u/Patient_Scarcity4270

Based on today’s 10-Q.

Floor: $4.50-5.50 (15-20% probability)
Base: $9.00-12.00 (45-50% probability)
Target: $16.00-22.00 (20-25% probability)

Weighted 12-month expected price: $10.50-11.80

Catalyst calendar:
RBC Conference June 3.
July 4 DOE program.
Annual Meeting June 11.

30.3M warrants outstanding.
Strike: $8.24. Current price: ~$8.15.

You’re at the threshold right now.
At $18, company forces redemption.

28.5% dilution hits the market.
Painful short-term.
But: they collect $248M in additional cash.
Runway extends to 10+ years.

For long-term holders — it’s actually bullish.