u/Odd-Web4113

I am trying to ensure I diversity a bit into opportunities that are not just AI driven. $GRAL stock price IMO is ahead of itself in short term b/c of a favorable FDA advisory committee outcome last month that looks like it will clear the path for FDA approval early 2027. But looking at the potential over 3-4 years - this company could be doing 10mm recurring tests in 2030 annually and 5X+ the current market cap.

• The Nancy Gardner Sewell Medicare Multi-Cancer Early Detection (MCED) Screening Coverage Act was signed into law this year and takes effect on January 1, 2028; and is set to allow for screening for anyone under 68 I believe. And, more importantly it allows for one test every year.
• This is the the best in class right now in MCED space and has run 100,000's of samples. They also have a head start in industry and building out infrastructure to allow for education and testing to the masses.
• they currently charge 995 per test, but b/c of the above law, Medicare will begin to cover prob by 2029 and allow ANNUAL screening. Even if price gets reduced to 500 - we can assume a profit of $200 to the company per test - 10mm*200 = $2B earnings number. Assuming 20X - $40B vs current market cap of $6B currently. It is noted the company has no debt and cash burn lasts it through into 2030 in current state.
• Other things to consider - Samsung made a $100mm investment last year into the company to allow for distribution rights throughout Asia, which I am not even considering. So, 10mm tests per year could easily prove exceptionally conservative
• As suggested, I think it is may have gotten ahead of itself in short term and may prove choppy for 2027....but not when I look out 3-4 years for reasons I just mentioned, it appears to be a strong investment opportunity. Another play if you are more skeptical is invest in ILMN as they own just over 7% of GRAL
• I welcome thoughts, but figured this could diversify my investments a bit.

SI gives the Hawks great kudos...and loving Lester's play calling. Now, I can't believe I am saying this, but is special teams going to be our weakness this year? Candidly if the defense is as fast as they looked yesterday....I'd put in a no punting or field goal rule for the rest of the season anyway and take away that controversy.

https://preview.redd.it/tymjwatf3qmh1.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=a2d5e28cbb9cb182303f7b239c3fbf977c079afe

Family road trip memories....

With news this week on Moderna/Merck's late Phase 3 announced success on a specific melanoma cancer vaccine, it got me revisiting the blood test market.

* We keep hearing of not only this but large scale oncology pipelines from AstraZeneca, Roche, Pfizer and also Bristol Myers, it has me focusing on the screens needed to begin with for these new technologies to prove successful.
* The Nancy Gardner Sewell Medicare Multi-Cancer Early Detection (MCED) Screening Coverage Act was signed into law this year and takes effect on January 1, 2028; and is set to allow for screening for anyone under 68 I believe. And, more importantly it allows for one test every year.
* Knowing the numbers of recurring tests we could be talking about, I truly think a great bang for the buck is going to be the MCED screeners.
* GRAIL appears to me to be the front runner and has the submission to the FDA right now with Advisory Committee on September 23 as it pushes its Galleri Tests. But, it does have some hair based on its 3 year UK study results. Endpoints were mixed. We could argue bit on that, but the data from the study seemed really impressive especially the low false positives.
* Obviously we are probably 6 months away from FDA approval and then the real coverage cannot begin until 2028. But, I don't think there is any other test as wide of coverage from GRAL so I'd find it difficult to believe it wouldn't be approved due to the new law.
* I thought a discussion around this would be valuable as we figure out investments that are positioned to be true winners from the technological breakthroughs and the apparent political support.
* I do own this stock and have for about a year as I have been researching this area for full disclosure

I am looking for AI agents people have been using in the Office Co-Pilot world for my team and myself to help with ensuring we leverage and scale our time as best as possible. So far we have produced a couple agents that do have some staying power with my team:

1. RFP Response agent. We were able to upload many DDQ/RFP response questionnaires we provided historically and now we use that history to be able to quickly answer the hundreds of questions we get from prospective clients as well as recurring clients. This one has had reasonable staying power and continues to work. Also the time savings is immense and accuracy is surprisingly good.

2. Email Follow up - We have a recap that looks at emails sent over last 21 days to ensure we are following up with clients / prospects if they haven't answered or next steps haven't been established over a certain amount of days. This one requires more tweaking than number 1 above b/c we are always finding unique situations falling through this screener.

One that we will work on this week is simply an automatic follow up email from follow-up items established during our recorded TEAMS meetings. That would help a lot, and don't think it will be too difficult to do. Certainly welcome ideas on this one.

Anyway, we are looking for other good ideas to help my team focus on revenue generation and less on administrative tasks. I appreciate the advice.

With news this week on Moderna/Merck's late Phase 3 announced success on a specific melanoma cancer vaccine, it got me revisiting the blood test market.

• We keep hearing of not only this but large scale oncology pipelines from AstraZeneca, Roche, Pfizer and also Bristol Myers, it has me focusing on the screens needed to begin with for these new technologies to prove successful.
• The Nancy Gardner Sewell Medicare Multi-Cancer Early Detection (MCED) Screening Coverage Act was signed into law this year and takes effect on January 1, 2028; and is set to allow for screening for anyone under 68 I believe. And, more importantly it allows for one test every year.
• Knowing the numbers of recurring tests we could be talking about, I truly think a great bang for the buck is going to be the MCED screeners.
• GRAIL appears to me to be the front runner and has the submission to the FDA right now with Advisory Committee on September 23 as it pushes its Galleri Tests. But, it does have some hair based on its 3 year UK study results. Endpoints were mixed. We could argue bit on that, but the data from the study seemed really impressive especially the low false positives.
• Obviously we are probably 6 months away from FDA approval and then the real coverage cannot begin until 2028. But, I don't think there is any other test as wide of coverage from GRAL so I'd find it difficult to believe it wouldn't be approved due to the new law.
• I thought a discussion around this would be valuable as we figure out investments that are positioned to be true winners from the technological breakthroughs and the apparent political support.
• I do own this stock and have for about a year as I have been researching this area for full disclosure

I read a ton of reviews on finding a laptop suited for me and many came through this community board. So, thank you all for your comments. I figured I'd give some quick feedback if anyone else is looking for a similar computer.

• This is used for personal use at home. Mostly browsing the web and making spreadsheets. We do code in colab and mess around with different AI platforms. Don't use the PC for gaming.
• Bought 16GB of RAM. Really way more than I needed unless you really are a gamer. I have this connected to 2 other screens. So I had on my 3 screens - the Bears pre-season game on yesterday, running some python script for stock screening and had websites like realtor.com up that that requires a lot of processing b/c of the amount of maps and pictures it loads. All worked smoothly and I didn't hear the fan kick on at all. NO NOISE.
• The one thing I was reading with HP and OmniBooks is it is has hinge problems (funny comment I read was that is what HP stands for...."hinge problems"). But I also read that is not for the X version. On this version, the hinges seem like they are built well. We will find out over time as this is a very big screen.
• I really thought I was going to go for the XPS 14 with similar specs (but obviously smaller screen), but everything kept pointing me to this direction. With exception the XPS certainly looks more elegant.
• Anyway, I started this process and thought for sure a Dell, maybe Acer or Lenova for my PC needs. But after 3 hours of researching it, I changed my opinion and can't believe I bought an HP b/c I never had. I just retired a Surface Pro and I have invested in a few of those in the past. But, I can say this HP is impressive so far. It does list for 1,500...but you can find it for $900 ($600 off) at best buy right now.
• Finally with that price reduction and some other back to school sales, I did take the specs and run though both chatgpt and gemini and both pointed to this one across a multitude of factors. But, for the current price, it really tipped it in HP's value.

So far - a very happy HP client.