trying to have a measured take on the potential of this outbreak getting out of control
so, given this virus has been known for 30+ years and there have been a number of cases ever year, its had chances to start sustaining transmission but was never able to really do so except for a couple isolated cases and the famous birthday party.
do we think that we've just as a collective been getting consistently lucky year over year, that despite it seems like a hundred or so cases a year in South America, including some close to Buenos Aries, that it never managed to take hold with community spread? or is it more likely to be the whole cruise ship thing, lots of close quarters, recycled air, they are known petri dishes, basically a worst case scenario for spread of any virus, much more so than the average community setting?
one more thought i have is, the R0 of 2+ was based on the birthday party case, correct?, but is that what has been observed collectively on the ground in south america? there are many cases a year that don't pass it on to anyone(again, including some in bigger cities closer to the capital), those affect the real R0 value too don't they?
I don't want to act like I'm downplaying it, I am just thinking out loud, I am concerned because there are enough unknowns to be concerned about, I don't want to see this get out of control, but I also think you can end up with an outcome between this fizzling out before 20 cases, and reaching pandemic status, we could see a few dozen more cases before its stamped out too, or maybe local epidemics that will difficult to contain for a while before being resolved
Just want to state i have 0 knowledge about virology, just trying to extrapolate the available information and see what other people think