NFL defined as less than a single yard of separation.

While these throws don't necessarily define an entire regular season of QB performance, as they only represent 5% of attempted throws within the 2025 season these passes are completed at a league average of 28%.

This might help define QB decision making, but also understanding matchups. Clearly having a talented cast of receivers will also be balanced with the elite arm talent required to "thread the needle".

There are some clear standouts amongst this list:

Drake Maye completing a whopping 50% of passes while under pressure and into tight windows. Slightly above league average, ranking 11th in proportion to total attempts, it certainly checks the tab of elite QB performance.

Joe Burrow being Joe Cool. 2 of 3 to Tee Higgins, 2 of 6 to Ja'Marr Chase when under pressure and the receiver lacks separation, the rest of the attempts going to Gesecki, Chase Brown, and others on the offense for big plays.

Jacoby Brissett possibly using this metric as part of his holdout in Arizona. (Jacoby famously lacks an agent)

Jake Browning going under the "elite QB in waiting" radar, making an appearance near the top of this list as well as others already posted about open separation.

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I've broken down QBs targeting open receivers when not pressured and when pressured. Combining the two to get an overview on completion % when targeting open receivers reveals a lot.

Bill Belichick summarized the basic expectation of the position by stripping away advanced metrics and analytics: "As far as the quarterback goes, read the coverage, throw the ball to the open receiver, take the best matchup. That’s what it is in a nutshell". 

Well Bill, here are the advanced metrics and analytics.

Almost HALF (45.2%) of all attempts in the NFL were to open receivers in the regular season of 2025. The league average QB completes this at a rate of 84%.

Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Geno Smith, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson targeted an open receiver on over HALF of their total attempts in the regular season.

Lamar Jackson, the 2x MVP, is near the bottom of this list in completion percentage when targeting open receivers. Lamar was below league average comp % by over 6.5% despite almost 53% (rank 1) of all attempts throws going to open receivers.

Impacted by the 19 drops (not an official NFL stat) by Zay Flowers with 7 (still made the Pro Bowl) combined with Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman both having 3.

Recent Number One Overall Picks - WEEK 1 MATCHUP OF 2026

Bryce Young: Only slightly above league average in completion % at 85% despite 48.74% of all attempts going to open receivers. If you thought Dave's play-calling or receiver separation was still a major problem perhaps that is slightly debunked with this metric.

With 21 drops total mostly from TMac (8) and Chuba Hubbard (4) some blame can certainly be shifted to the highly picked rookie, and recently highly paid RB who is known to use the JUGS machine before games and practice for extra reps.

Caleb Williams: Well below league average in completion % at 76% despite almost 50% of all attempts targeting open receivers.

It would seem that Ben Johnson is still play-calling at an elite level, but with 29 drops from Monangai (6), Zaccheus (5), Swift (4), and Burden (4) this should be considered.

(DROPS: THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL NFL STAT, WHICH MEANS I CANNOT FILTER INTO REGULAR vs. POST SEASON. THESE ARE PULLED FROM PRO FOOTBALL REF)

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Are these the hardest easy throws a QB can make?

When the QB is under pressure, how often do they target the open receiver?

Shedeur Sanders targeted the open receiver while pressured in almost 20% of this attempts!?

Mac Jones completing almost 90% of his passes under pressure to the open receiver!?

League average completion percentage on on these passes 75.44% with almost 11% of all attempts while pressured targeted to the open receiver.

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We are breaking down this metric further by receiver. I've grouped them by position to compare to their peers.

As previously stated, all numbers are derived from the NFL Pro+ Film Room.

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I might decide to go back and do this for 2023 and 2024, but I'd like to focus on the most recent season as most of the receivers are coming back this year.

KEEP POUNDING!

The numbers don't tie out exactly in total number of attempts, as this doesn't include every single player who was targeted, but never targeted when BY was OPEN and NOT UNDER PRESSURE (David Moore, etc.), spiking the ball (2), and INTs (11) count in the ALL ATTEMPTS but wouldn't be needed within this table.

As promised, we are breaking down this metric further by receiver. I've grouped them by position to compare to their peers.

I might decide to go back and do this for 2023 and 2024, but I'd like to focus on the most recent season as most of the receivers are coming back this year.

KEEP POUNDING!

The numbers don't tie out exactly in total number of attempts, as this doesn't include every single player who was targeted, but never targeted when BY was OPEN and NOT UNDER PRESSURE (David Moore, etc.), spiking the ball (2), and INTs (11) count in the ALL ATTEMPTS but wouldn't be needed within this table.

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Since Bryce Young entered the league in 2023 there has been a great deal of discussion and debate every year since about under pressure throws and generally perceived lack of receiver separation.

I've used the NFL Pro+ Film Room metrics to analyze whether this has been misconstrued.

Let's break it down.

In the 2025 regular season Bryce Young completed 87.58% of his attempts to receivers while not under pressure and targeting receivers defined as open (3+ yards to nearest defender). This ranked 19th out of 45 qualified QBs. These 161 attempts amounted to 33.68% of all attempts, which ranked 23rd.

2025 Regular Season league average completion percentage on no pressure throws to open receivers was 86.78% and 34.58% of all attempts.

The scary thing is that the 2025 numbers are down from 2023, where he completed 90.06% (145 of 161) to open receivers while not pressured. This represented 30.55% of all attempts.

I broke down the Frank Reich era (weeks 1-11), where Andy Dalton brought down the average only completing 70% of his throws to open receivers while not pressured in Week 3 against Seattle.

In comparison these no pressure, open receiver attempts only represented 17.24% of Andy Dalton's 58 total attempted passes for the 2023 season.

Even with this lack of performance, QBs while Frank Reich was head coach completed 97 out of 108 passes (89.81%) which was 28.65% of the total attempted passes.

Another data point that stood out was week 4, where 59.38% of all attempts were to open receivers without pressure. Despite Bryce Young being sacked 5 times in the loss to Minnesota.

In weeks 12-18, the completion percentage dropped to 87.30%, but of total attempts this equated to 30.29% of all attempted passes.

If you were curious to 2024 Bryce Young's completion percentage to open receivers while not being pressured were very similar to 2025.

I'll be breaking down the 2025 regular season numbers for Bryce Young by receiver in my next post.

Stay tuned & KEEP POUNDING!

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Potentially defining the easiest throws a QB can make. The QB is not pressured and the receiver has open separation from the nearest defender (3+Yards).

Many factors play into QB not being pressured, and the targeted receiver being open.

The 2025 Regular Season league average completion percentage was 86.78%, with 34.58% of all sixteen thousand plus attempts made were when the QB was not pressured and the receiver was open.

The Top QB, Jake Browning, completed 95% of his attempts while not under pressure and the receiver was open. This accounted for 32% of all of Jake's 125 total attempted passes.

While Josh Allen could certainly improve in this area in terms of passes completed, Josh lead the league in the regular season with 45.65% of all attempts being not pressured and to open receivers. Kudos to Joe Brady and the rest of the offense.

All numbers within the below table are derived directly from the NFL Pro+ film room using the "No Pressure" (under the Passing Tab) and "Open Separation" (under the Receiving Tab). These metric totals only cover the QBs listed.

How does your QB rank amongst his peers?

EDIT: Sub's general feedback was sort by completion %.

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Despite the additions to the team, we must also consider the loss of an impactful player.

In the 2025 season, Rico Dowdle outgained in yards rushing the QB's passing yardage 3 times. This is an unexpected rarity as this feat (total rushing > total passing yards) only occurs roughly 8-10% of ALL games played over the last 4 seasons.

To put this into odds, to do this 3 times in a single season for a TEAM (not a single player) would occur 1 out of 1000 or 1 out of 2000 times.

Rico lead the LEAGUE in outproducing the QB (rushing to passing yards) in the 2025 season.

Rico was also much better receiver than Chuba in 2025. Looking past the sheer number of targets/attempts and completions, Bryce often targeted Rico as a checkdown while under pressure. Rico had double the number of targets while Bryce Young was pressured over Chuba.

While Bryce Young was not pressured and while Chuba was considered open by separation, there was a 78% completion percentage, while Rico was 92%.

This metric accounted for roughly 70% (27 out of 38) of Chuba's targets from Bryce Young, while Rico saw many more targets while either Bryce was pressured or Rico was not considered open. (25 out of 50)

Chuba was never targeted on a deep ball, while Rico's only deep throw from Bryce Young in the season was the go ahead TD in the Cowboys game.

The table below breaks down a large majority (over 90%) Bryce Young's regular season production while not pressured and the receiver was considered open by separation.

All metrics are directly derived from the NFL Pro+ film room and would be available for audit should you have paid access.

I will be posting additional analysis of Bryce Young and the Panthers in regards to No Pressure, Open Separation analytics as I believe this has been a misconstrued topic since at least 2023.

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