u/NormandyPark0

Quants are still putting MSFT in their the software basket short (remember this trend from earlier this year) as you see today CRM/ADBE/HUB/MSFT all down 3%+ .... now we're back to below $480 from $515 a week ago.

Maybe we're cooked until Maia 300 and Copilot Super app official announcements

Please bring DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731 to GitHub Copilot!
DeepMAI-Code-1.1-Flash is more expensive and worse than DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731:

Terminal Bench 2.1

MAI-Code-1.1-Flash: 62.9%

DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731: 82.7%

Model	Input	Input with Cache	Output
DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731	$0.14	$0.0028	$0.28
MAI Code 1.1 Flash	$0.20	$0.02	$1.20

Copilot product sprawl is ending and the super app (Copilot's version of Codex) is dropping this week or next week.

Expect MSFT to stay above 500 and rally towards 520.

Nadella announced on the FYQ4 earnings call the Copilot Super App is coming soon, which will be the next catalyst for the stock.

It's actually needed, bc at work I have to open VS Code then open the Agents window, then go back to Copilot to ask something, etc...... This is basically Microsoft's version of Codex, but likely with even more features (e.g. Teams chats). Super apps caught on along time ago in China and if done well they are great.

Besides the Super App, the next catalyst is MAI-Thinking-2 or a reasoning / coding model that actually benchmarks well. I have made other posts about this, but MAI team is pretty far behind on coding / reasoning models, although their image models are at the frontier with an amazing performance to cost ratio.

Kimi K3 basically matches US frontier labs, Deepseek V4 is ~90% of frontier intelligence at ~5% of the cost, yet MAI team (one of the most well-resourced AI teams in the world) won't submit MAI-Thinking-1 or MAI-Code-Flash to Artificial Analysis for benchmarking, which is a telling sign of how far behind they are.

I understand that MAI was first focused on lowering COGS for MS teams transcripts / image generation for Copilot (their audio and image models are at the frontier and super cost-effective, see them on Artificial Analysis), but being this far behind on coding and general intelligence is quite pathetic given their resources. Not sure what Satya is thinking.

MSFT stock is likely stuck until they can put out a model that benchmarks well

Kimi K3 now matches US frontier labs, Deepseek V4 is 90% of frontier intelligence at 5% of the cost, yet MAI team (one of the most well-resourced AI teams in the world) won't submit MAI-Thinking-1 or MAI-Code-Flash to Artificial Analysis for benchmarking, which is a telling sign.

I understand that MAI was first focused on lowering COGS for MS teams transcripts / image generation for Copilot (their audio and image models are at the frontier), but being this far behind on coding and general intelligence is pathetic given their resources.